CNN-Time Poll: California-- Boxer leads by 5; Brown leads by 7

[WI_DEM]

– A new survey indicates that the Democrats have slight advantages in the California battles for senator and governor.

According to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, 50 percent of likely voters in the Golden State say they support Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, with 45 percent backing Republican challenger Carly Fiorina and four percent undecided or backing a different candidate. Boxer's five point margin is within the survey's sampling error and is down from a nine point advantage in CNN/Time polling from last month.

Full results (pdf)

Most other polls released over the past two weeks also indicate the three term senator holding a single digit advantage over Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard CEO.

According to the CNN/Time survey, Boxer leads 90 to 6 percent among Democrats while Fiorina leads 97 to 3 percent among Republicans and holds a 49 to 41 percent advantage over Boxer among independent voters.

"Boxer racks up big margins in Los Angeles County and her home territory in the Bay Area," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Fiorina has an edge in the rest of Southern California and in the Central Valley. The factor that may put Boxer over the top is her 12-point lead among women."

In a sign that enthusiasm for voting appears to be on the Republican side, when expanded from those likely to vote to the larger sample of all registered voters, Boxer's five point advantage jumps to a 16 point lead.

According to the poll, California Attorney General and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown holds a seven point lead over Meg Whitman, the Republican nominee. Fifty-one percent of likely voters say they support Brown with 44 percent saying they back Whitman, the former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and a billionaire who's contributed more than $120 million of her own money on her bid for governor.

Brown's seven point advantage is at the edge of the poll's sampling error and compares to a nine point lead in late September. Most other surveys out in the past two weeks indicate a large single digit margin for Brown, who served two terms as California governor in the late 1970's and early 1980's.

According to the CNN/Time poll, Brown leads 88 to 8 percent among Democrats while Fiorina leads 93 to 5 percent among Republicans and holds a 48 to 45 percent margin among independent voters.

"Geographically, Brown has the same strengths and weaknesses as Boxer - a strong showing in L.A. and the Bay Area, and a deficit in Southern California and the Central Valley," says Holland. "And despite the fact that Brown is running against a woman, he appears to be doing slightly better among female voters than Boxer, with a 14-point margin in that key group."

Brown's seven point advantage among likely voters jumps to a 56 to 38 percent lead among the larger sampling of registered voters.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/27/cnntime-poll-democrats-on-top-in-california-governor-and-senate-contests-2/

[Robbins]

1. CNN/Time polls

Pay attention to registed voters.Likely Voters Is skewed like most in this cycle assuming many won't vote.Democrats are doing
early voting which shows Democrats are not going to play dead like many were assuming.Some pollsters couldn't even get the primarys
right.I can see losing all the Republican open seats but winning nevada,Colorado,Illinois,California,PA.

[JuniperLea]

2. The more Meg and Carly flap their jaws, the better!

They are both really awful at thinking on their feet, so they screw up constantly. They are both smug and condescending, which doesn't fly well here either.

Come on Governor Moonbean! Let's go Senator Boxer!


I'm convinced that this GOTP meme about a tidal wave is just more projection... they see ours coming, so they proclaim their own.