Siena Poll--NY--23: Even without Hoffman; Democrat Owen is competitive--race tied

[WI_DEM]

Most pundits have this race as leans GOP, but I think it's a toss-up and GOTV can win it!:

The upstate New York House race between Democratic Rep. Bill Owens and his Republican challenger, Matt Doheny, is extremely close, according to a poll released Thursday by the Siena College Research Institute.

The survey found that the outcome of the race in the 23rd district could be determined by how many voters cast their ballot for Doug Hoffman, who suspended his candidacy but whose name remains on the ballot under the conservative party line.

When poll respondents were told that Hoffman had suspended his campaign, Owens and Doheny were tied at 42 percent each, with Hoffman garnering 4 percent. When they were not told about Hoffman's decision, Owens led Doheny, 40 percent to 37 percent, with Hoffman receiving 15 percent of the vote.

"Will voters know or won't they know that Hoffman has suspended his campaign? That question will determine how many votes are siphoned away on the Conservative Party line for the two major party candidates," Siena poll director Steven Greenberg said.

The survey found that Doheny had improved his standing from earlier this month when Owens led by 5 points. Owens now has the support of almost three quarters of Democrats but trails Doheny among independents by 6 or 7 points. When voters don't know about Hoffman's decision to suspend his campaign, Doheny receives only 52 percent of GOP support. When they are informed about the decision, Doheny's Republican support rises to 60 percent.

"Clearly, informing voters -- particularly Republicans -- that Hoffman is out is crucial to the success or failure of Doheny's campaign heading into the closing days," said Greenberg. The National Republican Congressional Committee has recently launched an advertising campaign in the district to boost Doheny.

Owens defeated Hoffman in a special election last year after the Republican candidate dropped out of the race.

The survey was conducted Saturday through Tuesday with telephone calls to 623 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.9 percent.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/poll-hoffman-may-still-be-dete.html

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. K & R nt