The election from Hell

[kentuck]

Gather around People - a tale I will tell...

About politicians running, in an election from Hell.

Five days out, and everybody is waiting for the Republican "tidal wave". Arianna Huffington says people are operating on their "lizard brains". Fear overrides all other emotions.

This morning, the latest polls are saying that Patty Murray is even in the polls in Washington. Maybe? Maybe not? At this time of year, there are efforts by both Parties to get them to take money from one race and put it in another. It can be a tactical move?

At the rate it is going, the Democrats might lose 25,000 seats in the House?

Did Bill Clinton try to talk Meek out of the race in Florida? From a purely political perspective, it might benefit the Democrats to offer Meek a plum job in the Administration and have him throw his support behind Charlie Crist? If they think Crist would be more of an ally in the Senate than would Rubio?

However, it says tons about where the Democratic Party is today. When Democratic voters debate whether or not they want to vote for a real Democrat or a Republican turned "Independent"? When the "real" Democrat can only garner 15%, it is a sad commentary about the Democratic Party.

And we hear that Sarah Palin has held a rally for her guy in Alaska, Joe Miller, since he has slipped to third in the polls. Reportedly, about 350 people showed up to hear the "next President" speak. The Democrat actually has a chance to win this race.

Feingold has slipped even further behind. Everyone is scratching their heads. How could this happen to one of the most established progressives in the Senate? One would think he was a "Blue Dog"?

Who are you going to believe? Your own eyes or the talking heads on TV? That is the question many Democrats are asking themselves.

It has gotten to the point where if the Democrats hold the Senate, it will have to be considered a victory. If they win Connecticut and West Virginia, which it appears they will, the Republicans would have to run the old pool table to win the Senate. Many doubt they can beat Boxer or Murray out West. They will hold the Senate for the Democrats.

However, there are other races Democrats may win also. They still may take Illinois. They have a good shot in Colorado. Other possibilities are getting slimmer. But in this election from Hell, if Democrats hold the Senate, it may be a political miracle - at least according to most of the political pundits.

But, we should not surrender one race until the last vote is counted. I hope Democrats do not get in a rush to concede on election night. That would be a mistake. They may count the faorable Republican districts first in attempts to get that to happen. Wait until the votes are counted.

Do not surrender. Let the people speak. We will know a lot when it is over...

[marlakay]

1. Using the fear

I think its a huge group of religious people using the fear and getting people to vote against themselves with SS, healthcare, etc to get pro life & gay policies they want.

I am sickened by it and not looking forward to the next 6 years. This is much worse than 94. A bunch of those tea party people are freakin nuts!!!

[Bluenorthwest]

2. A step outside the political to take a look at 'polling' and survey

stats. We focus on election polling and all, but the fact is that every single major product or entertainment has gone through large scale pre-launch 'testing' with the public. They show the film, they hand out samples, they make adjustments accordingly, the numbers tell them to go forward, the public likes it, and then that product or show fails to sell at all. This happens all the time. Focus groups, polling, survey, screenings where everyone has 'rating buttons'. All of that, and still they produce flops that are flops out of the gate. They expect 80% to favor, then it is hated.
They tested New Coke. Every TV show goes through all of this. Yet they still do not pick the hits all the time, or even most of the time.
The current batch of stats people such as Nate are from sports, where the stats are about performance past as predictor of future performance. That's sports. Politics is much, much more like show biz or rolling out a major product. There are no stats on performance. There is no 'batting average'. Because there is just one time at bat, win or lose.
When they can tell me in advance which products and shows will hit and which will not, they will have something to tell me about politics. But they can not. They try really hard and spend lots of money on it, but it is still hit or miss.
And part of the reason for that is those taking the opinions often misunderstand those opinions, because they listen for what they want to hear.
A crap shoot is a crap shoot.

[CrispyQ]

3. "But, we should not surrender one race until the last vote is counted."

...by electronic voting machines - an issue the dems have not addressed. :banghead:

Just sayin'. I hope the dems retain majorities. I do not want to live in a teabagger nation. However, I am angered that dems have not addressed electronic voting.

[Bluenorthwest]

4. No electronic voting in my State

And we get to make copies of our ballots if we want. Paper things that they are. Elections are run by the various States, and if your State is using electronic voting machines, the people in that State need to take action about it. On the State level.

[emulatorloo]

5. EXCELLENT POST - For what it is worth, Meeks says Clinton DID NOT ask him to drop out.

Message from Kendrick Meek (FL - DEMOCRAT)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x493018

[Bitwit1234]

6. AND what are the basing the republican "landslide" on

the fact they won in 1994 after having Democrats in congress for several years. That and only that. This country knows what the republican did, they know what they will do and other than the fox led bunch of crap no one in their right mind is going to vote for the republicans. I don't care what a lot here say about the voting machines, I believe and will continue to believe that in republican run states, counties, districts that is going to be the problem. THEY have control of the machines and we know they can't be trusted, look at Ohio in 2004. And the sneaky SOB responsible for that ROVER BOY THE BOW WOW KING.

[kentuck]

7. Good question.

I think they are assuming that the 49 districts that John McCain carried against Barack Obama in the last election will go back to their "natural" Republican state this time around.

That is their starting point. Forty nine seats to the Repubs as a starter. But this is quite an assumption, in my opinion. They did not trust the Republicans then and they may not trust them now?