Why a progressive primary challenge to Obama in 2012 is doomed to fail

[Kaleva]

Here are some excerpts from a NY Times article published 11/05/08:

"Initial signs were that Mr. Obama benefited from a huge turnout of voters, but particularly among blacks. That group of voters made up 13 percent of the electorate on Tuesday, according to surveys of people leaving the polls, compared with 11 percent in 2006. In North Carolina, Republicans said that the huge surge of African-Americans was one of the big factors that lead to Mrs. Dole’s loss."

"Blacks made up 13 percent of the total electorate, up from 11 percent last time, the polls showed. More than 95 percent of them said they had voted for Mr. Obama, an African-American."

"The first exit polls suggested a spike in voting among blacks that had been a source of concern among Republicans: 13 percent of the electorate, compared with 11 percent in 2004."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/us/politics/05campaign.html

2008 Primary Indicators

"According to the DNC (Democratic National Committee), Black voter turnout reached a highpoint in the 2008 primaries. Certainly, the uniqueness of the candidates bolstered this turnout. In South Carolina 48% of all primary voters was African American. Georgia saw an 85% increase in Black voters from 2004. Likewise, around the nation a boom in Black turnout was evident."

http://www.suite101.com/content/african-american-voting-patterns-a63891

The link below has a table that shows that Obama got 85% of the black vote in the 2008 primaries and contains the following comment:

"When black support is so overwhelmingly one-sided, that 7.5 point jump makes an enormous difference. It clearly put Obama over the top. Without blacks, Hillary crushes Obama, 57.1%-42.9%; a victory more lopsided than George HW Bush's win over Michael Dukakis in '88."

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2008/06/democratic-nomination-voter-totals-by.html

Info on President Obama's current job approval rating amongst blacks:

"Racial groups also continue to give significantly different assessments of Obama's job performance. Currently, 89% of blacks approve, compared with 37% of non-Hispanic whites. While no more than 40% of whites have approved of Obama since May, approval among blacks has yet to drop below 85% in any week of his presidency."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145097/Obama-Approval-Rating-Holding-Steady-Midterm.aspx

Unless a progressive that has the stature, name recognition, national political connections and funds that HRC had steps forward to challenge the President, I see of no way a progressive can mount anymore then a token or "message" campaign against him. One has to assume that the more conservative and moderate Dems will not likely support a candidate seen as more liberal then President Obama and that he will get the vast majority of the black vote as he did in the 2008 primaries and general election. That doesn't leave a potential challenger much of an opportunity to win any state.

[Go2Peace]

1. It's not about the Presidency.

The President is indeed likely to remain the Democratic candidate. But will we loose our ass in the Senate? We have a huge momentum deficit because the leadership does not have a strong defining message and is not taking hard stands.

How in the world did the Republicans have a comeback with such recent disasters and such a terrible track record? Because our message is incredibly weak and our leadership defines themselves using the opposition's frames and ideological stands.

[Kaleva]

2. I wrote the OP mainly as a response...

to those here who believe that President Obama ought to be and/or will be challenged by a progressive and that progressive, in their view, has a very good chance to win. As for Dems retaining control of the Senate, that would be a different topic.