New 2012 Poll: Obama easily wins Minnesota against all potential rivals

[WI_DEM]

PPP is conducting 2012 polls in several key states. So far Obama is running well in Minnesota, Michigan and leads all GOP candidates in Virginia and ties them or runs ahead of them in North Carolina (except for Hucklebee):


Obama looks good in Minnesota
Barack Obama would win Minnesota pretty easily if he had to run for reelection today and in a bit of a surprise his stiffest competition would come not from the state's Governor Tim Pawlenty, but from Mitt Romney.

Obama's not particularly popular in Minnesota. 49% of voters in the state approve of him while 46% disapprove. His numbers are pretty completely polarized with 89% of Democrats approving of him and 90% of Republicans disapproving. Independents are pretty closely divided but lean slightly in favor of the President's performance by a 48/44 spread.

Obama may not be overwhelmingly well liked but he's certainly seen more favorably by the state's voters than his potential Republican foes. Mike Huckabee has the best personal favorability scores with 37% of voters viewing him positively to 40% negatively. Romney's spread is 32/42, Newt Gingrich's is 30/52, and Sarah Palin's is 35/60.

Pawlenty will leave office as an unpopular Governor. 43% of voters in the state approve of him while 53% disapprove. Democrats are more unified in disliking Pawlenty (89% disapproval) than Republicans are in their favor of him (83% approval.) Beyond that independents disapprove of him by a 40/56 spread. The importance of Pawlenty's unpopularity shouldn't be underestimated in Democrats picking up the Minnesota Governor's office this year in an otherwise dreadful year for the party. While Democratic Gubernatorial candidates in many states were having to deal with the weight of an unpopular President and an unpopular Democratic Governor Mark Dayton benefited by having the impact of an an unpopular President at least partially balanced out by his opponent having to deal with the weight of an unpopular Republican Governor.

In the closest head to head match up for President Obama leads Romney 47-42. Doing next best is Pawlenty at a 51-43 disadvantage, followed by Huckabee at 50-40, Gingrich at 51-38, and Palin at 54-36.

Obama gets more than 90% of the Democratic vote against all five Republicans. His numbers with independents vary a good bit though, from a 2 point lead over Romney to a 12 point one over Huckabee and Pawlenty, an 18 point one over Gingrich, and a 25 point one over Palin. There's also a fair amount of variability in the willingness of Republicans to support their various possible nominees- 90% say they'd vote for Pawlenty, 87% would vote for Romney, 84% for Huckabee, 81% for Gingrich, and just 76% for Palin.

The bottom line: against any Republican nominee other than Romney, Obama would do as well or better than he did in Minnesota in 2008. And even against Romney Obama's lead is better than what Democrats were able to do in the state in 2000 and 2004. Obama's standing's going to have to get a lot worse or the Republican candidate field's going to have to get a lot better for Minnesota to be a swing state in 2012.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/obama-looks-good-in-minnesota.html

[AndrewP]

1. Congrats to the President

[Kaleva]

2. In another poll, Michigan will go to President Obama. Romney is strongest challenger.

[bigdarryl]

3. BUT BUT !! his base is caving

LOL!!!

[bowens43]

4. So.....

he could be elected President of Minnesota?

[WI_DEM]

5. But I thought according to DU the base doesn't care for him

According to this poll he gets 90% of the Democratic vote.

I have other polls including one from Virginia where he's leading all GOP candidates by 5-11 points which you might be more impressed with. Remember Obama was the first candidate to carry VA on the Democratic ticket since 1964. If he wins VA again and all the regularly blue states he pretty much wins the election.

[AndrewP]

6. 10 delegates down.....

[Robbins]

7. Nice

Obama winning Minnesotta as well as Michigan after the 2010 election.He will kill Palin.Romney at this point can make things a bit close because of Independents but let people know the truth about all his flip flops.

If Huchabee could get through the Republican primary he appears to do well In south(although Obama would keep Virgina according to realable poll)but would not do well In midwest(apart from Missouri,and likely Indiana)and I suspect would not play well In
Nevada,NM,and Colorado out west.

[WI_DEM]

8. Yes, that is the problem with Romney. He can't run on health care

because many elements of the Obama plan were in the MA plan that Romney (as well as Ted Kennedy) supported. He has flip-flopped on the issue of abortion. Romney has a lot of negatives once exposed. I also don't think teabaggers will accept him.

