If John Kerry never asked Barack Obama to be his Keynote speaker would Obama be President today?

[mtnsnake]

Remember, Barack Obama was considered one of the rising stars of the Democratic Party at the time. Then he got asked by Kerry to deliver his Keynote Address at the Democratic Convention, and he blew us all away. Almost immediately following that speech, Obama went from rising star to superstar.

What if John Kerry had never asked him to make that speech that night? Would Barack Obama be President right now? What do you think?

[ProSense]

1. Feeling nostalgic? n/t

[mtnsnake]

2. I'm in one of those "just wondering" moods

Why do you ask?

[ProSense]

12. Here's something to wonder:

Would Hillary have run for President had she not been First Lady?

That's the beauty about opportunity, one has to take advantage of it when it comes.

The speech put the spotlight on Barack Obama, and he was able shine in that spotlight.

[mtnsnake]

19. Subject for another thread

but to answer your question, no, there's no way she would have. Being First Lady was her springboard into politics, obviously.

[northoftheborder]

3. He would probably be Vice President, with Hillary Clinton President.

[karynnj]

6. Maybe, though I doubt it without the speech

Hillary does not seem a risk taker. As the first woman nominee, she would not have been likely to add the first black at the same time. Without the speech, Obama himself would very likely not have run. He was very young and there would be future chances. So, not having run, he would not have been the obvious choice. I suspect that Hillary might have picked Evan Bayh.

[karynnj]

4. Probably not - but John Kerry did - and Obama did an excellent job

It was a good action on Kerry's part and Obama's speech rewarded Kerry's trust in giving it to him. Kerry was right to see his promise.

It is completely unlikely without that platform that he would have been an obvious choice as the ABC - anybody but Clinton. It is not clear there would have been one - and Clinton could be President or McCain could be President, though this was a very likely Democratic year. (In an article on Kerry, it was mentioned that he had a photo on his Senate wall of Obama at his inauguration that said that without him (Kerry), he wouldn't be here. - could be Kerry's work as an advocate, but more likely that speech.)

[mtnsnake]

7. Yeah, he did and he did and we were all blown away. n/t

[wisteria]

17. I agree. n/t

[nmbluesky]

5. if it's true..

because my mom never heard of Obama.. either me...When I saw his name "Obama"... honest with you.. I thought He was a muslim.. because of his name..
Anyway.. We watched 2004 DNC... Obama's speech and he blow us out.. my mom check on the internet who is Obama.. She told me that He would be president some day.. she will vote him..
She did and we did.. Obama did win!!!

[mtnsnake]

14. Very honest post. In lots of ways, I was affected very similarly

because my mom never heard of Obama.. either me...When I saw his name "Obama"... honest with you.. I thought He was a muslim.. because of his name..
Anyway.. We watched 2004 DNC... Obama's speech and he blow us out.. my mom check on the internet who is Obama.. She told me that He would be president some day.. she will vote him..
She did and we did.. Obama did win!!!

I knew he wasn't a Muslim, but mostly all I had known about him was that he was the rising star of the Democratic Party. I couldn't wait to hear him speak that night at Kerry's convention after hearing so much hype about him. I was blown away by his speech and how he delivered it. Just like your mom, I turned to my wife and said, "This guy is going to be our president someday."

[GoCubsGo]

48. I thought the same thing, too.

Only not this soon. As for him being elected "now', probably not. But, I believe that he would eventually would have.

[abelenkpe]

8. No.nt

[cherokeeprogressive]

9. My guess is no. n/t

[doc03]

10. no n/t

[BeyondGeography]

11. Obama is a great political talent, and that would have been clear by 2007-8 regardless

The only person even close was Hillary, who was sunk with many D's by her vote for IWR. The keynote speech was huge for Obama, but the anti-Iraq war speech he gave was even bigger. It gave a lot of us who were looking for an alternative a place to land that made sense. If he had given the keynote and failed to come out firmly against the war, he shouldn't even have bothered running.

[mtnsnake]

15. Great points, but do you think he would have made it in 08 without the Keynote speech in 04?

While most of the real political junkies were very aware of him, lots of other of us didn't know a ton about him before the Keynote Address.

