Quinnipiac Poll: Bad news for HCR, Obama, Democrats (Kittens holding up okay)

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Thu Dec-10-09 10:33 AM
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Quinnipiac Poll: Bad news for HCR, Obama, Democrats (Kittens holding up okay)

Edited on Thu Dec-10-09 11:02 AM by Kurt_and_Hunter

Sorry. I lied about the kittens. I just wanted some feeble trace of positivity in the headline.

The American people don't seem enthused about any of our HCR efforts, with the ironic exception of the public option. A few good things will kick in right away but the overall system won't change much for years, people are skeptical in the first place and industry will spend millions or billions defining a program years before it kicks in. Since electing some Republicans will provide a pug/blue-dog governing coalition expect big campaign $$$ to flow to House pugs. This is all a non-trivial political challenge.

I support passing pretty much whatever we can pass because 1) it will help some people and people are suffering enough on all fronts and 2) if we are going to get creamed in 2010 we might as well get creamed for something, rather than nothing. But the conventional wisdom assumption that Obama's and Democrat's numbers will rebound as a result--beyond a short-term news coverage blip--is not a certainty. (Passing something may stop or slow the ongoing slide in our numbers, which is better than a stick in the eye. But we may not see a reversal of trend.)

Discuss.

(This is a press release so the 4 paragraph rule doesn't apply. But there is more text and data at the link.)

December 9, 2009
Obama Approval Falls To New Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; U.S. Voters Oppose Health Care Plan By Wide Margin

American voters give President Barack Obama a split 46 - 44 percent job approval, his lowest ever, and both the health care reform package that he wants Congress to pass and his personal rating on handling health care now win support from less than four in 10 Americans, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters disapprove 52 - 38 percent of the health care reform proposal under consideration in Congress, and they disapprove 56 - 38 percent of President Obama's handling of health care, down from 53 - 41 percent in a November 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University.

But voters support 56 - 38 percent giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan, compared to 57 - 35 percent November 19.

American voters trust Obama more than Republicans in Congress to handle health care 44 - 37 percent, down from 45 - 36 percent three weeks ago. Voters disapprove 58 - 30 percent of the way Republicans in Congress are doing their job, and disapprove 56 - 33 percent of Democrats in Congress.

American voters say 63 - 30 percent that extending health insurance to all will raise their cost of health care, although they are split 47 - 46 percent on whether they are willing to pay more to make sure everyone is covered. Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether they think covering everyone will decrease the quality of their own care, but by 71 - 21 percent they do not think universal coverage is worth lower quality of care.

"It's a good thing for those pushing the health care overhaul in Congress that the American people don't get a vote. At this time, supporters are down 14 percentage points," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"President Barack Obama's job approval rating continues to slide and it's evident the deterioration stems from voter unhappiness over domestic policy matters," Brown added.

American voters disapprove 54 - 41 percent of Obama's handling of the economy, down from a 52 - 43 percent disapproval November 18 and his worst score ever on this issue. The biggest shift is among Democrats who approve 71 - 24 percent, down from 77 - 18 percent three weeks ago.

The biggest drop in Obama's overall approval is among independent voters, who disapprove 51 - 37 percent, down from 46 - 43 percent disapproval.

The President's support declines as one goes up the age and income scale. Analyzed by religion, Obama gets a thumbs up from 32 percent of white Protestants, 42 percent of white Roman Catholics and 52 percent of Jews.

"The decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters who went from three points negative to 14 points," Brown said. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance.

"The White House certainly is concerned about Obama's approval rating, but the President has three years before facing the voters again. With just 11 months until congressional elections, the White House and all Democrats must worry about the steady deterioration in their lead over the GOP in congressional job performance. Now, only 33 percent give the Democrats in Congress a positive rating, compared to 30 percent for Republicans. Last July Democrats had a nine point edge.

"Also, the 20-point lead in July and nine point lead in November that Obama enjoyed when voters were asked who they trusted more to handle health care - he or congressional Republicans - has shrunk to just seven points, 44 - 37 percent."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1403