New Cook Report is bad news for Republicans.

[ProSense]

Cook Report: No GOP Senate Takeover (Updated)

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Per TPM:

A pair of tweets from Hotline's Jeremy Jacobs:

"Cook Political moves Sen. from GOP picking up 7-9 to 6-8. Good news for Dems. Odds of GOP winning maj. "non-existent," according to Cook."

"Cook says #WASEN, #CASEN and #WVSEN are breaking toward Dems."

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...actual forecast:

The Cook Political Report is adjusting its current outlook to reflect a net gain for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7 to 9 seats. While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats' prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days. Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 47 and 49 seats to 51 to 53 seats for Democrats. This new outlook means that the odds of Republicans winning a majority in the Senate are now non-existent.

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[Pab Sungenis]

1. We've always known we would hold the Senate.

The House is the important race.

[ProSense]

3. Frankly,

I'm still not buying these forecasts. There is no guarantee that Republicans will hold all their Senate seats.

Cook: "While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats"

[Me.]

4. Right

I would so love to see Alaska go blue and Conway could still squeak in, imho

[Imajika]

5. What Senate seats are Republicans in danger of losing?

The only ones we had a shot at were Kentucky and Missouri, and those look out of reach at this point.

[karynnj]

8. Alaska is a complete wild card now

The last poll showed McAdams ahead of Miller, who is imploding. As many Democrats are supporting LM because they are afraid of Miller, this could cause them to switch to McAdams. LM is currently running an ad against him - which he rather eloquently turned against her in his new ad. (She faulted him for only making a small amount as a part time mayor - he cites his accomplishment and says public service is measured by results - not big pay checks.

[ShadowLiberal]

9. Indeed, that poll may actually make the race even harder to predict if it gets media coverage

If that poll showing Miller in third gets a lot of attention in Alaska (I have no idea if it is) then it could set up even more chaos in the race. Democrats could flee Lisa Murkowski (thinking a better candidate could actually win), and Miller supporters could start running to Murkowski (fearing a democrat might win and be even worse then Murkowski).

[Imajika]

17. The only poll I saw with Miller in 3rd was the Hayes poll...

...no reputable pollster I am aware of is taking that Hayes poll seriously.

This is a very solid red state in a very strong Republican year. McAdams seems to be pulling 25% of the vote, it would be near impossible for him to win. I believe Nate Silver gives him a 7% chance.

I wouldn't hold out much hope for this one.

It's going to be Miller or Murkowski and they will both caucus with Republicans.

[Cosmocat]

29. WTF ...

"Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins."

Does EVERY stinking MSMer/polster want to make Boxer/Fiorina more of a horse race than it really is ... She has been up a good 5-6 points, at least, in pretty much every poll for a LONG time now ... They call much smaller margins in Pa, KY for the Rs, but they just have to make this one seem like it is on the fence ...

[Fire1]

32. We will retain the Democrats in Michigan. I think that's a done

deal. But our govenor will likely be a republican.

[maryellen99]

33. I'm from Michigan too

yeah, I agree about Synder winning but is John Dingell in trouble? This is the first time I have seen an television ad from him. They are really pushing Synder as the last great hope for Michigan.

[saltpoint]

2. Recommended.

The GOP had a very strong candidate in Delaware in Mike Castle, and they screwed it up.

Now they have O'Donnell, who is almost certain to be crushed by Coons.

Their takeover percentages went down considerably when Delaware was off their table.

[struggle4progress]

6. gotv

[Tiggeroshii]

43. GOTMFV!

LETS DO IT GUYS =D

[Robbins]

7. Senate

CNN/Time polls had Reid,Bennet,and Sestak ahead by Registered voters.Meaning If Democrats get out to vote they can win.Sestak also
has nonTea party Independents In his corner.Early voting Is going well In Nevada.Hispanics could help Reid and Bennet survive.
Illinois IS also winnable.There Is reason Obama came back this weekend.

I don't know about Feingold.The problem Is I haven't seen any Registered voter numbers.I believe also Registered voters has It much Closer between Conway and Paul.There Is still chance at upset In Alaska.And here In Missouri despite been told by pundits that
the senater ace Is over I am being robocalled to death which just makes me want to vote against them even more and I am not exactly
thrilled with Robin Carnahan after the Let's extend all of Bush's tax cuts comments.

The Senate could end up with 53 Democrats,2 Independents caucsing with Democrats,and 45 Republicans.And that number Is noupsets and
Republicans keeping all their seats and Feingold lossing.

Remember this about the senate.It appeared we would do better In 2002 than we did.It was thought Daschle would survive In 2004 and Knowles would win In Alaska.Few thought we could keep Maryland and New Jersey and win 6 seats In 2006 and few thought we could win
8 seats In 2008.While 2006 and 2008 were better years for Democrats history has proven we can do better than pundits say.

ND,Indiana,and Arkansas are all defente losses.

[Imajika]

20. This banking on registered voters thing your trying to do...

It smacks of serious desperation.

When the dust settles, around 40%-42% of voters will have turned out - they will largely be the likely voters captured by these polling firms LV screens.

[depakid]

10. 6-8 Senate seats is bad news?

:crazy:

Unfortunately however, it's in line with what I've been predicting for about 8 months, on the assumption that the administration and Senate leadership would continue acting (and not acting as they had for the previous year).