[BeyondGeography]

16. I do

Pure conjecture, of course, but if it wasn't the 2004 convention, it would have been somewhere else. There is no greater stage than the party convention keynote, but he still had the stage presence and the material and that speech would have gone viral even if given in a lesser venue, IMO.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. Most people didn't know Obama even in 2007. Not even most blacks.

It had nothing to do with a keynote speech given in 2004. This thread is ridiculous!

[rury]

52. I first saw him when he delivered that remarkable

Address in 2004. I saw all the promise then, seeing it manifested now!
He probably would not be president now without it.
Thank you John Kerry!

[Peregrine Took]

13. He was given the baton by key figures in the Illinois senate and bigwigs

in the eastern wing of the DNC with DLC leanings. Jones, Durbin, Kerry, Kennedy. He didn't earn it he was awarded it.

[jaysunb]

18. No, he would not

I was there that night and it was crystal clear what his future was.

I had met him a few months earlier at a fundraiser for his Senate campaign and I thought he had great promise as a leader but could not have imagined the power of the Boston speech and how it would propel him to the White House. I don't think anyone could have.

btw, he was on the first "DEANS DOZEN" list, so his potential was apparent then.

Thank you John Kerry. :)

[mtnsnake]

20. You are lucky.

The air must have been electric all night long. I can't imagine how exciting that would have been to be there in person.

[jaysunb]

22. I've had many "moments" in my

65 + years, but it would be hard to describe which may have been more powerful.

Being born black in rural Mississippi during the height of the Jim Crow era, having participated in civil (and uncivil) acts during the 60's, one can only imagine how I felt. Sitting next to me were two older white ladies from Georgia, who were also in tears and very aware that we were seeing the first African American POTUS. :)

[ZombieHorde]

21. Senator Obama's speech was really good, but Sharpton's speech was better...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SBFREiCkf8

Watch it, and see for yourself.

[mtnsnake]

26. I'm a HUGE fan of Sharpton. He is often spot on, he makes me feel good & best of all

he makes me laugh my ass off sometimes, he can be so funny. I love his passion and I love the way he goes after Repukes.

[Exilednight]

23. No,

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. What the hell??!?!? Black man can't make it on his own, huh?

There's no evidence to the contrary. The primaries are over!!

[ZombieHorde]

27. Oh, so a black man can make it on his own, but a black women can not?

What is that all about?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. I'm a black woman and can answer that. Yes, indeed she can!

I'm just sick of all this speculation about Obama's chances at winning. I've seen countless threads like this, insinuating that Obama could not have been an excellent candidate, running a good campaign and winning on his own merit. Yes, the economic conditions may have aided in his win. Yes, Hillary started to mismanage her campaign as well as McCain. Yes, people were tired of Bush. And yes, the thought of Palin frightened off many voters who would have otherwise voted for McCain.

But apart from all of that, Barack Obama ran a near perfect campaign. He won on his own merit, not because some other person "helped" him along.

That is very, very insulting!

[ZombieHorde]

32. I actually don't think anyone gets to where they are on their own.

I was trying to point out the OP was not about race.

I agree Barack Obama was an excellent candidate, but he needed help to become a US Senator, and he needed help to become a US President. He received help in the form of donations, he received help when people went door to door for him, and he received help when he was given a chance to give that speech.

Then there is his upbringing and education. Infrastructure, language, rhetoric, politics, refrigeration, medicine, all these things, made by others, has helped him. We actually do very little for ourselves. We are not nearly as independent as we like to think.

edit: wrong "their," so embarrassing!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

37. I obviously don't mean that he did it all on his own. He needed votes and support.

He had mentors. And maybe it wasn't fair for me to inject race into this. But there have been a number of threads that subtly invoke a form of paternalism when it comes to blacks and their achievement. Perhaps I jumped to conclusions and didn't mean any charge of racism. At the same time, I tire of these kinds of threads and the discussion about Obama's "luck" rather than skill and management. I understand that conditions were in place that benefited Obama irrespective of his own doing. I understand that there were those working behind the scenes to make things happen, most importantly the voters--black, white and green--who voted for him. And I understand that it took a coalition of whites, blacks, browns and everything in between to elect him. But since his election, there have been these kinds of speculative discussions, dismissing his achievements and refusing to extend to him the credit that is due.

