Final Pew Center Poll out: Dems lead by 1 among RV/down by 6 among LVs

[Politics_Guy25]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130957857

This indicates to me that the GOP's so-called wave is going to be weak-to-moderate at best and we're not talking about a Hannity/Limbaugh/Fox dream scenario at all.

It's good news in a way for those of us hoping to keep the losses at a manageable level.

I see no worse than 1994 happening now 54, 8, and probably significantly under that.

The numbers are:
48%-Rep
42%-Dem

[Cosmocat]

1. 2006 dems had 52 percent of the vote and Rs had 46 ...

the dems picked up 31 seats in the house ...

[Politics_Guy25]

3. Interesting-So give the GOP 10 extra seats

The GOP's vote is concentrated in such a way that 52% will result in more seats for them than it would for us. Let's say they pick up 41 seats. We're favored to win in 4-5 of theirs. That means they gain 36 or so seats net and the dems hold on with like a 220-215 majority.

So there's hope yet.

They win 47 seats at most net on election night I bet, which would give them a majority of like 4 at most.

[Valienteman]

2. If this poll is accurate, the cell-phone effect is overhyped

Pew polled cell phones as well as land-lines. What do you guys think about the cell phone vs. landline discussion?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. We Will Find Out Shortly

It will be interesting to see how robocallers like Rasmussen and PPD did.

As long as a pollster includes both I don't see much to discuss.

[Imajika]

5. I think polling is breaking our way...

Not overwhelmingly, but just enough to stem the tide.

Obama is back up to 47 in Rasmussen and 47 in Gallup too.

Just a week ago I thought the GOP would get around 55 seats, now I'm guessing 45.

The Senate won't be close. They will pick up 6 seats, but nowhere near the 9-10 they were hoping for.

It won't be a good night for us, but it won't be a disaster either.

Definitely no Hannity/Limabaugh/Fox dream scenario. I think they are going to be quite glum Tuesday night actually.

[demwing]

6. We all KNOW the "LV" is a joke, BUT

if the best that the faulty LV can muster is still below 50%, I think we'll do just fine.


We'll do just fine...

[Clio the Leo]

7. and someone has the Senate odds down to as low as 6...

... sorry, cant cite that, all of this is running together in my brain.

[budkin]

8. This is a HUGE contrast to Gallup's skewed polls