"The Totally Preposterous Idea of a Democrat Challenging Obama in 2012"

[impik]

It’s time to smack down, once and for all, the idea that President Obama will face a serious primary challenger in 2012…..

This trope has been popping up ever since the 2008 general election, when horserace-hungry pundits speculated that Hillary Clinton would try to knock off the Democratic nominee four years down the road.

And it’s only gotten worse with the rise of the “angry left,” which thinks Obama has been too eager to compromise with Wall Street and the Republicans, and considers itself the representative of the Democratic base.

…For a substantive primary challenge to occur, a coherent bloc of Democratic voters—whether liberal or moderate—would have to sour on Obama and coalesce behind another candidate in such a way that threatens the president’s hold over his base. There’s just no sign of that happening.

….Obama’s straight approval ratings among rank-and-file Democrats are very high. According to Gallup’s latest weekly tracking poll, 81 percent of self-identified Democrats give Obama a positive job approval rating. Among liberal Democrats, who are supposedly the most likely to rebel, the number rises to 85 percent.

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/79530/democratic-primary-challenge-obama-2012

But hey, keep dreaming that the fringe here is the "base".

[Skittles]

1. we are not the ones who are dreaming

[jefferson_dem]

6. Keep telling yourself that.

"We"?

[Skittles]

77. YES

WE, THE PEOPLE WHO GET IT, THE THINKING DUers

[TK421]

95. Don't think, Skittles...you're not supposed to n/t

[dflprincess]

7. And we sure aren't dreaming of Hillary Clinton

or any other "new" Democrat. We've got a new Democrat - what we need is one who remembers and believes in "old" Democratic values.

[Skittles]

76. it's sad how many DUers just do not get it

very telling too

[TK421]

2. And he is immortal...you left out that Obama is immortal

and that there can be only one

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[Pholus]

9. Yeah, those DINOs wouldn't take a freedom pat from the TSA. D*mn right wingers.

[jenmito]

13. You mean the fewer-than-1% of flyers? n/t

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[Pholus]

20. Nice to know we have symmetric opinions.

But you didn't answer me, you just went for the cheap insult.

So you're HAPPY to work with the folks across the aisle when it comes to fondling my junk then.

[Name removed]

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[jenmito]

25. Sorry to burst your junk-bubble, but the righties are mostly

AGAINST anyone being patted down if they refuse to go through the body scanner machine. They're against it because Obama is FOR it.

[Pholus]

27. Fine, but I refuse to show my support for the President by LYING and saying I'm okay with it.

I'm not.

Guess I fail the "true Dem" litmus test. Or so I've been told.

[Pholus]

34. By the way, "bursting your junk-bubble" brought a smile to my face.

That was hilarious. And I'm being completely serious about this. Thanks! :)

[jenmito]

12. I noticed.

Sometimes I wonder how some posters last here so long. It's sad. But I'm glad they're in the vast minority in the "real" world.

[TK421]

10. Ahh, thats right! I just don't which one I am now

but since you've already narrowed it down to two choices, I'll leave it to you to decide

[Pholus]

14. Dude, I'm with you on that. I'm another one of those "traitors" guilty of wanting our guy to win.

And as far as being in a minority, we'll just have to see. I'd be happy if that were true...

[TK421]

16. Why you, you....you PUMA bastard,you!!

[Pholus]

18. I know. I'm taking "submission to Republican" lessons, but they're just NOT taking.

Just TRYING to become a good democrat and learn to roll over when pressured.

I'm even considering spine removal surgery.

[TK421]

22. no no no....THIS is what you really need!

[Pholus]

28. Aw crud, that's what it takes for me to get through a Gibbs press conference lately.

[jefferson_dem]

29. Ha...

So you repeatedly mock POTUS and Gibbs in the same thread ... while (supposedly) sarcastically announcing that you're not a real Democrat.

Very interesting...

[Pholus]

30. I thought you were going to let me "debate myself" -- going back on your word, I see.

Another way I manage to fail the "true Dem" (TM) litmus test as well.

[TK421]

94. Oh, my apologies.....I forgot that you can't say anything negative about Gibbs, either

I just....forgot!

[Historic NY]

3. K&R

[jenmito]

4. Rec up to 0. n/t

[truedelphi]

11. In 1958, few "intelligent" Democrats even dreamed of John Kennedy being

In first place on a Democratic ticket for the WH race.

