What makes you think we or won't will keep the house?

[pstokely]

I think it's a tossup, if we GOTV we keep the house. If we stay home, we lose big

[JuniperLea]

1. We're being told a lot of things...

I think it's all crap. I think we'll be ok.

[Bitwit1234]

2. Well the media says so and goodness knows THEY

always tell the truth.

[frazzled]

3. My heart says ...

there's a chance we keep the House by a person or two. But my head says the cards are already on the table: I'm fully expecting us to lose the House, but hopefully not by as much as the chattering classes presume. A lot of those House members who came in 2006 and 2008 were in Republican, or at least conservative districts ... they got swept in with the anger against Bush and the Republicans, and they're going to be swept out again.

[liberalmuse]

4. What makes me think we will keep the house? Common sense and decency.

See, I'm told by my mom that we should still believe in American's ability to fight for good in the world. I voted, and everyone I know (unfortunately, there is a Republican or two in that mix) is straining at the leash to vote this time around. What makes me think we will win? Perhaps barely, but still 'win'? I dunno. Providence seems to be on the side of the good, honest, decent man named 'Obama'. I guess we shall see.

[CitizenLeft]

20. rumors of the demise of Democratic control of the House...

...are greatly exaggerated. :)

[onehandle]

5. The ultimate truth: Math.

Nate Silver:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Ha

I remember in 2006 when almost all the evidence suggested Republicans were about to have their asses handed to them and they were in denial. I'm afraid we are where they are now.

[Imajika]

8. Yup...

That is the hard truth. You always know when people reject or complain about the polls, it pretty much just means they don't like the result.

[Stuckinthebush]

11. Not here

I think many are whistling past the graveyard.

I'll be the first to celebrate if I'm wrong, but I see us losing the house. We should keep the senate.

Americans are dumb as dirt sometimes. I have no faith in my countrymen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. It Reminds Me Of The Waning Days Of Election 2006 When Rove "Claimed He Had The Numbers"

And all the evidence of impending Republican doom was apocryphal.

Some of us are there.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. This kind of math isn't an ultimate truth but it is right more than it is wrong

Which is one of the reasons I really like Nate's probabilistic predictions. There is a chance the polls could be totally wrong (about 1 in 5 according to Nate at this point) like they were in 1998. However, it's more likely that they are right.

[vi5]

6. The numbers....

Look Nate Silver is human, but he's got a good track record and if anything he leans dem himself and therefore never hesitates to put good news for dems out there. And if he's saying it's more likely that we won't keep the house then he's as reliable a poll/numbers cruncher as I'm going to believe. Anything can happen but I think most of the optimism is just coming from wishful thinkers here on DU. I'm not an optimist in any area of my life and I never have been, and this isn't going to change this time around.

[The Northerner]

9. Just because some people say so doesn't mean it's true

[pstokely]

10. and just because people deny it doesn't mean it's not true

nt

[FBaggins]

12. I've never seen polling this bad in decades of watching politics.

You hardly ever even see a republican lead in a generic poll... Any lead at all... Let alone weeks/months of 6-8 point leads.

[customerserviceguy]

15. For starters, the party in the White House nearly always loses seats

And there are a number of other reasons, but the last one is, this is looking like a wave election. It will be relatively easy for the Repukes to use fear and ignorance to get back the seats they lost in the last three elections, at the very least.

If you don't see the handwriting on the wall, brace yourself. I'm already thinking past Tuesday, I'm envisioning what it will look like when we run truly progressive candidates in seats that tea partiers take from Blue Dogs and DINO's. We'll have the President at the top of the ticket, and he'll bring back the voters who just can't get excited about the Marcy Kaptur's out there. I wouldn't be that enthusiastic if I were in her district, either.

[laugle]

16. Democrats are

in a punishing mood and Republicans are highly motivated. That spells disaster for dems............

[Cosmocat]

17. Permanent republican majority ...

The clowns won the presidency by the smallest margin in our lives, with the SC overuling the popular vote, and had smaller margins in the house and senate than the Ds gained in 08 ... And, all we heard was the MSM breathelssly talking about a permanent republican majority ...

THEN, they drove the country into war with Iraq with the most mindless crape ever, and anyone who dared speak out on it was castigated as hating Ameica ... They breathlessly pushed "the guy you would have a beer with" over the more clearly competent and decent candidate in 00 and painted the douchebag who got out of service oversees because of his family connections as "tough and resolute" while painting the man who actually served, was wounded and honored as weak and unamerican ...

The bubble burst when it was just too tenuous to hold it together in 06 and 08 ...

BUT, the benefit to the Ds having the WH and all of congress is that they got to put all of the damage onto the Ds ...

While the Rs got the "permanent repubican majority" treatment, the MSM has breathlessly talked about the 2010 "tsunami" from the day after the 08 elections ...

We have seen the total assimilation of the MSM into republican cheerleading/democrat bashing, and it has bled over to the pollsters in this cycle ...

There are going to be loses, but not what they want it to be ...

[DemocraticPilgrim]

18. Yep it's all about showing up for the party.

[rufus dog]

19. The numbers don't look good

Generic polls are bad, but so are the approval ratings for Repubs. That may result in Indies going to the polls, remembering all the Bush BS and not being able to pick the repuke.

[DFLforever]

21. GOTV is the key.

to winning the marginal seats. Some of them will be won by just one or two points and it would be great if that one or two points would turn in our favor.