[ZombieHorde]

41. That does sound frustrating. The context you offered makes your original reply more understandable

to me.

refusing to extend to him the credit that is due

Now that you mention this, I have noticed it too. Some pro-President Obama policy threads will contain posts which bring up unrelated policy to bring him down.

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. Not yet. But see my response above. I'm tired of threads like this.

Barack Obama won fair and square. On his OWN merit!

[mtnsnake]

33. Whats your problem? Most of us think Obama was destined to be President

after hearing him speak. The question was, Would he be President in 2008 or not. Take a look at the wording, please, before you go off on another tantrum. The key words are "today" in the thread title and "right now" in the body of the post. And nobody said Obama won because someone helped him along during his campaign, as you mentioned in your previous post.

Barack Obama won fair and square. On his OWN merit!

Of course he won fair and square and on his OWN merit. He ran a great campaign. Jeesh.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

38. "Most of us?" Not around these parts. See my response upthread.

I apologize for my knee-jerk response.

[mtnsnake]

40. No problem, and thanks

I read your other post upthread, and I'm glad you see that race didn't enter into it one bit.

:toast: :hi:

[Dawgs]

55. Wow!! You're really reaching.

As a white man I can say that his speech moved me like no other that night. I watched it over and over for months.

It wasn't because he was black. It was because he was a liberal Democrat.

And, I don't think he would have won without it.

He may have come close to beating Hillary, but I don't think it would have been nearly enough without the speech.

[karynnj]

56. I don't think anyone is saying that

No one can become President without getting some breaks. Here, the break came because Kerry saw Obama in Illinois and was incredibly impressed. Had he given anyone else that speech, it would almost certainly not led to same explosion - leading to the 2008 campaign that Obama had.

Obama was in an almost uncontested (Keyes?) election in Illinois. Without the visibility, that he made incredible use of, this would not even have been a major story. As it was, he was being actively pushed to run about a year and a half later. Had he not made the speech, he likely would been described as a promising up and coming star in the party. I think he still would have been President, but I would guess that he would have been too cautious to run in 2008 against a prohibitive favorite. (Obama was NOT a huge risk taker - if he were he might have voted for Kerry/Feingold or lent his charisma to pushing to filibuster Alito. Given his age, he had plenty of time.)

[tnvoter]

30. that speech defined Obama to the world

If he had not made that speech, he wouldn't be who he is today. He would probably still be in office somewhere but not the White House.

[mtnsnake]

36. Yes, it really did.

It wasn't just our country who fell in love with him after hearing him. Much of the world did, too. "Defined" is a great word. Thanks for that!

[Orangepeel]

34. Maybe. Kerry chose Obama because he was a "rising star"

The highlighting certainly helped Obama and he owes Kerry thanks for the opportunity. But Obama's perceived status as the future of the party was, at least in part, the reason he was picked to make the speech.

[karynnj]

57. That perception was in its infancy - he was not even the originial frontrunner for the Senate seat

Here is a case where a Chicago fundraiser for Kerry, currently the ambassador to the UK, suggested that Kerry have an event with him in Illinois and raved about how talented he was. Kerry did, was impressed, and Kerry chose him as the key note speaker.

Had Obama been more established and known as a "rising star", there is some chance Kerry would have picked him as VP.

[Bonobo]

35. No. And Obama coming out, as he did, to gospel music during the convention...

it showed me that the Dem powers that be had planned for a long time to set Obama up as "The Candidate(TM)"

[ecstatic]

39. I didn't see the speech

My guess is that most of the people who voted for Obama in 08 did NOT see the speech. Election 2008 was the first time I ever watched a DNC convention.

[mtnsnake]

42. Here you go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0

[TwilightGardener]

65. Looking back at that, I cannot believe how much he's aged in just six years.

He looked like a kid in his 20's on that stage. Amazing.

