Survey USA--MN Gov--Dayton (D) 39% Emmer (R) 38% Horner (I) 13%

[WI_DEM]

(Polls in MN are all over the place. Yesterday an MPR Poll had Dayton up by 12 and today Survey USA has him up by only 1! but Survey USA has been very tough this season on Dems--In the end I think Dayton has the advantage--but it all comes down to GOTV!!!):

Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor's race, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points. Today's it's Dayton 39%, Republican Tom Emmer 38%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Horner complicates any analysis of the race. The 1 point difference between Dayton and Emmer reported here does not have statistical significance. The contest should be reported as even. Each of the 2 leading candidates has a chance to win.

Independent voters split: 37% for Dayton, 37% for Emmer, 17% for Horner. Tea Party supporters back Emmer 21:1. Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton. Emmer has a slight advantage among men, Dayton has a slight advantage among women, but this Gender Gap is less pronounced than in many other 2010 contests nationwide, where men are breaking sharply Republican.


This survey includes interviews conducted on cellphones and on home phones. Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 824 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. In the table that follows: "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 29% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 71% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa1188e8-26e1-4e87-9ea9-cd4f26815443

[Zoeisright]

1. Oh good Christ, if that drunk is elected I'm moving out of the state.

Not only is Emmer Pawlenty lite, but he's a convicted drunk driver who tried to get penalties for drunk drivers reduced in the legislature.

[USA_1]

2. True

Emmer is a CONVICTED drunk driver - a complete degenerate who belongs in jail or in a rehab place. But this goes to show the incredibly stupid double standards Republican use. Had it been a Dem who has had these conviction it would be major headlines and he would not be running for office.

[KingFlorez]

3. SurveyUSA has been very different than other polls this year

Even if they do have him with just a one point lead, I think he'll still win. A lead in most polling, no matter how small, usually indicates that the candidate is favored.

[Bitwit1234]

4. All the polls I have seen have Dayton up by double digits

in some and almost double digits in others. This is why you can't trust polls. The company that posts the polls - posts the survey they want. I read an article after the last election that said some of the polling companies fudged the results to favor the candidate they are favoring to win. Now take the fact that most of the major polling companies are owned by republican corporations and I don't trust any of them. And have you seen the ads where they are telling the public just that. Emmer has several DUI convictions and someone in his committee just resigned because of it. I am so sick of ads by both parties I will be glad when the election is over. You see one ad right after the other trying to convince people that Oberstar doesn't deserve to be elected because 1 - HIS stimulus didn't work. (didn't know he took over the job of the President). 2 He has been in congress too long, we need republicans with new ides etc etc. (yeah republicans with tax cuts for the rich)