Ezra Klein: How the White House cut its deal and lost its base

[flpoljunkie]

How the White House cut its deal and lost its base
By Ezra Klein



If you look at the numbers alone, the tax cut deal looks to have robbed Republicans blind. The GOP got around $95 billion in tax cuts for wealthy Americans and $30 billion in estate tax cuts. Democrats got $120 billion in payroll-tax cuts, $40 billion in refundable tax credits (Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit and education tax credits), $56 billion in unemployment insurance, and, depending on how you count it, about $180 billion (two-year cost) or $30 billion (10-year cost) in new tax incentives for businesses to invest.

But that's not how it's being understood. Republicans are treating it as a victory, and liberals as a defeat. Which raises two separate questions: Why did Republicans give Obama so much? And why aren't Democrats happier about it?

Let's start with the Republicans. For one thing, the things they wanted were things they really, really wanted. A number of sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations have fingered the estate tax as the major player in the size of the deal. "Republicans were extremely eager to get benefits for the top tenth of a percent of Americans," says one senior administration official.

It was the estate tax, in this telling, that secured Republican support for, among other things, the two-year extension of the refundable tax credits and the payroll tax cut. Republicans believe that the two-year extension of the estate tax at Lincoln-Kyl levels will turn into a permanent extension of the estate tax at Lincoln-Kyl levels. So they attached much more importance to it than the price tag might suggest.

more...

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/12/how_the_white_house_cut_the_de.html

[Crazy Dave]

1. The rich cuts will be made up for by stealing from SS and Medicare n/t

[Vinnie From Indy]

4. +1

This is just the opening gambit. As sure as the Sun rises in the East, we will now enter phase two which includes a coordinated, relentless media campaign about deficits combined with incessant repetition that the ONLY way to save the nation is to attack and reduce SS for Americans.

I am shocked that so many progressives and Obama apologists do not see this coming.

[Canuckistanian]

7. Exactly. This isn't the end of their demands

In fact, it will just INCREASE their demands to get MORE and MORE concessions.

If it ended here, then yes, it might have been a net benefit.

But it WON'T end here, will it?

[DJ13]

2. I know Obama is a smart guy

I would think that a smart guy could figure out that if he feels he has to serially defend himself with his supporters that means he's doing something wrong.

[Mass]

3. If even Ezra Klein gets it, there is a problem.

Which brings us to the liberals. My conversations with various progressives over the past 24 hours have convinced me that the problem is less the specifics of the deal -- though liberals legitimately dislike the tax cuts for the rich, and rightly point out that Obama swore to let them expire -- than the way in which it was reached. Put simply, Obama and the Democrats didn't fight for them. There were no veto threats or serious effort to take the case to the public.

Instead, the White House disappeared into a closed room with the Republicans and cut a deal that they'd made no effort to sell to progressives. When the deal was cut, the president took an oblique shot at their preferences, saying "the American people didn’t send us here to wage symbolic battles or win symbolic victories." And this came a mere week or two after the White House announced a federal pay freeze. The pattern, for progressives, seems clear: The White House uses them during elections, but doesn't listen to, or consult them, while governing. In fact, it insults them, and then tells them to quiet down, they got the best bargain possible, even if it wasn't the one they'd asked for, or been promised.
...
That the Obama administration has turned out to be fairly good at the inside Washington game of negotiations and legislative compromise and quite bad at communicating to the public and keeping their base excited is not what most would have predicted during the 2008 campaign. But it's true.

[flpoljunkie]

6. In the end, I expect the American people won't care if the top 2% got their tax cut, as long as

their tax cut does not go away on January 1st and they will be pleased to get a payroll tax cut, as well. I think President Obama wanted to get this done so that the Congress could move on and pass START and DADT, and at least get a vote on the DREAM Act (all very worthy of passage). I hope he gets them all done.

[Uzybone]

5. Klein says liberals want more theatrics and campaigning

vs. actual governing.

I disagree.

[Phx_Dem]

9. I agree with him. They want a show.

[Number23]

12. That's certainly what it seems like

From the article:

"If you're worried about stimulus, joblessness and the working poor, this is probably a better deal than you thought you were going to get. "It’s a bigger deal than anyone expected," says Bob Greenstein, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "Both sides gave more expected and both sides got more than expected." The White House walked out of the negotiations with more stimulus than anyone had seen coming. But they did it in a way that made their staunchest allies feel left behind, and in many cases, utterly betrayed."

So even though the president got something that any thinking liberal should be ecstatic over, because he didn't kiss liberal ass in the process while simultaneously threatening Repubs with a sawed off shotgun, it's a "betrayal." Pitiful.

[pscot]

13. Wait. I thought we wanted a pony

It certainly smells like pony.

[CakeGrrl]

11. I agree. They want Luke Skywalker vs. the Empire.

And if they don't like Obama, they (may) find another hero and discard that person for not raising a magic lightsaber against Emperor Boehner and Grand Moff McConnell and making them disappear in a blaze of sparks.

The disappointment will set in again when a 100% Progressive agenda cannot be put through Washington intact as long as Republicans and Blue Dogs exist.

[ClarkUSA]

8. Is this the new outrage meme? More media whore bullshit stirring! YAY!

[ellie]

10. Obama doesn't care about his base.

[ClarkUSA]

14. lol! Says who? You? I'll bet the most loyal Dem voter base demographic disagrees w/you.

BTW, that'd be African-Americans, whose approval of President Obama won't be dented by this purity test dreamed up by those who have the luxury of debating politics while millions of unemployed 99ers were panicking and depressed and are now hopeful.

[JamesA1102]

15. "If you look at the numbers alone, the tax cut deal looks to have robbed Republicans blind. "

The GOP got around $95 billion in tax cuts for wealthy Americans and $30 billion in estate tax cuts. Democrats got $120 billion in payroll-tax cuts, $40 billion in refundable tax credits (Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit and education tax credits), $56 billion in unemployment insurance, and, depending on how you count it, about $180 billion (two-year cost) or $30 billion (10-year cost) in new tax incentives for businesses to invest.

This proves that the right is better at messaging while the left shoots itself in the foot by making the perfect the enemy of the good.

[KoKo]

16. OBAMA..did......CEO CORPORATE SPEAK! He's ONE OF THEM!

He's run by WALL STREET BANKERS...WHAT DO YOU EXPECT. He doesn't have an INDEPENDENT THOUGHT IN HIS HEAD!

HE WAS A "PLACE HOLDER!" NOT A DEMOCRAT.... A PLACE HOLDER!