And yet, in 1960...

[awoke_in_2003]

53. "And yet, in 1960"...

and in 1963 the republic died.

[karynnj]

97. Not the same - we did not have a sitting Democratic party

I think you might be looking for 1968 when a President who could didn't run for re-election,

[obxhead]

17. I believe all the polls that come out in their various outlets.

Pigs will fly and rainbows will shoot out their ass one day as well.

While you very well may be right about Obama not facing a challenger, those polls don't reflect the thinking of a very large and diverse group that I speak and communicate with.

edit to add:

It took far more than the hardcore Dem base to elect Obama.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

23. Thank gawd for "the fringe" on this site, dating all the way back to 2001.

The Fringe was right about Dubya, and The Fringe is right about Obama. It's really nice to see the old DU alive and well, in spite of The Sensibles' best efforts to dilute this site, and the Democratic Party, into something unrecognizable. Cheer all you want, offer up blue links to your hearts' content, post condescending bullshit...we're not buying it. Too bad the rest of the country hasn't caught up.

[Pholus]

35. Absolutely! I may not agree with what y'all say but it is GOOD to hear it. And to argue.

Only republicans march in eerie lock step. I'd prefer to disagree with someone violently over one issue and then smile to find out we agree on something else.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

40. Stick around. It's going to get REAL interesting...

over tax cuts and Social Security; in other words, further destruction of the middle class. The locksteppers refuse to see it, or have some other agenda entirely.

[awoke_in_2003]

54. get yourself a pair of these....

life will be much better then :sarcasm:

[Bodhi BloodWave]

57. i'm curious about one thing that you maybe might answer

Whats the difference between those democrats walking in 'lockstep' supporting Obama and those democrats walking in 'lockstep' opposing him?

I mean if walking in 'lockstep' is bad doesn't that make both factions wrong?

[ampad]

64. Oh no

You see there is no difference because they are criticizing. As long as you walk lock step in your criticism then you are ok. I think there is one difference though. If you are an Obamabot I guess the worse you can say is that you love him to death. If you are part of a certain crowd here on DU that just hates the man; you can wish him to oh I don't know starve to death. Yup it has been said here.Yet some here expect their criticism to be taking seriously. I think the only ones who take it seriously anymore are the ones they are +1 themselves here on the DU,DK and Huffington Post.

[Pholus]

67. Hmmmm, how to answer. Okay -- only the "Sensible" dems have a PROBLEM with disagreement.

My experiences over TSA were eye opening. Just voicing my opinion about the ISSUE caused cries of "RW'er" because how dare I say something that might make the Prez look bad. I was obviously a "mole," a "plant," a "tool," a visiting freeper. Because it was obviously IMPOSSIBLE that any loyal dem might not like this, cause the Prez seems to want it.

Let's not get STARTED with the complete cave-in on tax cuts. This was predicted, the weasel words from the WH were obvious a month ago. But I was a disloyal dem in some people's eyes because I didn't WANT the Bush tax cuts to continue in any way, shape or form.

So let's get this straight -- criticism of the Prez is NEEDED here.

I DON'T WANT him to look bad. I WANT him to win. I just refuse to go into logical pretzels defending him when his actions are self destructive.

And that plain old pisses some people off.

The only people who want lockstep are the people annoyed with any criticism from the left of the Prez.

[ibegurpard]

43. thank you!

absolutely agree

[WorseBeforeBetter]

44. I am fucking fed up.

Never did I think a Democratic president would be selling out the American people on Social Security. Eight years of outrage over Bush policies and now two years of increasing disgust with Obama. It's really depressing.

[Skittles]

79. YUP

I WILL STAY AND FIGHT IGNORANCE! Heck, I LIVE IN TEXAS, I AM A PRO!!! :hi:

[Bullet1987]

24. I swear to God...if I see another argument backed up by questionable polling numbers...

[jefferson_dem]

26. Then what?

Do you find the polling numbers in the OP to be questionable?

[ampad]

36. Yes I would like to know what is questionable about those numbers

I notice that whenever some refute these poll numbers they never comment on the AA support. I think that it is a fair bet that most of the AA community is going to stand behind the first black president. With that said I want to know how they plan to bring that segment of the Dem base to the other side.

