Could Obama see an even bigger increase in popularity after the SOTU? And what it means for 2012...

[Drunken Irishman]

The State of the Union bump certainly isn't an exact science. It's debatable within in the polling community if it even http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/24/state-of-the-union-polling-bump_n_813249.html">exists.

Of course, how you arrive at an opinion depends on the polls you use and the time frame of the data. A Feb. 1st, 2010 article from TPM indicated that, contrary to popular opinion, Pres. Obama did see a spike http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02/obamas-approval-ratings-on-the-rise-after-sotu.php">in his approval.

The Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll is registering its highest level of strong support for President Obama in months. At the same time, the number of poll respondents saying they "strongly disapprove" of the job Obama is doing has dropped to it's lowest level since Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts Jan. 19. According to the pollster, the shift came after Obama's State of the Union address last week.

...

Obama's overall approval is on the rise in Rasmussen's poll as well. For the last three days, Obama's approval rating has hovered around 50%. It had fallen to 44% after Brown was elected. Today's approval/disapproval split was 50/49.

So there did appear to be some type of bump after his speech to the nation. It makes sense, since State of the Union speeches are positive and the other party's rebuttal is generally ignored by most viewers. So, ultimately, the President is allowed two or so hours of uninterrupted campaigning on his end across every major network.

Since Pres. Obama enters the speech tonight already seeing a surge of support - http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/24/cnn-poll-obama-approval-up-to-55-but-still-under-50-on-economy/">CNN puts his approval at 55% - it's possible he can build on that even more.

Do I expect 60% by this time next month? No - but the climate is just right where what could have been a temporary bounce, now turns into something more sustainable.

If Obama's approval pushes up into the mid-50s universally by February, he'll be in pretty good standing entering what should be a year defined not just by the economy - but by presidential politics.

I know Nov. 2012 is still almost two years away, but the general foundation for that campaign begins this year. Candidates will have a better idea if Pres. Obama is beatable and thus campaign accordingly.

Of course, there are exceptions. In 1991, at this point, Pres. Bush had an approval rating of almost 80%. He was just entering the SOTU with a massive majority behind him due to the Gulf War. That approval began to erode in months and by that time next year, he had dipped below 50% - where he would remain until after the 1992 election loss to Clinton, where he saw a final bump on the eve of leaving office.

There were reasons that led to Bush's quick decline in approval:

1. The war didn't last all that long. Once it ended, people returned focus to domestic issues.

2. Even before the war, the economy had become a major issue for voters and, in fact, that January of 1991, 50% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy. That proved to be the best marks he would get on the economy the remainder of his presidency. Not good.

3. The economy worsened and Bush went back on his 1988 campaign promise of not raising taxes, which set off a firestorm among his own party and a good number of voters who backed him '88 against Dukakis. In fact, then Gov. Clinton used Bush's "No New Taxes" speech against him in that campaign and it was effective.

Similarly, his son saw a spike in approval after 9/11 and the initial stages of the Iraq War, but the handling of that war and the worsening economy at home, his approval went from 90% in Sept. of 2001, to below 50% by late 2004. Luckily (meh) for Bush, he was able to 'win' reelection.

Clinton's presidency, on the other hand, is almost opposite of the two Bushes. He struggled early in his presidency to find any sustainable approval and generally hovered around 45% throughout most of his first two years. It wasn't until 1995, two full years into his presidency, that Clinton finally began to find some footing and throughout both years, for the most part, his approval would hardly dip into danger zone.

That changed the landscape of the political environment. In 1994, most Republicans were convinced they would not only win the White House back, but do so in convincing fashion. It led to a great deal of speculation about whether or not the party's heavy hitters would ultimately make a run at the White House.

In the end, from January to December of 1995, only once did Clinton's approval ever dip down into the negative and that was in late-http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx">February. Outside of that, he was either positive or broke even for the remainder of 1995.

With those developments, the Republican field shrank considerably when the bigger candidates realized it was unlikely Clinton would lose.

The most prominent names, like George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Tommy Thompson all declined to run. That left a fairly thin field of candidates and Bob Dole was the de facto nominee due to his seniority and the fact every other Republican candidate was far too unpolished, too far from the mainstream, or both. Seriously, look at the Republican Primary field that year:

Lamar Alexander
Steve Forbes
Pat Buchanan
Alan Keyes
Phil Gramm

Not one to inspire hopes for the party to win back the White House.

Dole was the sacrificial lamb and the Republicans focused more on 2000 - which, in the end, worked.

So what does this all mean for Pres. Obama? Nothing. Every president sees a different approval trend.

But you start to get an idea if a candidate is going to be a shoe-in for reelection or whether or not he's on his way to defeat by year three.

In 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval steadily improved throughout the year. By January, 1984, he was above 50% - this after entering 1983 below 40%. He would go on to win reelection in a landslide.

