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Liberals need not fear Obama's tax deal: Why a payroll tax holiday actually helps support tomorrow's

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:28 PM
Original message
Liberals need not fear Obama's tax deal: Why a payroll tax holiday actually helps support tomorrow's
Edited on Mon Dec-13-10 10:48 PM by ProSense

Liberals need not fear Obama's tax deal: Why a payroll tax holiday actually helps support tomorrow's retirees

By Marshall Auerback and L. Randall Wray

The commentary in the aftermath of President Obama’s announced tax deal with the GOP has been both predictable and, for the most part, misconceived. Leaving aside the issues of income inequality (which we discussed in a previous post), the more predominant critique (especially from the “deficit dove Left”) focuses on the proposed temporary payroll tax cut and the adverse implications that such a cut implies for budget deficits and for Social Security’s longer term “solvency”. Payroll tax cuts are seen by many as part of a bigger plot by Republicans to destroy Social Security's finances or permanently fund it with general revenues rather than allowing the payroll tax to be re-imposed at the end of the tax “holiday”. One staffer in Congress expressed the concern that funding Social Security with general revenues was part of a bigger plan to destroy it by converting Social Security into a welfare program, rather than an earned benefit.

<...>

The truth of the matter is that payroll taxes do not fund the program. Social Security was constructed this way to buttress its political legitimacy against widespread charges of “socialism” in the 1930s, but the reality is that the federal government has been (since the inception of the program and well before) the sole issuer of our currency, and the dollar, which is nothing more than the government’s IOU, is always accepted in payment as such. Government actually spends by crediting bank deposits (and simultaneously crediting the reserves of those banks). For more on this see here.

<...>

And that is why we do not fear a payroll tax holiday—we need to further loosen the fiscal stance. And once Americans get used to that holiday we certainly do hope that they will insist on making it permanent. Goodbye and good riddance to the payroll tax—a poorly designed tax by any measure. Why discourage hiring and employment by imposing a “tax wedge” (as supply-siders call it), increasing the cost of hiring a worker and reducing take-home pay? Further, the tax is regressive—lower rates for those at the top. For the vast majority of Americans, the payroll tax takes far more income than the federal income tax. And why should only wage earners “share the burden” of supporting retirees? Remember, the purpose of the tax is to reduce consumption by income earners, to leave more goods and services for retirees. If that is the case, why exempt the rentier class (that lives on interest, rent, and profits) from this burden? Especially as the wage share has fallen substantially (and is projected to continue to fall for decades—which accounts for much of the future Social Security “shortfall” that intergenerational warriors are so concerned about). If we need to reduce consumption of income earners to leave more for retirees, then we should tax all forms of income.

<...>

So let us have a permanent payroll tax holiday, but meanwhile we need to strengthen our social compact—not by legislating future benefit cuts (which reduce the willingness of today’s workers to join the compact) but rather by legislating more generous retirements!

There's a new twist in the debate.




Edited length.
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Ozymanithrax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Very well reasoned argument...
but you will not find tons of love for posting it.

Thanks.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. It's an excellent piece
Well worth reading and pondering. Thanks.

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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
2. I believe you need to reduce the length of your post...
In order not to violate the copyright, your posted material needs to be no more than 4 paragraphs, plus the link, which you did provide.

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. You are right. Thanks. n/t
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. Keep the faith Proey. nt
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Jakes Progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
5. Twist indeed.
Did you read the whole thing? Do you think that republicans will do as the authors suggest and begin taxing all income? Do you think that is something that is likely to happen? Do you think that the republicans are not going to use the added deficit to argue for cutting social security?

It is all well and find for a couple of guys to conjecture about how things ought to be, but here in the real world, the republicans aren't going to let things be as they ought to be. They got exactly what they wanted with this compromise and they will parlay it into an attack on SS. And given the recent behavior of the administration, I have to ask you if you believe that our president will not allow a diminishment of our SS rights? Do you believe that he will never allow congress or the republicans to cut benefits, raise age limits, or in any other way further hack away at SS?

The reality is that we got a bad deal which will be played for an even worse deal tomorrow.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
6. seriously?
in which universe will underfunding of social security not result in reduction of benefits?