[NoPasaran]

63. What's questionable about them is they contradict the poster's beliefs

Just like all those lying polls about how we were going to take a beating in the midterms that turned out to be pretty darn accurate.

[Bullet1987]

84. I'm beginning to find everything the media says questionable

Why people put so much faith into polling is beyond me. Don't seniors by and large dominate as landline carriers nowadays? I wonder how many younger people were polled compared to other age groups and how much weight it was given. There are too many questions in polling period that cause me to question its legitimacy. Whenever the media and politicians use something so often to their advantage, it should be a cause of concern for anybody paying attention.

[Skittles]

80. don't you know, Bullet?

secretly, on the sidelines, they are CHEERING!!

[CakeGrrl]

31. I don't think there are any concrete ideas about how to support a challenger

I posted elsewhere that there was one theory that the grassroots needed to organize and demonstrate support for an AS-YET-UNNAMED primary challenger to embolden that person to announce. And what if some of those grassroots don't like who comes forward with that blank check of support?

Meh. With all the arguing that goes on in this corner of the liberal blogosphere, it'd be surprising to see such mobilization and coalescence occur. How is a demographic that abhors the concept of "marching in lockstep" going to unify behind some mystery challenger with the numbers to win key primaries?

People are still throwing out the same names that 1) have declared that they WOULD NOT challenge in a primary and/or 2) were just defeated in their own states/districts for their current positions.

[Pholus]

33. Well, the truth is we'll all stick behind Obama when push comes to shove.

The alternative is far worse, but it shouldn't be YET another case of the lesser of two evils.

I had a bit higher hopes for how this was going to turn out.

[nxylas]

70. I don't think a primary challenge to Obama is going to happen

However, Obama vs. Palin is a pretty depressing choice, if it comes to that. They may as well quit the pretence and offer a straight choice between President Goldman or President Sachs.

[Mosaic]

32. Way to think "forward'

Not! :mad: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:

[Name removed]

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[pa28]

39. Interesting question. What is the "base" really?

I've heard the idea advanced here that the "real base" is the center swing voter who turned out for Obama (or against the Bush status quo) in 2008.

Unfortunately many voters categorizing themselves as independent shifted sides and went Republican in 2010. Are those people really the base? Can infinite compromise on the part of the President turn them into loyal Democrats?

Since the iceberg is on the starboard side perhaps Captain Smith might weigh the merits of ah . . . turning left.

[Pholus]

41. The Titanic reference was as good as the "car in the ditch" one....

That was awesome! :)

Guess I should look for some deck chairs to rearrange....

[RC]

42. Sure his rating are high. Look at the so-called opposition.

The problem isn't the American people, it is our so-called leaders. We need new leaders and what we have now, in both parties, are making sure we don't get the change we need.

[Name removed]

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[OhioBlue]

46. I think it is ridiculous to be looking for a Primary challenger.

For crying out loud.....

We finally won on Health Care reform
we got financial reform
student loan reform
benefits for partners of LGBT Federal employees
2 SC Justices
We saved the economy from the Bush collapse
We saved GM from collapse
We DO have a voice in the WH as much as many would like to argue that we don't...

We can pick apart any legislation or any speeches or advocacy by the President... we all have our opinions and most are to the left of what the Congress and WH are doing and saying... BUT.. BUTTTTTTT dammit... look at where we were - look at where we are going... we are turning things around slowly. Is Obama today the liberal/progressive/populist transformative Pres that I hoped for??? Sadly No - But does that mean that I give up on him, on the Dem party? HELL NO..... I look at what he has had to deal with, come to terms that he might not be quite as liberal as me and accept the progress that we can make, recognize the potential that is there if we have an active, grass-roots, populist push and keep working.

There is not a Democratic President in History that we couldn't find fault with.

Dammit... there is so much potential here and it makes me sick to think we might piss it away by fighting with each other. the Republicans should be the target of our frustration - not fellow Dems.

[Pholus]

47. So this gets at the core of the issue. Are we TRULY being "ripped apart" because we're disagreeing?

Or is it the multitude of accusations concerning perceived disloyalty to the party because some people here have the opinion that we all need to be in lockstep. THAT is the thing ripping us apart.

