How Dems can still eke out a bitter but significant victory
By Adam Serwer
It looks as though the parties are close to deal on the extension of all of the Bush tax cuts for two years in exchange for an extension of unemployment benefits. This is a tremendous capitulation for Democrats and a huge win for Republicans, but depending on how it plays out there may be a bright silver lining for the left.
The good news is that a deal on tax cuts will pave the way for the Democrats to move forward on other important parts of their agenda -- repeal of don't ask don't tell and the START Treaty, since at least two Republicans have indicated a willingness to vote to repeal DADT if a deal on tax cuts is reached. Passage of the DREAM Act would make turn the lame-duck session into a significant net victory for Democrats, but even with substantial revisions to the bill and a CBO score showing the bill reduces the deficit, passage seems like a long shot.The bad news is that, as Ezra Klein has written, unemployment benefits should really be extended as long as unemployment is above seven percent, so this is a fight we're going to see again in the near future. If necessary, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid should, as Steve Benen writes, extend the lame-duck session.
If the deal is to extend all the Bush tax cuts for two years as some outlets are reporting, then, as Kevin Drum writes, that sets the Democrats up for another political fight over tax cuts that is likely to play to the GOP's advantage. In 2012, when the president is running for reelection, one of the biggest political fights will be over tax cuts, a terrain the Republican Party feels confident playing on -- and for obvious reasons. Despite the Democratic majority in both houses and control of the presidency, the GOP just leveraged a deal that gives them everything they want -- despite the fact that only about a quarter of the country shares their view.
There are significant downsides, but having fumbled the ball at every stage in the game, a deal that allows an extension of unemployment benefits, passage of DADT repeal and START may be the best possible outcome. For the president in particular, repealing DADT will give him an important symbolic victory to tout in 2012, the kind of historic win that will make disillusioned liberals go to the polls and remember why they put Obama in office in the first place.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/12/the_best_possible_deal.html