10 New House polls out from "The Hill"

[WI_DEM]

Here's the last batch of 10 of the Hill House polls by Penn Schoen Berland. The sample periods were a mix of Oct. 16-19 and Oct. 19-21, with each sample with a 4.9% MoE. With previous rounds focusing on freshmen, open seats, and sophomores, this one deals with some of the most endangered veterans:

• CO-03: John Salazar (D-inc) 43%, Scott Tipton (R) 47%

• FL-02: Allen Boyd (D-inc) 38%, Steve Southerland 50%

• GA-08: Jim Marshall (D-inc) 37%, Austin Scott 50%

• IN-09: Baron Hill (D-inc) 46%, Todd Young (R) 44%

• IA-03: Leonard Boswell (D-inc) 49%, Brad Zaun (R) 37%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 44%

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (D-inc) 43%, Lou Barletta (R) 48%

• SC-05: John Spratt (D-inc) 39%, Mick Mulvaney (R) 49%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 45%, Kristi Noem (R) 42%

• TX-17: Chet Edwards (D-inc) 40%, Bill Flores (R) 52%

So, 4 out of 10 isn't bad, considering the crowd we're looking at here (including the DOA-for-months Chet Edwards and Allen Boyd). Especially noteworthy is IA-03... who would have thought, even a few months ago, that chronically underperforming Leonard Boswell would be well on his way to re-election and possibly even not the most endangered Iowa Dem?

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

I'm somewhat encouraged to see Dems ahead in SD-AL, ND-AL, and it looks like Boswell in Iowa has a nice lead (GOPers were really gunning for him). Also IN--09, Baron Hill leading is somewhat encouraging. CO-3 and PA-11 could be won with GOTV, but if these are among the most endangered democrats as the article indicates, the fact that Dems are leading in 4 out of the 10 and within striking distance in 2 others is mildly encouraging.

[jefferson_dem]

1. The blue dogs are fucked...

Oh well.

Shame about Paul Kanjorski, however. He's one of the good guys.

[catgirl]

2. He still has a shot

The senate race in PA may get more dems out to vote... fingers crossed.

[Beetwasher]

3. Would Repubs Essentially Have To Run This Table To Take The House?

:shrug:

[FBaggins]

5. No. If they run this table we're hosed.

TheHill picked a sample of about 40 competitive seats in four broad categories... But there are more seats in each category. By some counts it's as
many as 90 or more total.

Of course they also have 3-6 more to make up that they could lose.

[flpoljunkie]

4. That's a helluva MOE--4.9%.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. I have students who work for John Spratt. Good guy. Very sad!!