[OhioBlue]

48. I completely disagree

Lockstep???? You honestly think that people are demanding that DUers walk in lockstep with the Dem leadership and THAT is what is ripping us apart?

C'mon!!!! Dammit - we can agree to disagree on things without tossing people to the curb. We can at the very least give people in our own party the benefit of the doubt before we actively look for things to pounce on to bitch about. Can't we at least TRY to look for the positive? Can't we at least promote the good things that our party does before we get enraged that they don't "fight hard enough"?

[Pholus]

68. Well, looks like the Bush era cuts are extending 1-3 years. Another sh*t taco. Mmmmmmm.

So try telling me, at what point SHOULD we get enraged?

[displacedvermoter]

86. Yes, I do honestly believe that a select crew of folks are

demanding total loyalty. It may not be ripping us apart, but it is certainly discomforting.

[harun]

69. We got Health Insurance Reform, not Health Care Reform.

Student loan reform and credit card consumer protections were good.

All Obama has to do is stand up to the Republican's. I do not think he will and he will lose in 2012 because of it.

[zipplewrath]

81. An odd list

We finally won on Health Care reform

We got nothing on health care reform. We got 15 year old GOP health INSURANCE reform passed. Complete with mandates and cadillac taxes, which Obama campaigned AGAINST.

we got financial reform

We got something, it remains to be seen what we actually got. One will note that bank stocks haven't exactly suffered from this reform.

student loan reform

The only thing we got was a change in how it is paid for. The loans haven't particularly changed.

benefits for partners of LGBT Federal employees

On an executive order. This is the same methodology that is claimed to be inappropriate for DADT.

2 SC Justices

Of dubious left leaning tendencies. They may be moderate, but it is dubious they will be particularly left leaning.

We saved the economy from the Bush collapse

Remains to be seen. It is a work in progress. Collapse is still possible.

We saved GM from collapse

From COMPLETE collapse. Yes, it could have been much worse.

We DO have a voice in the WH as much as many would like to argue that we don't...

Well, someone does. I haven't seen much evidence that anything I particularly voted for is going to happen.

Your entire point seems to be that it could have been much worse.

Huge change from the heady days of "Yes we can". Apprently we elected "Hey, it could be worse".

[Hawkowl]

49. Primary or no, he's toast

Either we get a new candidate or the base sits at home--just like the midterms- and Obama gets a well deserved ass kicking.

[CakeGrrl]

51. Yeah, that "ass-kicking" will really hurt Obama. Not.

People who seriously claim a Republican wouldn't be much worse will find out the hard way that there really IS a difference after all.

Whose asses will REALLY be kicked when Republicans take the Executive Branch? Not the man who will return to public life with his family. Voting him out isn't equivalent to destroying him, so if punishment is what people seek, it'll backfire.

[ampad]

65. Yes they want punishment

They want to punish Obama and punish those who would dare support Obama. They are gonna show us one way or another. Although as it has been stated time and time again time is running out. I am anxious to see all their hard work. I want to see who they have as a primary challenge. We are all waiting.

[Whisp]

52. who is that candidate the royal 'we' will get?

seriously, time is running out.

who is it?

[Starbucks Anarchist]

58. Your wish is nobody's command.

And if a Republican wins in 2012, you and your ilk will be first in line to complain.

[polichick]

61. That's probably true - but look for a third party candidate to step forward. nt

[Name removed]

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[girl gone mad]

50. If it's so preposterous, why keep talking about it.

It reminds me of the "Hillary is the inevitable nominee" meme.

[polichick]

62. Fear. nt

[Name removed]

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[TK421]

96. And here is your response, and if it was a topic that didn't concern me in the least

I wouldn't have even bothered responding, but again...here you are, in all your snark-alicious glory

And I guess I should tell you, those ROFL smilies ( because gosh..there are so many of them ) have really changed my attitude...I mean, really...such a compelling argument you got there! Without smilies, would we even see your type? Think about it...a world, without smilies....

Scary....I know, I know

[burning rain]

55. Well, I certainly agree that no one's going to unhorse him in a primary.

That's never happened to a sitting president. Even the maximally lackluster Jerry Ford edged the maximally charismatic Ronald Reagan in 1976.

[Umbral]

56. "keep dreaming that the fringe here..."

