|
Bellwethers 2010: An hour-by-hour guide
by Steve Singiser
Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 10:00:49 AM PDT
After twenty-four months, and oodles and oodles of dollars, Election Night 2010 is around 53 hours away from becoming a reality. There has been an incredible amount of speculation about the outcome, so my pre-election contribution to Sunday Kos will focus on that.
It will not be predictions, however: as I noted last week, there are so many question marks with the traditional ways that we predict elections (the huge RV/LV gaps, the cellphone gap best exemplified by this poll out of Oregon) this time around. I take a bit of exception to the unskeptical approach most pundits have to those quirks unique to this election--in their eyes, they don't exist. Maybe we'll discover that they were right all along on Tuesday. But there is enough doubt in my mind to exercise a bit more caution amid their rampant drape-measuring for the GOP. They could be right, but there is just enough there to make me think they could be wrong.
So what is provided here instead is a clip-and-save guide going across the country. In today's installment, it is all about the House. I'll pick up the Senate tomorrow, and the governor's races tomorrow or Tuesday.
There will be three scenarios listed:
It is a good night for the Democrats if...
Control of the House hinges on...
Go the bed NOW if...
With that in mind, let's start with the two states that begin to close their polls before school even lets out here on the West Coast:
6 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS: Kentucky, Indiana
It is a good night for the Democrats if... they are even in the ballpark in Indiana-08 (Open Seat--Ellsworth). This race, featuring Democratic state legislator Trent von Haaften against Republican Larry Bucshon, had been conceded months ago as a GOP pickup. No public polling has been conducted, and the two private polls taken were both GOP polls with cartoonishly big leads for Bucshon. If the Democrat makes this a race that takes a little while to call, that could be perceived as a positive sign. And, honestly, it is the only positive sign available for Dems, who do not have a realistic pickup in either state.
Control of the House hinges on... two seats in the Kentuckiana region: Kentucky-06 (Chandler) and Indiana-09 (Hill). Both are seats that the GOP has controlled in recent years, and both seats feature GOP challengers that were considered pretty formidable. Recent polls in the Kentucky 6th have Andy Barr creeping within four points of Democrat Ben Chandler, while last week's series of Hill polls had Democrat Baron Hill up just a pair of points on Republican Todd Young. If the GOP picks off either of these seats, the polling in the cycle might be close enough to dead on. If that's the case, ruh-roh for the Democrats.
Go to bed NOW if... the Democrats lose John Yarmuth in the Kentucky 3rd. Sure, the mid-afternoon in the West might be a little early to head for the showers, but if Yarmuth goes down, it's probably justified. The polls in this race have been all over the map. Braun Research had Yarmuth in a 20+ point laugher. But SurveyUSA had Republican Todd Lally down by just four points. If SUSA's model is vindicated in this race, given their OTHER House polling in the cycle, the word "bloodbath" won't even begin to describe it.
7:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
It is a good night for the Democrats if... we hold onto Tom Perriello, and pick up the open seat race in the Florida-25th. Perriello was left for dead months ago by the pundit class (largely on the strength of some absolutely brutal SUSA polling in that race--see above). But he has shown amazing resiliency, has run an excellent campaign, and even scored a visit from the President in Charlottesville over the weekend. If he hangs on, it might be a sign that there was late movement in the race, as even Democratic polling had him down fractionally earlier in the month. Further south, a win for Democrat Joe Garcia in the Florida 25th will up the ante for Republicans. If the Dems can pick off some seats, and make the GOP have to pick up 42-48 Democratic seats as a result, that is a potential game-changer in a more equivocal election environment.
Control of the House hinges on... a trio of seats. If the Democrats lose two out of three, or all three, it is hard to imagine them holding onto the House of Representatives. They are: Florida-22 (Klein), Virginia-11 (Connolly), and Georgia-02 (Bishop). The Florida 22nd is one of the most expensive races in the nation, and it is a toss-up. Surprisingly, though, there has been a dearth of polling there, with the only recent contribution being a poll taken for the conservative Sunshine State News that had Republican Allen West up by three. Meanwhile, Virginia-11 has gone, amazingly, completely unpolled, despite the fact that the DCCC has thrown seven figures at the race, a rematch featuring freshman Democrat Gerry Connolly and Republican Keith Fimian. Last, but certainly not least, the Georgia 2nd was on few radar screens, but Republican polling hints that Republican Mike Keown might pulls the upset in a race where no one thought longtime Democrat Sanford Bishop was vulnerable early in the year.
Go the bed now if... the Florida 3rd is even close. There were a couple of stray polls in early October (including one conducted by Ras-subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research) that showed Republican Mike Yost within single digits of longtime Dem incumbent Corinne Brown in this safe Jacksonville-based district. If that is actually true...ugh. Also, another barometer, if all these seats are gone (and some of them likely will be), the GOP has built up a massive early edge: FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, GA-02, GA-08, SC-05, VA-02, VA-05, VA-09, VA-11.
7:30 PM POLL CLOSINGS: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
It is a good night for Democrats if... we get out of North Carolina without any lost seats. There are a quartet of seats in the Tar Heel state that are various degrees of peril: NC-02 (Etheridge), NC-07 (McIntyre), NC-08 (Kissell), and NC-11 (Shuler). Use the numbers as a barometer. If Democrats hold all four, I like our chances. One seat would be a sign that the GOP will pick up seats, but it might not be a game changer. Two seats would put it right at the razor's edge. Three or four, and it is probably lights out early. Remember this: in 1994, the GOP won pretty much everything that wasn't nailed down in North Carolina.