[ProSense]

11. Obviously, not to you.

Why, I remember when the MSM predicted a GOP takeover of the Senate.

"Unfortunately however, it's in line with what I've been predicting for about 8 months..."

You should take Cook's job.

He was predicting 7 to 9 seats.

Yes, it's bad news for Republicans. Try saying it sometimes.

[depakid]

12. LOL- No credible person or outlet predicted a Senate takeover

Republicans would have had to run the table, which was always highly improbable.

And anyone saying in the summer to early fall of 2009 who said that we'd lose 6-8 seats would have been roundly ridiculed and EVERYONE on this site would have considered that a disaster.

Sheesh. How some will spin.

[ProSense]

13. It's bad news

"Sheesh. How some will spin."

6 to 8 < 7 to 9

Spin?

[depakid]

14. You're right, that's probably too over the top to even call spin...

:crazy:

Oh goody! We're only likely to lose 6-8 Senate seats for 6 years.

Woo hoo!

[ProSense]

15. Woo hoo!

Republicans will be in the minority for "for 6 years."

Can you feel the positive?

[HughMoran]

16. Are you not happy?

I thought the Dems needed punishing?

[depakid]

18. Typically juvenile response

Need or "deserve" has nothing to do with nothing to do with the political dynamics.

[HughMoran]

25. But I thought the Democrats needed to be taught a "lesson"

Let's not pretend here...

[depakid]

26. How about not continuing to post posting false attributions

that barely rise to the level of middle school taunts.

[HughMoran]

27. Interesting

I honestly had no idea that support was possible. Guess I'll celebrate! :party:

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Baltoman991]

28. Total crap!!!!

Up until Deleware decided to put the witch in as the Republican cadidate the media was saying that BOTH houses would be swept away by the Republicans. Do some damn research before coming here and posting drivel.

And no, I won't do your homework for you.

[FBaggins]

35. Nope.

I'm not aware of anyone short of the Dick Morrises of the world who actually predicted a republican Senate takeover.

Up until Deleware decided to put the witch in as the Republican cadidate

Prior to that point, WV wasn't a competitive race and there were still five republican senate seats that were rated as tossups. So no... that wasn't some turning point that changed media minds.

I can't think of a single major analyst who ever gave them more than a one in three chance of winning the Senate.

[depakid]

40. Feell free to post a rebuttal

Larry Sabato or Nate Silver, for example?

[Ter]

36. With 41 seats they stopped many programs

With 48 seats, it would be a disaster. No, it's not bad news. It's terrible news.

[cascadiance]

37. If the Dems have 52 seats they can change the fillibuster rule and stop the obstruction...

and actually be AHEAD of the last congress in terms of passing things through the Senate. The key now is what can get through the House. If we lose the House it will be a very interesting lame duck session, and we'll need to start November 3rd championing things to get through the House before the end of the year so that we can pass them through the new Senate, as it might be our last shot for some legislation to get through for two years.

[FBaggins]

41. No... they can't

There isn't a shot in the world that all 52 Democrats would vote for that.

And frankly, they would be right. Many of them remember being in the minority and know that it could happen again... particularly with almost twice as many of them defending seats as republicans in the next election.

[Imajika]

21. It is very bad news for Republicans...

It is the first time these polling analysts (and Charlie Cook is the best) have begun dialing BACK potential Republican gains.

It shows that there HAS been Democratic momentum in some statewide races. Not wishful thinking momentum, real momentum.

It confirms that Republicans are struggling and even faltering a bit in these Senate races.

It is the first sign that they are not so confident in their tsunami predictions.

There will be a flurry of polls tomorrow and Monday and we just might see these guys pulling these predictions of GOP gains back further. The Washington Post poll released in the wee hours of this morning shows the generic ballot down to R+4. That gap has been narrowing for the past 2 polling cycles. If all goes well, we may close out strong and limit our losses.

[FBaggins]

24. Bad news for their hopes of taking the senate... Of course.

Every little bit helps.

[rufus dog]

19. Four Tops! n/t

[Scurrilous]

22. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Hekate]

23. KnR. If only we can hold both Houses. nt

[Phx_Dem]

31. It's critical that we hold the Senate. Imagine if a Supreme Justice had

to be unexpectedly replaced, or if Ginsburg decided to resign. It'd be a disaster. We probably wouldn't even be able to get a moderate confirmed by those lunatics.

I think the House is lost.

[saltpoint]

34. Recommended. There's no question that MItch McConnell

was hoping to be the top gun in the Senate after these mid-terms, but at this moment, the polling suggests that he may be disappointed.

Reid is in a very close race in Nevada. I hope he pulls it out, given that his opponent is an abomination to the idea of public service, but no matter the outcome of that specific race, both parties' Senate leaders are subject to challenge once the new Congress convenes.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens.

[rasputin1952]

38. The ONLY poll that matters is the one's we go to on Tuesday!

No sitting this one out, let's crush the GOP/Teabaggers once and for all.

We have the power and the drive to destroy the neo-con insanity that has driven this nation into the ground...USE that power!!!!

VOTE!!!

[DemocraticPilgrim]

39. That's like music to my ears.

[66 dmhlt]

42. Screw Cook! He's promoted Teapublican all along. And now ...

That it doesn't look as good, Teapublican-wise, he backpedals?

Screw him!