...will show up and vote for your golden boy. Never mind that they are the same people that predicted a Republican route while the "Healthcare' debate was still raging. If you really think that the fringe here is different than the fringe everywhere, well... keep on sucking that bubble, it's filled with helium, it makes you sound funny.

[Axrendale]

59. Excellent post, and I would add a further message to the "dreamers":

There is a huge world of difference between a dark horse (no pun intended) candidate securing his party's nomination for the presidency in a field uncluttered by any incumbent - whether it is John F. Kennedy's systematic execution of Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey in 1960 or Barack Obama's dramatic upset of Hillary Clinton in 2008 - and a successful challenge being mounted against an incumbent, even a weak incumbent, let alone one as accomplished and canny as President Obama.

At the end of the day I think that the message has to be rammed home that has already been brought up on this thread: Ted Kennedy could not beat Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan could not beat Gerald Ford in 1976 (or Richard Nixon in 1972 and 1968). Richard Nixon was renominated by his party with relative ease in spite of having pissed off large swathes of the Republican Base. Lyndon Johnson, if he had kept going in 1968, would quite likely have secured the nomination ultimately, as would have Harry Truman - both were disuaded from running for a second full term more by their wariness of their chances in the election rather than the nomination. Dwight D. Eisenhower and Franklin Roosevelt crushed internal challenges to their own renomination without even having to look down. Even Herbert Hoover was renominated by the Republicans in 1932.

If Obama wants to run for President in 2012, then the nomination is his for the taking. The election itself is somewhat more murkey at this point, but it would be truly foolish to write him off at this point, with almost two years to go before the ballots are cast. His position, both with the Democratic Party Base (however one wishes to define it) and with the body politic as a whole, is no worse, and indeed arguably quite a bit better, than that of Bill Clinton in 1994, Ronald Reagan in 1982, Richard Nixon in 1970, or Harry Truman in 1946. And we all know how the elections of 1996, 1984, 1972, and 1948 turned out.

[adigal]

74. Well, then, I am praying Obama decides to not run

and someone who is actually concerned about the middle and lower classes runs instead. Because Obama is going to lose in 2012 if he doesn't start to fight back. I will vote, but not give the time or money I gave to him in 2008.

[TheWraith]

60. Ah shit, I accidentally hit unrec instead of rec!

Dammit. Well, kicked at any rate.

[Union Scribe]

82. Don't worry, you can fix it after the bill passes.

[harun]

66. I hope there is a Tea-party independant run and a Progressive independant run.

Guarantee there will be at least one of the two. We have Corporate choice 1 and 2 as it is.

[polichick]

89. That would make it interesting! nt

[avaistheone1]

75. If Obama is fortunate enough to win the Dem nomination, he will still lose the presidency.

I think most Americans have grown tired of him. Obama is mostly all talk.

He can always go back to Chicago and talk in his mirror. Or perhaps Oprah can give Michelle and him a really big show.

[Name removed]

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[Ganja Ninja]

83. So you don't think a coherent bloc of Democratic voters have soured on Obama?

You're the one whose dreaming.

[obxhead]

85. Keep dreaming that the base alone can reelect Obama. nt

[Uzybone]

87. the foaming at the mouth fringe of any group

always thinks its the most important.

The "primary-Obamites" are no different from the religious fundies in that they both consider themselves the movers and shakers of thier parties.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

88. If he caves on these tax cuts, I am 100% done with him! DONE!!! n/t

[Larkspur]

90. Where were these Obama supporters in 2010?

How many of them stayed home because Obama wasn't on the ticket?

[creon]

91. Very unlikely

It is very unlikely that there will be a serious primary challenge to Obama.

There is no one with the stature to do so. There may be a quixotic one though.

This is much more important:

get 218 progressives elected to the HoR.

get 51 progressives elected to the Senate.


If you want progressive legislation to be passed, that needs to be done.

[creon]

92. Blood in the water

I see a feeding frenzy.

Or, is this little story on point?

http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?4&TheScorpionandtheFrog

[Phx_Dem]

93. Progressives are still dreaming about a Ralph Nader-like challenge,

because that worked out so well last time. and progressives have always risen to the top of the heap in Democratic primaries.

Let's see, Dennis Kuchinich, um no. Howard Dean, nope. Even John Edwards who was no kind of progressive, but tried to act like he was . . no.

Next . . .