New McClatchy/Marist Poll--Dems tie GOP among likely voters on generic congressional ballot

[WI_DEM]

A new McClatchy-Marist survey finds Democrats and Republicans tied among likely voters in the generic congressional ballot at 46% each.

Among registered voters, Democrats actually lead by a wider margin, 47% to 41%.

Jonathan Singer: "Digging a little deeper into the survey, an extremely interesting and important number comes out: The Democrats' strength among registered voters comes directly from the cell-only population... This data buttresses the findings published earlier this month by Pew that if pollsters are skipping cell-only voters -- exactly the type of voters who are more likely to vote Democratic -- their results may simply be too favorable for the GOP."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/28/democrats_catch_republicans_in_generic_ballot.html

[Kber]

1. r'uh r'oh

Major CYA time, eh?

[Beetwasher]

2. Newsweek Polled Cell Phones, Now McClatchy

And voila. Look what happens. Very interesting.

[Valienteman]

7. Gallup polls cell phones too

Just in case people falsely believe Gallup does not include cell phones.

[Beetwasher]

8. Did Someone Here Say They Didn't?

Gallup's problem is their shitty likely voter screen.

[Valienteman]

15. Gallup is closer than McClatchy/Maris to the average of pollsters

Could it be that McClatchy/Marist is the shitty one?

[Beetwasher]

16. Why? Because YOU Want To Believe That?

Gallup's Likely Voter screen is a load of absolute garbage, IMO.

But feel free to believe them if it makes you feel better.

[mikekohr]

17. CHECK OUT THIS BREAKING HEADLINE!!!!

?


Yes we can, and yes we did.

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats
http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/p/job-growth.html

[jefferson_dem]

3. The cell-phone stuff is really fascinating...and gives me hope.

We kept wondering if and when this problematic "sampling frame" issue would arise. We may find out on Tuesday.

[stopbush]

5. I think it's very real.

I'm 56. In past years, I've had a few calls from pollsters on both sides. This year, none. The reason? We don't use our land line anymore. We only have it for emergencies and to get a better deal on our cell phone accounts. I don't have any device hooked up to the land line, so no pollster (or bill collector, for that matter) is going to be able to reach me.

I only mention my age because I don't think the "cell phone only" issue is limited to the youngsters out there. It's a very wide-spread phenomenon.

The same pollsters who called me in past years can't reach me now because they won't call my cell. Don't tell me that their polling models aren't screwed up.

[PopSixSquish]

10. I Know Plenty of Folks of All Ages Who Only Use Cell Phones These Days

Most stopped using them to save money since you can get pretty good deals on cell packages these days...

[Aramchek]

4. my, my, my look at that Country Pie!

:)

[Robbins]

6. Well

Let's see If The MSM reports on this.If anyone does It will be on MSNBC-Harball,Ed,Countdown,Rachel,Lawrence O'Donnell.Although
they may report things like this to keep themselves covered when the Republican tidel wave they have been pushing all year doesn't
happen.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Note: R's lead on those 'most likely to vote on election day' compared to other 'likely voters.'

(That's why turnout on election day is key.)

When looking at likely voters nationally, neither party has the competitive edge. Among this group of voters, 46% say they are more likely to vote for a Democrat while 46% report they are more likely to support a Republican candidate. Four percent will not vote for either party’s candidate, and the same proportion — 4% — are undecided.

However, Republicans gain the advantage among voters who are the most likely to go to the polls on Election Day. Here, 49% report they are more likely to vote for a Republican candidate while 43% say they are more likely to support a Democrat. Three percent believe they will not vote for either party’s candidate, and 4% are undecided.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1028-turnout-key-for-midterm-elections/

[ThoughtCriminal]

20. As opposed to early voters?

counts the same.

[Demoiselle]

11. A Marist pollster called me today.

Sweet sounding young woman. I answered every question like the good rabid Democrat I am. Voting for Sestak, Voting for Donorato, ABSOLUTELY going to vote on Tuesday. Approve of Obama so far (If they'd given me a calibrated opportunity I might have said good instead of excellent, but never mind) and when asked if I thought the worst was behind us or ahead of us on the economy I said I have absolutely no idea. Then she asked if I thought of myself as a Democrat or a Republican and we had a nice little chuckle. AND she asked me if I'd mind if a McClatchy reporter called me to interview me and I said OK.
This is the FIRST TIME I've ever been polled!
I'm feeling terribly important right now, so please cut me a little slack.
(The call was on my land line, by the way.)

[budkin]

12. Oh man... if we equal those numbers they ain't taking back shit

[BlueIdaho]

13. Can you feel the change a' coming?

Look out baggers - here we come!

[struggle4progress]

14. Generic ballot polls don't mean jackshit: All politics is local

gotv

[Change Happens]

18. We knew it already......nt

[DemocraticPilgrim]

19. The main focus is drive the grumpiest Dem friends to the polls buy them a beer for their troubles