Control of the House hinges on... the West Virginia 1st. Yeah, I hate it, too: using a race where the Democrat was the original article in terms of beating up on Nancy Pelosi to try to appeal to voters. However, this is the best bellwether--a district right in the profile of many of those the Republicans need to pick off to earn a majority. Polling has it within the margin of error.
Go to bed NOW if... the GOP scores a net pick up of four or more seats in the Buckeye State. Ohio, like North Carolina, might be the best statewide bellwether on election night. The Dems could lose three seats here (the most likely candidates being Driehaus in the 1st, Kilroy in the 15th, and Boccieri in the 16th) and still hang onto the House. Those odds go up, of course, if any of those three hang on (Boccieri, polls show, has the best shot). But if the GOP can pick off one of the other vulnerable seats (Zack Space in the 18th comes to mind, or Charlie Wilson in the 6th), then they are cleaning up. And it's also a sign that the Midwest is really the killing field that a lot of pollsters and pundits made it out to be, a bad sign for nearby states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
8-8:30 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas
It is a good night for Democrats if... they run the tables in Connecticut. There are two races with first or second-term Democrats in the Nutmeg State that, in a truly horrific political environment, would fall: Jim Himes (CT-04) and Chris Murphy (CT-05). If both of those guys hang on, amid some polling that suggested that they might get nipped at the wire, it is a sign that the polls might have been off by just that 2-3% swing that could save the House for the Democrats.
Control of the House hinges on... Pennsylvania. If the late Tim Russert wrote "Florida...Florida...Florida" in 2000, control of the House this time around means three words: "Pennsylvania...Pennsylvania...Pennsylvania". If the Democrats were to somehow escape the Keystone State breaking even or losing just one seat, it is hard to imagine the Republicans (barring an absolutely devastating sweep of the South and West) winning the House. There are more than a half-dozen targets here for the GOP, and they could, in theory, win all of them. But only Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) seems certain to fall. The others are all still very debatable. Use Pennsylvania as your environmental read as the mid-evening numbers come in: 0-1 seats is a good night for Dems. 2-4 means the House majority is very much in the balance. 5+ is likely to prove difficult to make up elsewhere.
Go the bed now if... the GOP runs the tables in Mississippi. Late polling from the GOP showed them not only winning the 1st district (where Democrat Travis Childers was swimming upstream a bit), but also leading against veteran Dems Gene Taylor in the 4th district, and within a point of 2nd district Democrat Bennie Thompson. If those numbers are legit (and, of course, there's always cause for skepticism with internal polling), the South will be a total wipeout.
9:00 PM ET POLL CLOSINGS: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Wyoming
It is a good night for Democrats if... they hold their losses down in Arizona. On paper, this should be a rough state for Democrats. A conservative state with a trio of first or second-term Democrats, plus a Democrat under fire over the immigration flap. If the Democrats can score an upset and beat Republican Ben Quaye in Arizona-03 (which our own polling showed was possible), and limit their losses elsewhere, it is not as bad a night as some feared.
Control of the House hinges on... upstate New York. There are five districts there that have reasonably junior Democratic members in some degree of peril, as well as one open seat that looks like a tough hold (NY-29). The one that seemed the most vulnerable (John Hall in the 19th) has rebounded a bit, but one that seemed least vulnerable (Scott Murphy in the 20th) now looks most imperiled. Somewhere in-between lies Bill Owens (NY-23), Michael Arcuri (NY-24), and Dan Maffei (NY-25). If the Dems escape with only one lost seat here, that shows that Democrats still pack a mean punch in the Northeast.
Go the bed NOW if... two races that appeared to be late breaking actually break to the GOP. One is the race pitting freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich against Jon Barela in the New Mexico 1st district. After leading in the high single digits for most of the campaign, a late Republican poll showed Barela creeping ahead. Just when it seemed safe to dismiss that as optimistic partisan polling, the Albuquerque Journal poll confirmed it. Few races have me more nervous than that one. The other race is the open seat race to replace Patrick Kennedy in Rhode Island's 1st district. David Cicciline held a double-digit lead earlier in the month, but a trio of final week polls had it close. That's a seat that was deep on the GOP wish list. If they get this one, they'll get a ton of others.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington
It will be a good night for Democrats if... some of their more vulnerable Democrats out west hang on. The GOP expects to have the job finished before the 10 o'clock hour strikes, but if they don't, their targets out here are somewhat fewer in number. They have some real targets, though, and if folks like Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), Dina Titus (NV-03) and Kurt Schrader (OR-05) hold on, the calculus gets tougher for the GOP.
Control of the House hinges on... a handful of districts in California will tell us a lot about the size of the GOP wave, and the Latino vote, in particular. Up north, it is the 20th district held by Jim Costa. SurveyUSA gave Republican Andy Vidak a big lead here, but it also presumed that Hispanics (two-thirds of the district's population), would make up just over a third of the electorate. While the Latino vote in the California 11th is smaller, it still needs to come out in force to save this seat for Democrat Jerry McNerney, who faces a well-funded challenger in David Harmer.
Go the bed NOW if... the GOP picks up more than one seat in Washington state. The general consensus is that the GOP will pick up the open-seat 3rd district in southwestern Washington (though the polls there have tightened markedly). But if the GOP can also knock off an incumbent (the two most likely candidates are Rick Larsen in the 2nd or Adam Smith in the 9th), they'll be in the majority for certain.
UPDATE/SPECIAL REMINDER
Given that this is the weekend before the election, come back tonight for a special Sunday night edition of the Polling and Political Wrap. I'll have one hand in the candy dish (to hand out to the kiddies, dontcha know) and one hand on the laptop, ready to give you the dozens of late polls that have broken over the
www.dailykos.com
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
