PPP: Obama still strong in Virginia

[WI_DEM]

Obama strong in Virginia

Virginia seems like a state Republicans almost have to win next year if they want to take back the White House but if the voting was today Barack Obama would take it again by a margin comparable to or greater than what he won in 2008.

Obama leads Mitt Romney by 6 points in the state at 48-42. That's identical to the size of his victory over John McCain in 2008. After that his leads increase to 8 points over Mike Huckabee at 51-43, 12 over Newt Gingrich at 51-39, and a whooping 19 over Sarah Palin at 54-35.

Part of the reason Obama's doing well in Virginia is that he has respectable, if not great, approval numbers there. 48% like the job he's doing to 45% who disapprove. There are two keys to his solid standing. The first is that 87% of Democrats stand with him- that's an indication he's generally holding onto white voters within his party, even ones who might lean a little bit more to the conservative side of the ideological spectrum.

The other key to his standing is that he's coming close to breaking even with independents- 48% disapprove of him to 42% who approve. It may seem counter intuitive that negative numbers with those voters are a good sign for Obama, but after two straight election years where independents in Virginia leaned toward the GOP by a margin of about 30 points a Democratic politician getting just slightly negative reviews from them is progress.


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Radical Activist]

1. Good to know that the base still supports Obama.

[ClarkUSA]

4. They always have, despite much caterwauling to the contrary.

Polls have always shown approximately the same percentage of Democrats as in the PPP poll mentioned in the OP approving of President Obama since he was inaugurated.

The ones who disapprove of President Obama are really a tiny percentage of total Democrats and even half of those are conservaDems who think he's too liberal, according to Gallup. That should tell us something about those who think "Obama = Bush". :eyes:

[WI_DEM]

2. I'm surprised that Romney does best vs. Obama in VA

I thought a southerner like Huck would, but I guess that is just another indication that VA is moving away from being a traditional southern state.

[onenote]

7. Virginia hasn't been a "traditional" southern state for a long time

I'm not even sure exactly what a "traditional" southern state is, but I'm pretty sure its not one that elected an African-American as governor 21 years ago (making it the first state, southern, northern, eastern or western to elect an African American governor). Or one that has elected five Democrats (Wilder, Chuck Robb, Gerald Baliles, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine) as governor in the past 29 year, that has had at least one Democrat in the Senate for 16 of the past 22 years and currently has two Democrats serving.

Funny thing is that even some Virginians don't seem to recognize that their own state doesn't fit the perceived stereotype of a "traditional" southern state when it comes to statewide elections.

[Arkana]

3. Virginia's a decent bellwether for how a lot of the "new" blue states

will do.

We may not get Indiana and North Carolina again, but I think we can win everything else.

[ClarkUSA]

6. I think we may get NC again, if OFA's GOTV is as good as last time.

It will depend on how wretched the Republican field is, of course, but so far, so good.

[ClarkUSA]

5. So Obama has lost Matt Damon and Hugh Hefner but he's keeping Virginia blue for 2012?

Hmmm... I'll take that. :D