(to keep the majority we need to win these two seats plus try to win Bill Owens and Scott Murphy's seats as well--these are the four most vulneable dems in the NY delegation)
Two closely watched House races in upstate New York now held by Democrats remain close, according to polls released Wednesday by the Siena College Research Institute. Democratic Rep. John Hall had edged ahead of his GOP opponent Nan Hayworth by one point in the 19th congressional district, while Democratic Rep. Michael Arcuri has a five point lead in the 24th congressional district, according to the surveys conducted Saturday through Monday.
The latest survey found that Hall has made some progress in attracting undecided and independent voters, since Siena last polled the district two weeks ago. In the previous poll Hayworth led 46 to 43 percent. Both candidates have the support of more than three quarters of their party's voters. Independent voters are equally divided.
"This has the potential to be one of the closest races in the nation and might not be decided till very late next Tuesday - or maybe later than that," Siena poll director Steven Greenberg said.
The district encompasses suburban and exurban counties north of New York City. Hall is leading in the suburban Rockland and Westchester counties, while Hayworth leads in more rural Orange County. The candidates are garnering almost equal support in Dutchess and Putnam counties.
Both Republican and Democratic campaign committees are closely monitoring this race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently purchased television spots on behalf of Hall in the expensive New York City market.
The survey included telephone calls to 651 likely voters in the 19th district. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.
In the 24th district, Arcuri is leading Hanna, 48 to 43 percent. That is slightly down from a poll conducted six weeks ago by Siena, in which Arcuri led 48 to 40 percent. The survey found that Hanna is better known than he was in September.
The tough campaign appears to have taken its toll on both candidates. Six weeks ago they were both viewed favorably by a two to one margin. Now each has unfavorable ratings that are almost as great as their favorable ratings.
"The negative advertising proliferating the airwaves and mailboxes of the 24th CD is having an effect on the way both candidates are viewed by voters," Greenberg said. He also said that there is significant gender gap, with men favoring Hanna 49 to 42 percent and women backing Arcuri 54 to 36 percent.
The district covers 11 counties in upstate New York and includes Utica, Rome and Cooperstown. The survey included telephone calls to 632 likely voters in the 24th district. The margin of error is 3.9 percent.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/polls-dem-reps-john-hall-and-m.html
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