If the GOP Primaries Were Held Today, Who Do You Think They'd Nominate?

[OmahaBlueDog]

For the first time in over a year, I don't think it'll be Palin. Maybe that's just me. It looks like they're waking up to the fact that she can't go three weeks without putting her foot in her mouth.

My theory this week is that it will be Mike Huckabee, with Gov. Christie of NJ as his would-be VP.

On edit: If you selected "none of the above", I'd be intrigued to hear your selection.

[golfguru]

1. I still think no clear winner emerges

and they will draft Christy at the convention.
Palin and Huckabee neutralize each other, and so do Gingrich & Romney.
There too many candidates and many with similar followings.

[customerserviceguy]

6. I picked Romney

but you make some good points. It is indeed possible that no one comes to the convention with a clear majority. Palin will always be able to raise money and votes from the tea partiers, and Romney has a great supply of cash, he didn't blow it all on 2008.

It would be good strategy for him to secretly bankroll Hucksterbee, there really can't be more than 60% fundies in the Rethuglican party base, and if both Huck and Caribou Barbie get about 25-30% apiece, that leaves Romney with a plurality of delegates, even if it's not 50% plus one.

The interesting thing about the Repuke nomination process this time around is that it finally abandons winner-take-all, and you have a reasonable chance that 3-5 candidates will show up at the convention with 15% or more of the delegates, and almost any two of them could combine to form a ticket. I can see Romney trying to offer the VP slot to Huck in order to put together a team that would possibly win support from the fundies who hate Romney.

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. With the proportional delegate awarding you may be right

Once the curiosity wears off, I'm not sure how an open convention picking someone that nobody voted for is going to fly.

I think it really comes doen to Palin, Huckabee, and Romney. Pence is sharpening his game for 2016; Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, and Pawlenty are all auditioning for Veep (especially Gingrich, who would be a handler for Sarah Palin, a la Dick Cheney). Romney is likely doomed because he will have trouble credibly opposing HCR, having himself been the architect of a similar plan. Huckabee needs to convince Palin's supporters that he's a more viable candidate. Trump, who no one is yet taking seriously, bears watching. Many Republicans and GOP leaning indies love the "if only a businessman were in charge" approach. Trump will try to present himself like a Ross Perot, but a Perot who is working within the system.

[pscot]

2. A Gingrich Bachmann ticket

would win an Emmy for best new comedy.

[FSogol]

3. Tim Pawently/ Bob McDonnell

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. I jst don't see a lot of voters getting excited about Pawlenty.

Maybe if he's in full campaign mode, he'll seem different.

If recent history is an example, the Iowa caucuses will go for Palin or Huckabee. The conservatives in Iowa went nuts over same sex marriage being ruled constitutional, and are replacing their supreme court as fast as they can.

[SheilaT]

4. The essential thing is that they are not being held today.

We have not yet begun to see what the campaigning and jockeying for votes/delegates will be.

[Ikonoklast]

5. The Next Loser.

Matters not who gets the Republican nod, might as well be Mr. Generic.

[Mimosa]

9. Romney because he's a 'blank'

He can be 'filled in' with any content. He hasn't done anything outrageous (except for animal torture?). He is Reagan without the actor baggage. And the actor baggage never hurt Reagan did it?

[davidpdx]

10. One thing to take into consideration is many states are considering moving or canceling primaries

In the case it is canceled, it would mean there would be a caucus instead. That would take quite a bit of hardcore organizational skills and getting people motivated to go to the caucus.

I'm thinking that (and this is going way out on a limb) that the nomination process maybe very long one for the Republicans. If Iowa and NH go first, then everyone else goes on or after March 1st then the nominee might not be known until June.

[rasputin1952]

11. While all of these are players to different extents, I think the GOP nominee...

will be someone in the wings. Palin, Gingrich, and Jeb bush have far too much baggage, (a 3rd bush in the WH is almost beyond belief, even for the GOP).

Romeny can't pull in the Southern Block, Huckabee is tied w/RW religious groups, ( I think thye've lost a lot of power)...Trump?

We've a ways to go...and that leaves the field wide open. With that said...and with what can or will be done in the future that could easily change the field, (think what happened in WI, a large number of citizens across the nation are motivated to crush the GOP), some relatively non-diescript goomer will emerge, and most likely come out of the fray a sacrifical lamb.

As with all elections...getting out the D and left leaning I's is vital to delivering an extremely serious blow to the GOP. We could have wiped them out in the mid-term, but voters across the nation sat it out. As always, it comes down to the numbers.

[Keith Bee]

12. I have the "One size fits All" answer:

A fucking idiot.