PPP: Huckabee top choice of Iowa Republicans for 2012

[WI_DEM]

If Mike Huckabee decides to run for President again in 2012 he'll start out the same place in Iowa where he finished in 2008- first place. Huckabee leads there with 30% to 18% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, 3% for John Thune, and 1% for Mitch Daniels.

The key to Huckabee's success is the ability to unite the disparate ideological factions of the Republican Party. 31% of voters think the party's too liberal and with them Huckabee has a 26-21 lead over Gingrich, with Palin a little surprisingly coming in further back at 16%. 48% are comfortable with where the party is ideologically and they go for Huckabee too, by a 33-23 margin over Romney. Huckabee comes in a close second behind Romney with the small group of voters who think the party's too conservative, 27-23.

In addition to coming out first on the first choice question, Huckabee would also seem to have the most room to grow his support in Iowa. 19% say he's their second choice to 13% for Palin, 12% for Gingrich, and just 9% for Romney.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

[onenote]

1. I'm predicting a Huckabee-Cantor ticket

Or Romney-McDonell.

Cantor is the logical choice for repub veep nominee: he helps the repubs in two major swing states - Virginia (where he benefits from being a "native son") and Florida (where the fact that he is Jewish helps counter Huckabee's fundie reputation).

Cantor could end up being VP nominee even with Romney, but is somewhat less likely since it would leave the repubs with a ticket with a Mormon and a Jew, which may be a problem for some of the conservative Christian voters, particularly in the South. Nonetheless, the repubs may calculate that those states are so anti-Democratic Party and anti-Obama that they can win them even with Romney and Cantor and they still get the benefit of being stronger in Florida and Virginia.

Anyway, its a long way off, but that's my early call.

[Ter]

2. How will the Tea Party be in Republican primaries in 2012?

As strong as in 2010, stronger, or weaker? If stronger, expect Ron Paul to make the ticket.

[trayNTP]

3. Name recognition. Nothing more, nothing less. The GOP nominee will be none of the above.

[Robbins]

4. Your wrong

The GOP always goes for frontrunners.It will be one of gang of 4(Romney,Palin,Huchabee,Gingrich)

If Huchabee wins Iowa and Romney wins NH the winner of South Carolana may decide who the Republican Nominee Is.

If Palin loses Iowa she needs teabaggers to come out In the SC Primary to win the nomination.

[trayNTP]

7. You're wrong. People go for whoever the media darling is. That will be John Thune in 2012.

Ignore all of the 2008 has beens. The media is bored of them, so they will not get nearly as much pub as John Thune, Haley Barbour, and whoever else runs.

The 6'7 Thune will be the "GOP's Obama" in 2012. It's coming. Get ready for it.

The political establishment is: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45697.html

[Yavin4]

5. Huckabee Exists To Dilute Palin's Support

Thus, opening the door for Romney. Huck and hick will split the XTian fundy vote, and pave the way for Romney.

However, if the economy shows significant improvement by the end of the year going into next year, then the Repubs will probably let Huck be the sacrificial lamb.

[bullwinkle428]

6. Just to make sure no one freaks out - Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucus

by nearly 10% over Romney, then was essentially turned into an afterthought within a week or so.