A Late Democratic Early Voting Surge in Nevada

[jefferson_dem]

A Late Democratic Early Voting Surge in Nevada

Day-by-day tracking of in-person early voters in Clark County, Nevada shows an uptick of registered Democrats and Independents in the last week of the early voting period. Registered Republicans, on the other hand, showed their best performance of the entire early voting period on Monday, but their numbers have since flat-lined. As a consequence, the number of registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by the greatest single-day margin on Thursday -- 3,400. This is significant because Clark County is home to Las Vegas and it is likely that well more than half of the state's votes will be cast in this county.

We have daily tracking of in-person early voters in only one other county -- Washoe County, the second-largest population county and home of Reno. Here, more registered Republicans have voted early than Democrats. Here, too, there has been an increase in early voting as Election Day nears -- as is typical across many states with various forms of early voting -- but the daily difference between registered Republicans and Democrats has remained fairly constant at about 250 persons.

To illustrate, I plot the number of registered Democrats, Republicans, and those with no party registration who voted during each day of the early voting period. I have drawn the two graphs on the same scale to illustrate that changes in Clark County have a larger effect on the statewide numbers than Washoe County.





As of last Saturday, the state reported more registered Republicans had voted early in-person. Unless something dramatic is happening in counties where we do not have early voter party registration numbers reported on a daily basis, when the state reports the final statewide partisan registration among early voters, more registered Democrats will have voted in-person early in Nevada. The Associated Press provided me with total mail ballot statistics for Clark and Washoe counties -- with no party breakdowns -- that total 28,323. It could be that significantly more Republicans are voting early by mail, and as a consequence more Republicans have indeed voted early than Democrats when mail ballots are included.

<SNIP>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/a-late-democratic-early-v_b_775951.html

[polichick]

1. That's encouraging! nt

[Aristus]

2. Late early voting?

Is that like Steve Martin's early, late mid-early morning? :shrug:

[jefferson_dem]

3. There's a "definite possibility" this could be good news...

:)

[Arugula Latte]

5. "But never at dusk! Never at dusk!"

I know what you're saying. You're saying, Oh... I'll bet he's on drugs." Well, I'll be honest with you: I used to smoke... marijuana! But I would only smoke it... in the late evening. Oh, occasionally, the early evening, or mid-evening. But that was it -- the late evening, the early evening, or mid-evening, but that was it, I -- ohhh, occasionally, the early morning... or, oh, the mid-morning... maybe the late morning... or, occasionally, the early-mid-late morning! Or, sometimes, the mid-early morning, or... oh, the late afternoon! Sometimes, the mid-early-late afternoon! Never at DUSK! NOOOOOO, I would never smoke it at dusk! Oh, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER!!! Because that's when the little FAT men would come! And they would DO things to me! ... And I LIKED it!

[KingFlorez]

4. Maybe polls showing Angle leading encouraged some Democrats to get out

Hopefully, those polls will serve as a jolt that some people need to hold their nose and vote Reid, just to keep Angle out.

[prolesunited]

6. I would hope that those polls

would convince SANE people to come out and vote. Dat bitch is crazy!

[Valienteman]

9. I'm not sure how many Americans read polls

I would bet is' a very small number.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. Revenge of the Latinos? Angle's bigoted ads backfiring in her face. nt

[Kdillard]

8. Could be good news if true because Reid is leading with registered voters .GOTV.

[ampad]

10. Does anyone have a clue

or an estimate of the Hispanic vote? I find it hard to believe that there is not an Hispanic surge against this nutcase. I thought her last ad would of been the end of her.

[jenmito]

11. Good-because the weather is supposed to be lousy Tuesday. n/t