A second poll released Thursday has found Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink with a paper-thin lead over Republican Rick Scott. The Mason-Dixon survey of 625 likely voters found Sink with 46 percent support, and Scott with 43 percent.
The take-away: Scott, an acquisitions lawyer who built the largest hospital chain the country, is still having trouble closing the sale with Republican voters. He is drawing support form 75 percent of likely GOP voters — a margin smaller than the 80-85 percent Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist drew — while Sink is keeping 81 percent of Democrats casting ballots.
Here’s Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker’s explanation:
“A very large Republican turn-out margin seems to be the only shot Scott has to win this race. He continues to under-perform the GOP’s last two successful Republican gubernatorial candidates – Jeb Bush & Charlie Crist – in every party group. Bush and Crist easily carried more than 80-85% of the GOP vote, while Scott is now at only 75%. The two also were able to generate a Democratic cross-over vote of about 20% — Scott is getting only half of that. Finally, successful Republican candidates need to carry unaffiliated voters, however, Scott trails by 14 percentage points.
“Scott’s high negatives and inability to hit any of the traditional party support levels that have produced statewide Republican wins should make this race a walkover for Sink. However, Scott continues to hang around, and is relying heavily on GOP voter anger at Democrats in Washington to produce an unprecedented Republican turnout.”
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2010/10/mason-dixon-poll-sink-46-scott-43.html