[Robbins]

11. I agree

Teabaggers will not like Romney.I suspect he will flip even further to the right to get the nomination.Romney's path to nomination
Is Palin,Huchabee and Gingrich splitting the tea bagger and far right vote.

Obama and his people will have a field day with romney.This was guy back In 1994 who claimed he was more progay than Ted Kennedy.
And who used to be prochoice before preparring to run for president the first time.In republican primary they will likely use clips
of him saying he was not part of reagan and Bush cwoad when preparing to run for governor.His health care plan In MA will be used
against any statement he makes attacking the Obama Health care law.

And In debate Obama could say the left of his party wanted the Public opotion In health care reform and he took a more center approach and say when has Romney not done exactly what tea baggers want.

Romney can be attacked like Kerry was.Only there will not be reason to lie like the swift boat liars.

[griffi94]

9. wow

he's winning the hell out the mostly solid blue states.
i wonder how he'll do in OH, NC, VA, IN, MO, and PA

i really wonder how he'll do in the swing states if the economy is still tanked and the unemployment rate is hovering around 10% and the deficit is thru the roof.

[WI_DEM]

10. PPP had a poll two weeks ago from VA--he's winning there by 5-11 points

based on who the candidate is. North Carolina they polled a few days after that and he's tied or ahead there with everyone except Huck who leads by a few points.

[Robbins]

12. MO

Here PPP says Huchabee and Romney would win but Obama would beat Palin.He was basiclly tied with Gingrich.So If Palin Is the nominee
and I think there Is good chance she will be Inless Gingrich and Huckabee split the Tea baggers/Far right vote she puts Missouri In
play.

[griffi94]

17. i'll be surprised if palin even runs

she's a media star now and will most probly work 2012 from that angle. polling data suggests she can't win the nomination.
it's 2 years out but if i had to guess, i'd guess romney and i think he'll be hard to beat. it wouldn't surprise me if he won because i expect the indies will turnout for him and enough of the teabaggers will vote for anybody but obama that they could put him over the top.

[Robbins]

21. Palin

Quinnpic had poll after election with her outfront.Republicans always go for a front runner.And unlike Saint Rudy her views are totally In line with them

Remember this Is worst time for Obama yet Obama Is ahead In Minnesotta,Michigan,Virginia,and NC against Romney without the campagin begining In full.

[griffi94]

23. and as i've already said

if the election were today he'd win.

as for this being the worst time for obama, it's worse than it was 2 years ago and it could easily be worse still in 2 more years.

i won't be surprised if he loses in 2012

[griffi94]

13. and if the election were today he'd win

but it's not for 2 more years. if the economy and jobs situations isn't seriously improved then i think he'll get toasted.

i don't believe he can hold the indies. with only 2 parties to vote for the one not in the whiehouse will get their vote next time.

[Ter]

14. Big deal, Republicans don't need MN

Even Reagan lost it in 1984, and he won every other state.

[WI_DEM]

19. See my post below for polls showing Obama up in VA, leading all but Huck in NC

and even with high unemployment winning by double digits in Michigan.

[Ter]

24. Now that's different

I don't think the Republicans can win without Virginia and North Carolina. Not at all. I don't think Michigan is a must for them. Didn't Bush II lose it twice?

[readmoreoften]

15. It's Minnesota. Are you kidding?

[WI_DEM]

18. don't worry I will list all polls--did you see this one from Virginia?

Obama looking solid in Virginia

Barack Obama was the first Democratic Presidential candidate to win Virginia in a generation in 2008 and a new PPP survey finds that with the most mentioned possible 2012 GOP hopefuls viewed dimly in the state he'd probably do it again if he had to stand for election today.

Obama leads Mitt Romney (48-43) and Mike Huckabee (49-44) each by 5 points in hypothetical contests, a margin similar to his victory over John McCain in the state. If the Republican nominee was either Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin Obama's lead widens to 11 points, by spreads of 52-41 and 51-40 respectively.

Obama has pretty good approval numbers in the state with 50% of voters giving him good marks to 45% who disapprove. His numbers certainly compare well to the favorability numbers of the top GOP contenders. Only Huckabee, at 40/40, can even break even on that front. The rest of the crowd has pretty negative numbers with Mitt Romney at -13 (33/46), Newt Gingrich at -21 (32/53), and Sarah Palin at -23 (35/58).

