PPP: CO-Governor: Hickenlooper (D) 47% Tanceredo (I) 44% Maes (R) 5%

[WI_DEM]

This seat is no longer the slam-dunk for Dems it once seemed:

Tom Tancredo continues to surge as Dan Maes' support completely collapses in the Colorado Governor's race and John Hickenlooper now leads the race by only a 47-44 margin with Maes getting 5%.

Hickenlooper's been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP's polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow.

Hickenlooper remains by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with 51% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. He hasn't been able to translate that majority favorability to a majority of the vote because many of the Republicans who like him on a personal level are not willing to actually vote for him. Tancredo meanwhile has seen voters really warm up to him over the course of the campaign. In early August 50% of voters expressed unfavorable feelings toward him while only 27% rated him positively. Now he's on slightly positive ground with 45% saying they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one.

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He's pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Hickenlooper's getting 87% of Democrats to 10% for Tancredo and none for Maes. Tancredo has the 73-14 advantage with Republicans with 9% still going to Maes. His path to victory is dependent on that 9% continuing to decline. Tancredo also now has a 46-44 advantage with independents.

Hickenlooper remains the slight favorite but this race looks more and more like it could produce one of the most shocking outcomes in the country on election night.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/hickenlooper-lead-down-to-3.html

[geek tragedy]

1. Tom Tancredo as governor. Really, Colorado. Really? nt

[krabigirl]

9. Probably because he is pro-cannabis legalization. It's sad.

But maybe the Dems should stop their crusade against this?

[Pirate Smile]

2. TPM has a good post on what this is going to do to the Republican Party in CO:

"Maybe our readers can help us figure out if there's ever been a gubernatorial campaign that's been as much of a disaster as Dan Maes' in Colorado.

Maes, the Republican nominee, is actually drawing below 10 percent in the polls. If he were to fail to hit 10 percent in next week's election against Democrat John Hickenlooper and third party candidate Tom Tancredo, it would officially consign the Republican Party to minor party status in Colorado until 2014.

That means Republican Party candidates across the board would not be listed at the top of the ballot with the Democrats, but down lower with the other minor parties. The fact that this could happen on the watch of state GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams is just icing."

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/10/no_maes.php?ref=fpblg

But, really, Colorado? You're going to elect Tancredo Governor? I would certainly hope the Latino population in Colorado is paying attention.

[Hawkeye-X]

6. Shhh - that's our secret...

We've got a assloads of Latinos here ready to vote in Hick/

[Pirate Smile]

8. ok (I'm whispering). thank goodness.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. ...and Bennet, I hope. n/t

[hlthe2b]

3. Republican party will get minority status for 4 years becaue of Maes

:rofl:

But if Maes fails to get 10 percent of the vote on election day, his legacy won't be the U.N. bike plot warning or the tall tale of working undercover as a cop in Kansas. It will be leaving Republicans with minor party status in Colorado until 2014.
After weeks of declines in the polls, the TPM Poll Average now shows Maes coming in at 9.3%.

As The Denver Post reported back in September, minor party status means that Republicans wouldn't appear at the top of the ballot with the Democrats in 2012 and 2014. Instead, they'll be listed down with the Libertarian, Green Party and other third-party candidates.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/maes-disaster-could-leave-the-colorado-gop-a-minor-party.php

[donheld]

15. By the the state will lie in ruins if Tancredo gets in

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Hick will pull it out, no problem.

It's the death knell of the Republican Party - if that % stays steady, then they will lose funding and relegated to minority status meaning that they will have to work 20x as hard as they used to to get on the ballot.

[donco6]

10. I've seen polls that showed Tancredo closer than this.

Overall, I think he's starting to tank, like the Terrible Three. Hopefully, Buck will go down as well. I held my nose and voted for Bennet. We'll see.

[Kdillard]

5. I hope Hickenlooper can pull this one out.

[rurallib]

7. They shoulda run Billy Mays

he'd done better than Dan even dead

[donco6]

11. LOL! True. n/t

[Thrill]

13. It amazes me how a wacko like Tancredo, can run that good in a statewide

race. Thats just surprising. The guy is a nut

[Ter]

14. Call them what you want, but I gotta give them credit for uniting behind one candidate

If only we would do the same in Florida. Do we just have more infighting than they do?