The current program, despite the wishful thinking of the authors, is in fact funded by the FICA payroll tax, and (or so we are told) revenue from FICA plus accumulated treasury obligations from the surplus will not be able to meet benefits around 30 years out.

In some other universe the government of the people of this republic would be looking for ways to increase benefits and to abolish the regressive payroll tax as a means of funding a universal pension plan, in this universe this government is seeking to avoid paying out those obligations to pensioners while plundering the treasury for the benefit of billionaires.

So yes, in this alternate universe, the payroll tax holiday, a gem of a republicant baited trap, is nothing to be concerned about. Just not in this universe.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. This is funding it with the general account, not just cutting it out period.
The internal rate of return for the " high" earners, not even rich by our new $250,000 standards, is a negative number. In so much as these funds could be invested for their retirement instead of their having to foot most of the bill in contrast to those we say are the true rich, this is a good deal.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #9
19. but that is not this reality
the OP is posturing that this is realistic, it isn't.
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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
8. It just won't stimulate the economy at all
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Here
<...>

Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody's Analytics, acknowledged the tax cut deal wouldn't be the most effective remedy for the economy.

"Are there more effective ways of creating jobs than this program? Yes," Faucher said. "Are those enactable? I don't know."

To what degree the tax cut package would benefit the economy remains to be seen. As David Leonhardt noted in the New York Times, economists expect the legislation would reduce the unemployment rate--currently 9.8 percent--by up to a full percentage point over the coming year. A new report from Moody's Analytics forecasts that the tax plan would cut unemployment to 8.7 percent during 2011, predicting that without the legislation, the rate would be 9.8 percent.

<...>

link


Krugman: The deal will, without question, give the economy a short-term boost.

Yeah, he still doesn't like the deal, but there is no denying that it will have a positive short-term impact.


Still, hope you read the piece in the OP, excellent points.

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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. That's one opinion, not shared by all.
Edited on Mon Dec-13-10 11:39 PM by Milo_Bloom
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/09/will-a-payroll-tax-cut-stimulate-the-economy.html?cid=6a00d83451b33869e2013486d36e5c970c

This is a highly technical analysis which concludes no stimulitive effect form the payroll tax cut holiday.

I read the OP. A "rah rah" non-realistic view of the world.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. That's the funny thing about opinions
they differ.

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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Unfortunately, the facts through history suggest which is correct.
As tax cuts have not had a stimulative effect on the economy.

It is the most inefficient way for the government to "spend money".

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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #14
20. and it is classic reaganomics bullshit
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. Reaganomics?
Please explain how the article in the OP represents Reaganomics?

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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. The idea of cutting taxes to stimulate economic growth
is Reaganomics, as it is understood by the masses.

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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. I reread the piece and it is saying that a payroll tax holiday increases the supply of labor.
Edited on Mon Dec-13-10 11:57 PM by dkf
There are some nice comments below where someone explains the oddities of this assumption.

Also the assertion is that the efficacy depends on the policies effect on demand.
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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Debt.
The problem often identified is DEBT. The idea that people will use the extra to pay down existing debt rather than increase demand.

Without increased demand, you have no stimulus.

This is a problem inherent in small stimulus like tax cuts... it doesn't change spending habits.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. At some point though people will start real spending again.
And they can't do much of that til they fix up their own balance sheets. Personally I am spending a lot more than when the crash was taking place. Shopping at Amazon has been addictive.
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whosinpower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-10 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
15. By this reasoning.....
There is absolutely no reason to pay any taxes at all - ever.

See how long your dollar will last then. Kumbaya.
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Safetykitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 12:57 AM
Response to Original message
17. The new way forward! Tax Holiday Frees Retirees!
Edited on Tue Dec-14-10 01:04 AM by Safetykitten
Healthcare For Some Means Healthcare For ALL!

Wealth Through Trickledown!

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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
21. I'm going to stop paying my credit card bill. By Washington reasoning,
I should have more money in my pocket and the card will be paid off faster.
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whosinpower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-14-10 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. +1trillion! nt
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