A non-paradoxical paradox: Job Growth By Spring, but with rising Unemployment

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Summers says jobs will turn positive next spring.
Stephanopoulos notes that other economists think the unemployment rate is expected to rise further.

Who is right? Probably both. Larry Summers is in a political position and tells the truth in ways designed to but the best spin on things. Moody's tries to anticipate reality as a service to people investing money.

If the economy sheds 300,000 jobs while adding 300,001 jobs that is job growth.

If kids keep growing up and entering the labor market (particularly while fewer people retire since their retirement was wiped out over the last two years) then the unemployment rate will continue to climb unless the jobs created outstrip the growth of the pool of employment-seekers.

The balance point at which the unemployment rate stays the same isn't zero new jobs, it is hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

George's Bottom Line
Reporting and analysis from ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent and "This Week" Host George Stephanopoulos


The President’s top economic advisor, Larry Summers, told me that “by spring employment growth will start turning positive.”

During my "This Week" interview, Summers said that “everybody agrees that the recession is over,” but he did not say when the unemployment rate could be expected to drop further.

The unemployment rate dipped last month to 10 percent from a peak of 10.2 percent. Many private economists, like Moody’s Mark Zandi, predict unemployment will climb through the third quarter of next year to 10.6 percent.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2009/12/summers-job-growth-by-spring.html

[Peacetrain]

1. Well I don't know.. I think the census jobs will help take that down also..

[emulatorloo]

2. It seems like some states will add jobs while other states shed them

Companies around here are talking about hiring again in 2010. Some states seem to be pulling out of the worst of the recession, while others lag behind. I saw a map indicating about 10 states who were through the worst of it, the others in recovery, and NEVADA still in the absolute worst of it.

[tritsofme]

3. Not to mention as the labor market improves and discouraged workers

rejoin the labor force, the unemployment rate will appear to rise.

[DCBob]

4. No paradox -- Summers did not dispute that unemployment rate may increase in the short term but...

by Spring, he and many/most economists believe the economy will begin to add jobs. Why is that so hard to understand?

[Kdillard]

5. Well I hope Summers is right. People need to be working