These strong numbers for Obama may seem surprising after 2 good Republican years in Virginia but they're a reminder that a huge part of that GOP success was Democratic voters staying home. The 2009 Virginia exit poll showed those who voted had supported John McCain by 8 points in 2008, a huge contrast to Obama's actual 6 point victory in the state. That 14 point enthusiasm gap is twice what was seen at the national level in this year's election where there was only a 7 point gap between who showed up this year and the popular vote in 2008. So Democratic performance in Virginia, more so than most places, has a lot of room to improve in 2012 just by people showing back up.

Going inside the numbers Obama pretty much breaks even with independents against Romney and Huckabee and then leads Gingrich by 8 points and Palin by 17 with them. He also benefits from getting more than 90% of the Democratic vote against all 4 of the Republicans, while they each get just 79-85% of the GOP vote.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-11-16T14%3A31%3A00-05%3A00&max-results=10

or North Carolina?

NC looks like it would be competitive again

Barack Obama isn't all that popular in North Carolina...but neither are most of the leading Republican Presidential contenders for 2012. Because of that if the election was held today Obama would be right in contention to win the state again when he comes up for reelection.

Obama's approval rating in the state is 45%, with 51% of voters disapproving. That makes him a lot more popular than Sarah Palin (36/55 favorability spread), a little more popular than Newt Gingrich (34/43), and about the same as Mitt Romney (33/38). The only one of the Republicans who gets significantly better reviews from North Carolina voters than Obama is Mike Huckabee, who 44% in the state have a positive opinion of to just 31% with a negative one.

Huckabee is also the only one of the Republicans who Obama trails in a hypothetical reelection contest. The former Arkansas Governor edges him 48-44. Huckabee does the best job both of unifying Republican voters (87% support from them) and earning crossover support from Democratic voters (winning over 21% of them.)

Beyond Huckabee though Obama does about the same or even better than he did against John McCain against the rest of the Republican contenders. He holds Mitt Romney to a 44-44 draw, has the slightest of edges over Newt Gingrich at 46-45, and leads Sarah Palin by a 48-43 spread.

How about Michigan which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation?

Obama solid in Michigan

The economy's hit Michigan harder than most places and Democrats in the state were defeated badly in last month's election. Nevertheless Barack Obama leads all of his top prospective Republican opponents for reelection in the state and with the exception of Mitt Romney, the margins are all in double digits.

Obama has decent approval numbers in Michigan with 50% of voters giving him good marks to 45% who are unhappy with his job performance. Democrats are pretty universally still happy with him, with 90% expressing approval. Republicans strongly disapprove of Obama but not quite to the extent that Democrats like him- 85% of them give the President bad marks. Independents split slightly in favor of Obama, approving of him by a 47/44 margin.

Compared to the Republican field Obama's numbers look stratospheric. Only Romney is viewed favorably by a plurality of voters in the state, with 39% holding a favorable opinion to 37% with an unfavorable one. Beyond him the GOP field ranges from slightly unpopular (Mike Huckabee's 37/40 favorability) to very unpopular (Newt Gingrich's 28/50), to extremely unpopular (Sarah Palin's 34/60). What might be most striking for the Republicans beyond Romney is their numbers with independents. Huckabee's net favorability with them is -14 (29/43), Gingrich's is -39 (20/59), and Palin's is -40 (28/68).

At this point it looks like Michigan would be a swing state in 2012 only if Romney secured the nomination. He trails Obama 47-43 in a hypothetical contest. Obama crushes the rest of the Republican field by margins pretty comparable to what he received against John McCain in the state in 2008- it's 12 points over Huckabee at 51-39, 15 over Gingrich at 52-37, and 21 over Palin at 56-35.

[William769]

16. Well Republicans and their enablers seem to be doing well in the polls right now.

[WI_DEM]

20. I get a kick out of all the people who say, "it's only MN"

well if Obama is in such trouble with "the base" why is he leading in Minnesota. Also, you tend to forget that Gore and Kerry just barely won Minnesota. This isn't the only poll I've published on DU. It's just the latest. Obama is ahead in Virginia and Michigan too. In North Carolina he's either tied or barely behind one candidate, Hucklebee. As other polls come to light, I'll publish them, too.

[Robbins]

22. I agree

Gore and Kerry barely won Minnesotta.Obama kills Palin,Gingrich,and Huchabee.Even against Romney It Is better than 2000 or 2004.
And remember right now noone spends much time talking about Republicans and their views.Romney Is this clse because from past he
Is thought of as a moderate.A good campagin can undo him very easily.

[mikekohr]

25. The Virginia Results bode very well for the President