Latest Monring Call/Muhlenberg College Tracking Poll-PA--Toomey 47% Sestak 42%

[WI_DEM]

(the tracking poll will be up and down during these days just like the Gallup tracking poll where Obama is 42% one day and then 49% a few days later):

The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll finds Pat Toomey (R) back out in front of Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the state's closely watched U.S. Senate race, 47% to 42% with 11% still undecided.

http://politicalwire.com/

[dennis4868]

1. I hope...

Sestak is not losing his momentum......Sestak has got to bash Toomey over Toomey wanting to add a trillion to the deficit in order to help millionaires with tax cuts.....

[FBaggins]

2. They have an incredibly small daily sample.

It looks like they're taking a 4-day rolling average with a total sample size of just over 400 people.

If you're calling 100-110 people per day, each day's sample is going to be incredibly volatile.

Having said that... it's just as likely that it was their original poll that was off. RCP seems to be dropping each day's number as the new day is released, but IIRC, this poll started at D+3... then was D+1 the next day... then tied for a day (or two?) then R+3 for two days straight... and now R+5. Obviously not what one would like to see.

[Cosmocat]

3. Not great news ...

Just gotta get Sestak into that + or - two points going into the election and he has a good shot ...

[FBaggins]

4. They have him down by eight this morning.

No need for a new thread... the story is the same. Incredibly volatile polling due to tiny daily samples. Worth noting that they don't balance by party affiliation - and today's sample was three points more republican than yesterday's... so no real change.

There's enough here to doubt that Sestak was ever really ahead, but it's still likely that he has closed the gap significantly.