In 1991, George Bush started with soaring approval ratings and pushed them even higher until mid-to-late 1991. By that point, his approval ratings consistently shrank and in January, 1992, he entered the campaign season not only facing a viable primary challenge from Pat Buchanan, but an approval rating below 50%. It would later dip down to around 40% and remain there for most of the campaign, leading to his lopsided loss to Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton started 1995 with an approval rating of +2 and by the end of January of 1996, was +10 and above 50%. He would consistently rate 50% or greater for all of 1996, even pushing toward 60% prior to the election. Interestingly, though, Clinton failed to win a majority of votes in that election, even though he held a majority approval for most of that year.

The only candidate to buck the trend recently was George W. Bush. His approval dipped after 9/11, regrouped in March of 2003 (due to the Iraq War), steadily declined for the remainder of the year and saw a temporary uptick when Saddam was captured. The trend seemingly dictated a loss in that next election. He had gone from 60% approval in January 2003 to 50% approval in January of 2004. A ten-point drop isn't too alarming over a one-year span, but you also have to remember a few things:

Bush's approval was still fairly high even before the Iraq War. It was down considerably from his 90% reached in Sept. 2001, however, 60% is still a pretty solid number for any president two years into his presidency. That approval was bumped up to about 70% in March of that year due to the initial success of the Iraq War and the 'rally around the flag...' we normally see in times of crisis.

So really, Pres. Bush's highest approval was 70% - 10-points off his father's high around the same time - and within a year, it was down to 50%. Ultimately a 20-point drop in only a few months. 50% entering an election year is not bad - but the hemorrhaging he saw in support should have indicated he was in a very precarious situation.

In the end, Bush's approval rating hovered around 50% throughout most of 2004. So even then, you can see where his path diverges from that of Carter and his father's and more toward Reagan & Clinton.

Bush was able to bottom out in the high 40s, which is never ideal for a candidate seeking reelection, but it's not entirely bad. Unlike Carter and his father, he polled far better in that election year than either. Both candidates struggled at pushing their numbers into the high 40s and in fact, both, at times, slipped closer to 30% than they ever did 50%.

In 2004, Bush's lowest approval rating was 46% and that was in May of that year.

While Bush certainly didn't follow the same path as Reagan and Clinton, in the end, his way to reelection wasn't much different. He was able to sustain a fairly decent level of approval throughout most of 2003 and 2004 and it was enough to make that election competitive.

Now you can debate why that is, but in hindsight, his approval strengths, even if weaker than both Reagan & Clinton, indicates at least why he was able to position himself for reelection.

Knowing what we know now, this year is going to give us a good indication of where Pres. Obama stands in his reelection attempt.

Higher approval (the latter part of 1983 for Reagan, most of 1995 for Clinton) probably means he's well on his way toward reelection. If, in December, his approval rating is still 55%, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't win reelection. A lot can happen, though, and certainly if the new optimism toward the economy isn't met with results, those numbers will drop. However, if the economy is rebounding, it's hard not to see an easy reelection campaign for President Obama.

If things continue to slumber along, I have no doubt Pres. Obama's approval ratings will return to average numbers. He spent most of 2010 in average territory and if there is any indication the economy is slowing down or not growing as fast as we expected, especially if unemployment doesn't begin to show some signs of weakening, I expect his numbers to return to the mid-40s range. That would put him on better footing than either losing incumbents (Carter, Bush), but would indicate a far closer race than any of us hope.

If that happens, there will certainly be a bigger push from the Republicans to nominate a candidate who they see as not only ideal to their ideology, but acceptable to independent voters. In fact, the Republican Primary could turn out very similar to the Democratic Primary in 2004 - where more moderate party voters are concerned about electability and throw their support behind a more mainstream candidate in an effort to continue the Anybody But Obama (remember ABB) mantra.

The worst case scenario, which I think is least likely, is that Pres. Obama's presidency somehow comes under major crisis and his approval not only drops into the low-40s, but it consistently slumps into the 30s - which dogged both Carter and Bush throughout their election years.

If that happens, it's unlikely Pres. Obama can do enough to keep his job.

As of right now, though, I think my first scenario is the most likely. Pres. Obama has some things going for him that neither Carter or Bush had when they were seeking reelection. The most important is that the American people genuinely like Obama. They want him to succeed and that likability factor will make up any ground lost on the job handling side.

It won't be enough to overcome a bad economy and other major issues - but it will help and it's something no Republican can counter.

So 2011 should give us an idea of what to expect in 2012. Pres. Obama is sitting pretty - but as George H.W. Bush proved, a lot can change in one short year.

[Skip Intro]

1. He will see an increase in approval. I have no doubt he'll win in '12 if he runs.

Not sure on the prospects for Dem presence in the House and Senate...

[Kahuna]

2. Let me put it this way, I predict there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth

on the left WHEN it happens.