Those 2 polls that contradict each other for how O'Donnell is doing against Coons - here's why....

[LynneSin]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-c-wilson/odonnell-closes-gap-or-co_b_776382.html

When you call and who you call makes a difference

First, the survey designs were different. The FDU poll was conducted over six days targeting landline and cell phone extensions, while the MU poll took three days and targeted only landline phones. Different periods mean people could be using different information to make their judgments. For example, a new effective attack ad, or a public relations error might influence voters' judgments. Also, MU's exclusion of cell phones has important consequences for sampling and coverage error. It's estimated that about 25% of all households are now cell phone only, and research suggests landline only surveys may over-estimate Republican support

________________________

The FDU poll is Farleigh-Dickson University which had Chris Coons up by 21% whereas the MU poll (Mommouth University) was landline's only and has Coons at 10%

Think about the trending with cell phone use. Most young people, urban folks, and upscale voters have ditched their landlines for cell phones only. Mostly elderly and rural people still cling to their landlines. Sure there is plenty of blending in there but consider this - I am without a doubt a likely voter and yet the only poll I could ever participate in is the FDU poll not the MU one. This read tells alot about how they are different and why the results vary.

Think about this - half the the MU poll (again the one were Coons was only up by 10% was done by machines and not humans. Honestly, I hear a computer voice at the end of the phone I hang-up - usually they are trying to sell me something. Again that removes more voters that may have changed the MU poll differently if it was all humans making the calls.

I was panicked all day today about Coons but reading this article reminds me that polls aren't the 'buy-all end-all'.

I think we're safe here :D

[HughMoran]

1. With so many races at 2 - 4 %

10 - 21% seems a little non-competitive.

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. I suspect 'most' is an overstatement....

"Most young people, urban folks, and upscale voters have ditched their landlines for cell phones only."

[quiller4]

5. I don't think "most" is an understatement with young or upscale.

As I look through my personal phone book, I find only cell numbers for all my relatives under 40. My 84 year old sister ditched her landline as soon as 911 was able to detect cell caller's location. In some locales 40% of the households are cell only. The national aveage is now 30% cell only and growing.

I live in a seniors community where more than 50% of residents are cell only and at least 1/3 are snow birds who no longer bother with landlines in either their summer or winter homes.

[blue sky at night]

3. its going to be fun to see the final total...

i'll bet it will be over 20%, and this was one the pukes had in the bag!

[SteveG]

4. The MU poll

I was called by the MU poll. It was a robo poll. I had to hit keys on my phone. It was my landline (which I seldom use). I am 60 and live in Coastal Sussex Co. I think it was an honest poll, but since only landlines were polled I think it underestimates DE's Blue status. I don't think it is a true reflection of the State's voters. I predict that O'Donnell will get less than 40%.

[starroute]

6. I think the real issue was the stories that said O'Donnell was 'gaining"

If the methodology of the two polls was different, that means they can't be taken as evidence that O'Donnell is gaining ground -- which is how the second poll was spun in the media.

If Coons is comfortably maintaining a double-digit lead, that's all that matters.