[ClarkUSA]

43. If Bill Clinton never asked Hillary to be his wife, would she be SoS today?

The answers to both questions are at best speculative guesses.

:shrug:

[mtnsnake]

45. Or

If Bill never married Hillary, would he have become President himself?

:shrug:

[karynnj]

59. Almost certainly not - foreign policy was never the area she was most interested in

Had she not been First Lady, which likely would not have happened had she not married Clinton.

However, she would have married someone who was her intellectual equal and she likely would have gotten involved in either advocacy or government. It is possible that she would have run for Senate on her own. That could have led to a Presidential run.

But, you are right, you can never answer speculative questions.

- Another question could be whether Kerry would have won had he picked Hillary. Polling then, per Shrum, showed she pulled his numbers down among independents, but I would imagine that the foot dragging by the Clinton allies in 2004 would likely not have happened and that wing would have been far more engaged.

[Kaleva]

44. Rec'd. Interesting question.

Obama was given an opportunity to introduce himself to the nation and he made the most of it.

[JamesA1102]

46. If Jack Ryan had never taken Jeri Ryan to sex clubs would Obama be President today? nt

[hulka38]

50. +1

How big of a regret can that be though, really.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

54. Exactly. Obama had a big hill to climb with Ryan.

The seat looked it was going rethug when Ryan imploded.

[Honeycombe8]

47. Probably not. That's where I first saw him & fell in love with him (so to speak).

But that's speculation. It's possible he would've burst on the national scene in some other way. Kerry asked him to speak because he was already known by the "in" political crowd as an up and comer, someone to watch, who would possibly be someone big some day. So who knows? It's all speculation.

I DO think that if his speech at the 2004 convention hadn't been as good as it was, he wouldn't be President.

[TwilightGardener]

64. Your last sentence reminded me of a Bobby Jindal speech that

was supposed to be a similar star-is-born moment but went horribly wrong--really bad delivery. I think it was supposed to be the SOTU response or something...anyway, I agree that had he blown it, he probably would not yet be where he is today.

[hulka38]

49. I think there were at least two more important

events that led to his presidency. One was Jack Ryan pulling out (pardon the pun) of the Senate race in Illinois due to a sex scandal. He would have been tough to beat. Obama's 2002 speech blasting the Bush administration's deception and recklessness leading to the Iraq War put him head and shoulders above the rest of the field of the so-called "serious" candidates.

[Robbins]

51. Actully

It IS myth the sex scandal caused Obama to win the senate race.After the primary In Illinois(which by the way at one point he
was In third place In polls) he was leading jack Ryan In the polls.Jack Ryan's sex scandal after divorce records were unsealed
ended the race.Obama had good chance to beat jack Ryan,His sex scandal caused Republicans to self destruct In Illinois that they
had to bring In Alan Keyes to run for the seat.

Kerry put Obama on the national map when he selected him to be keynote speaker.

[hulka38]

53. It would have been a tough race

if Ryan had stayed in. On the surface Ryan was a good candidate. The race was over when he bowed out. I remember the GOP trying to talk Ditka into running. Obviously, the Kerry campaign couldn't have made a better choice. It was the best thing they did. I wonder if their decision to choose Obama as key note had something to do with giving Obama a boost in a very competitive race.

[WI_DEM]

58. Who cares? he was going to go places anyway

[justiceischeap]

60. No he wouldn't and here's why

The DNC knew they needed new blood and after Pres. Obama's speech, they kept their ears to the ground and listened to the groundswell. They started "courting" him shortly thereafter. He actually wasn't immediately interested because his political career was so young and he'd recently suffered a huge political loss in Illinois and he remembered that.

I saw it all in a documentary. Obama was molded for this position by the DNC. And to the poster above who asked if a black man couldn't do it without help, well no politician can run for President without the backing of many people. Just isn't possible.

[dionysus]

61. you know who'd be president?

Brewer and Shipley!11!

:hi:

[mtnsnake]

62. #!%@X!%%##X@!

:mad:

:hi:

[dionysus]

63. .

:D