The 4 things to know about Obama and a '12 primary

[ProSense]

The 4 things to know about Obama and a '12 primary

By Steve Kornacki

If he read much political commentary over the weekend, maybe President Obama noticed a trend: His allies (or one-time allies) on the left seem increasingly upset, and their calls for action are growing more specific.

On Saturday, Michael Lerner, the longtime progressive Jewish activist, used a Washington Post Op-Ed to urge progressives to organize a challenge to the president in the 2012 Democratic primaries -- and supplied a list of 22 potential candidates. (A sampling: Bernie Sanders, Bill Moyers and Susan Sarandon.) His call was echoed a day later by Clarence Jones, a scholar and former Martin Luther King aide, who wrote at the Huffington Post that, "(i)t is not easy to consider challenging the first African-American to be elected as President of the United States. But, regrettably, I believe that the time has come to do this."

And while he didn't address the subject of a primary challenge, Frank Rich did use his Sunday New York Times column to blast Obama as "so indistinct no one across the entire political spectrum knows who he is."

This discontent, to be sure, is completely genuine and, in many cases, well-grounded. But given that columns like these feed one of the media's favorite storyline (Who will be the Democrat who takes on Obama in '12), a reality check is probably in order: Obama is actually well-positioned to avoid a serious primary challenge in 2012. There are four main reasons why:

1. Obama is actually not that unpopular with Democrats. For all the grief he's taking from the liberal commentariat, Obama's standing with rank-and-file Democrats is actually quite strong. According to Gallup's most recent data, 81 percent of Democrats currently approve of the job he's done as president. That's 7 points higher than Bill Clinton's score after the Democrats' 1994 midterm drubbing and 5 points higher than Ronald Reagan's score among Republicans after the 1982 midterms. Notably, the last Democratic president to receive a serious primary challenge, Jimmy Carter, was at just 62 percent among Democrats at this point in his presidency -- the same score that Lyndon Johnson, who was challenged in the 1968 primaries, posted after the party was throttled in the 1966 midterms. It's possible that Obama's numbers will drop in the months ahead, particularly if opinion-shaping Democrats step up their attacks on him. But it's worth keeping in mind that opinion-shaping voices on the left have been voicing profound displeasure with Obama for some time now, but it hasn't trickled down.

2. There's no great ideological divide in the party. Yes, there is real disappointment from many prominent liberals that Obama hasn't produced more results on their issues -- or at least demonstrated more of a zest for confrontation with Republicans. But fundamentally, Democratic voters still view Obama as a guy who is on their side -- and who is up against Republican opponents who are dedicated to destroying him. And it's not that hard to frame Obama's first two years in terms that resonate strongly with the party base. Here's how Andrew Sullivan, taking issue with Rich's excoriation of Obama, tells the story of Obama's presidency to date:

(He's) prevented a second great depression, rescued Detroit, bailed out the banks, pitlessly isolated Tehran's regime, exposed Netanyahu, decimated al Qaeda's mid-level leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan, withdrawn troops from Iraq on schedule, gotten two Justices on the Supreme Court, cut a point or two off the unemployment rate with the stimulus, seen real wages for those employed grow, presided over a stock market boom and record corporate profits, and maneuvered a GOP still intoxicated with failed ideology to become more and more wedded to white, old evangelicals led by Sarah Palin.

The Democratic base still very much likes Obama -- and he has the message and the communication skills to stay in their good graces.

more

So Lerner is simply trying to save the Obama Presidency by splitting the party?

Here's more from Clarence Jones: Martin Luther King, Jr. and Glenn Beck's 'Restoration of Honor' Rally

<...>

The Lord works in mysterious ways, and he has wonders to perform. Accordingly, we extend the hand of fellowship to Beck, Palin and their followers this weekend, and ask them to symbolically join hands with us to recommit ourselves to Dr. King's "Dream."

Seriously, this is the person who thinks President Obama should be primaried, a guy who bought into Beck's hype?

[jaxx]

1. I can see them sitting around the dungeons saying

"on this date it says we can spring a primary on him". People read into history what they want to see at times, missing the facts that the idea didn't work. Duh...

[polichick]

2. If there's no worry about it, why all the threads like this? nt

[villager]

3. it's the same "not worry" they have about Wikileaks, I reckon...

n/t

[ProSense]

5. Why are you bothered by the thread?

There are plenty of threads about primarying the President to choose from. Why are you bothered by a counter to that POV?

[polichick]

6. Can't say I'm bothered - more amused by the need to protest so much. nt

[ProSense]

7. The calls for a primary are also protests, and I find them amusing

and slightly suspect.

[polichick]

8. How "suspect?" nt

[ProSense]

12. Three months into the Obama Presidency

Robert Kuttner: Obama's Loyal Opposition

Progressives now find themselves in an awkward position of simultaneously wishing Barack Obama well, but feeling dismayed by his policies on some key issues, most notably the banking bailout. If this were a normal economic situation, the posture of semi-opposition would not be that big a deal. We would simply gratefully accept the decent policies and keep pressing for bolder ones. But a failure to revive the banking system would be Obama's Vietnam. It would wreck everything else.

<...>

Some of these people began the narrative of a failed Presidency even before it took off. Kuttner was pushing his book, A Presidency in Peril, even as a historic health care reform act was on the verge of being signed into law. In December 2009, he and others were pondering what a defeat of such a bill would mean for the President.

[bigdarryl]

4. He's not unpopular with democrats but the problem is there not motivated to vote

that's what happened last month.And if he keeps caving to the rethugs the same thing is going to happen in 2012

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. Midterms for us always seem to be notoriously bad for us in general

Plus the Republicans had the "Tea Party" phenomenon whom were energized with no comparable (or greater) counterpart on the left. It's really unclear, at least to me what could've been done "better" or different to "motivate" all of the voters from 2008, particularly the first-time/younger voters, to show up in droves for a midterm election that Obama himself wasn't on the ballot for. Our party and, more importantly, activists, need to stop treating elections as being important only around election time and keep the grassroots activism and organization engaged and going full steam at all times so as to be able to keep up with the Republicans.

[Clio the Leo]

9. "Obama is actually not that unpopular with Democrats."

The fact that even has to be reminded is ---> :rofl:

GET A GRIP PEOPLE!

[ProSense]

10. It's psyops really.

Everyone knows that the media noise can depress turnout. The constant calls for a primary are an attempt to do something similar: cause people to give up hope. As the OP point outs, they aren't succeeding.

[monmouth]

13. Bill Moyers, Susan Sarandon??? Egads, great people in their

professions but wow, presidential material I think NOT!