putting tuesday in perspective

[onenote]

Look, as much as I hate it, it is all but certain that we will lose the House on Tuesday. Those who want to wish it away, or blame the pollsters or the media are simply looking for excuses. We picked up over 50 seats in the past two elections, after being in the minority for the previous six elections. That's a lot of seats in Districts that have a record of electing repubs and thus are inherently vulnerable to switching back to a repub. Just six years ago, we had only 202 seats. We came back. And whatever happens on Tuesday isn't the end of the world any more than the elections between 1994 and 2004 were the end of the world.

The reality, which many here simply refuse to acknowledge, is that the electorate is closely divided. Over the past 16 years, Democrats have averaged 217 seats -- essentially a statistical deadheat with the repubs. The Senate is the same: over the past 16 years, the Democrats (including independents) have averaged right around 50 (give or take a fraction) seats.

The repubs will try to paint Tuesday's results as reflecting some sort of fundamental shift in the electorate, and the media will echo that meme, just as many of us claimed that the 2006 and, even moreso, 2008, elections reflected a fundamental shift (and the media, at least for about 15 minutes, echoed that meme).

The pendulum swings, sometimes slowly, sometimes quickly. Our job is to stop its momentum and start it swinging the other way in the next two years.

[AspenRose]

1. I totally agree with you

And it will bring me sweet consolation to see Sharron Angle lose....*fingers crossed*

[onenote]

2. self kick

[DFLforever]

3. I'm kicking this for your common-sense attitude.

Though I doubt it will keep the hysteria in check on DU.

[RBInMaine]

4. Nothing is carved in stone here. Too many CLOSE races. Just GOTV !

[Clio the Leo]

5. Yep and I'm looking forward to the new dynamic...

.... how the President will work/against a GOP controlled House ... how the R powers that be will deal with their new teabagger freshmen .... aside from Eric Cantor's smug face, a days worth of Palin snarky cheering and the small chance of a impeachment attempt ... I'm looking forward to it.

But I'm a wonks wonk.