by Arjun Jaikumar
Buyer's remorse is setting in quickly, according to Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.
GQR polled 50 House districts currently held by Republicans which are expected to be major Democratic targets in 2012. The results indicate that the Republican House majority is already endangered, less than three months into Speaker John Boehner's regime.
From GQR's
polling memo:
The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting). In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.
These incumbents, identified by name, have an average approval rating of 35 percent across the 50 districts, with 25 percent disapproving. Another 38 percent were not able to give the candidates a rating, suggesting lack of visibility. This is about 10 points lower than the approval rating Democratic incumbents held in July of 2009 (with comparable disapproval rating).
More importantly at this early point, just 40 percent of voters in these districts say that they will vote to reelect their incumbent (asked by name in each district), while 45 percent say that they "can’t vote to reelect" the incumbent.
This leads to a congressional race that is dead-even in the battleground. After winning these seats by a collective 14 points in 2010, these Republicans now lead generic Democratic challengers by just 2 points, 44 to 46 percent, and stand well below the critical 50 percent mark. The race is dead even in the top tier of the 25 most competitive seats—46 percent for the Democrats versus 45 percent for the Republicans. In the next 25 seats, the Republicans have a slight 42 to 47 percent advantage.
You can find a list of the 50 districts polled
here. House junkies will recognize most of the usual suspects there - IL-13 and IL-16 are probably the biggest surprises.
moreTPM:
Buyer's Remorse: Polls Show 3 New GOP Gov's Losing In Do Overs Last year's midterms elections swept incumbents from office nationwide, as voters turned to newcomers -- often Republican newcomers -- for change.
But just months after election day, three new Midwestern governors -- Wisconsin's Scott Walker (R), Ohio's John Kasich (R), and Michigan's Rick Snyder (R) -- have seen their approval ratings fall to the point that polls show them losing hypothetical do-over elections with the candidates they beat last year.
In Wisconsin, Gov. Walker promised to make tough decisions on state spending, and beat Democrat Tom Barret 52% to 46% on election day. But when PPP polled the state in late February, they found that Walker would
lose a do-over election by a seven-point margin.
<...>
Steve Benen:
REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS GET TO WORK, LOSE SUPPORT.... <...>
That's what happens when a governor folks thought was a moderate starts pushing
a radical agenda.
But the larger point here is that all of these governors are running into the same mainstream opposition.
In Ohio, Gov. John Kasich (R) has
seen his support plummet in recent months, a trend bolstered by
a new Quinnipiac poll, released this morning, that showed his approval rating down to just 30%.
In Pennsylvania, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) -- the one who's desperate to make
brutal cuts to education, while increasing spending on prisons -- hasn't exactly impressed his constituents, either. Last week, a statewide poll found
only 31% of Pennsylvanians had a positive impression of his job performance.
<...>
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