Pew poll has Obama looking good for 2012

[center rising]

New pew poll out has Obama with a healthy lead over a Republican challenger, although the Republican is not named in the survey. Obama has 50% of the vote, the Republican 35%, and the rest are undecided.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/23/poll-obama-in-good-shape-reelection_n_839593.html

[Toucano]

1. In March 1979, Carter led Reagan 52 - 38.

I think we know how that ended up.

[CakeGrrl]

2. Are you concerned for the President's chances, or hoping he'll go the way of Carter? n/t

[Toucano]

3. I'm contributing a fact that provides context to the Pew poll in the OP. n/t

[CakeGrrl]

5. Oh, that's what we're playing? Fact: He's ahead of Clinton at a comparative point.

We all know how that re-election bid turned out.

[Toucano]

7. Thanks for playing. Care to guess the name of the game?

It's called "Polls 20 months before an election are not meaningful" AKA "Don't book your inauguration tickets just yet."

In some places they call it "Keep your shirt on, Mister!"

:hi:

[CakeGrrl]

8. Well, I guess you're hoping to hear the sound of another voice come Inauguration Day

since you can barely stand the President's.

:hi:

[Toucano]

9. Now, don't you worry about me! I'll just tune him out.

I've learned to ignore Republican talking points quite well.

It's very kind of you to be so concerned for me, though.

[Bake]

28. Personally, I'd like to hear a DEMOCRAT'S voice on Inauguration Day.

Bake

[BklnDem75]

30. You missed Obama in 2009?

It was historic!

[bowens43]

12. would it make a difference?

After the last couple of years do you really think it matters?

[Drunken Irishman]

4. In March of 2003, Bush led Democrats...

Barack Obama currently fares as well against a generic opponent in the upcoming presidential election as George W. Bush did in April 2003, a time when Bush’s job approval rating was much higher than Obama’s is today. He also tests considerably better than Bill Clinton did in March 1995.

Is it necessary to be such a wet blanket?

Sure, Carter may have led Reagan in 1979 (poll to back that up?), but he also had an approval rating of only 43% - more Americans disapproved of him than Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[CakeGrrl]

6. Well, considering the tone of this thread (at least while it's still around):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x729522

I guess the answer to your question is 'yes'.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=729522&mesg_id=729939

[BklnDem75]

13. Might have something to do with being primaried

Yeah... the PL thought they were geniuses back then, too.

[karynnj]

15. Obama is getting higher numbers against conservative Republicans

Your point is well taken, things can change and change quickly - or as in 1980, just with a steady momentum. My guess is that Republicans are working for the same thing - weakening Obama and hoping for a candidate who can win a significant part of the middle by appealing to them more than his policies were. (In a way, it was brilliant that they used an actor - Reagan knew the image that had to be projected.)

I doubt anyone polled Bush in March 2003, right as he went to war, but his approval ratings were sky high. The difference in the way the media rallied behind his invasion and the way they are attacking on all sides Obama's action is stunning. The Boehner letter is telling, graphically, it is as if Boehner is claiming the entire rectangle where all actions could be plotted as "his" and leaving Obama JUST the point that represents exactly what he did. If accepted, if Gadaffi is not removed, it is Obama's fault AND it is Obama's fault for acting at all. Not to mention, if Gadaffi falls and any government replaces him, Obama will be wrong if it is not perfect - but even if a Reagan clone raised as a Libyan led the government, they will find fault. Unlike Iraq, which is, in their eyes, a functioning democracy. (Either the government would consider its population's needs over ours or they would call him just another US autocratic puppet - either way, plenty to criticize.)

[Arkana]

23. Reagan had help from Ted Kennedy, if you'll recall.

[bowens43]

11. Obama hasn't looked good since he was elected............

nt

[FrenchieCat]

20. To some, even before he was elected, he didn't look good

and for them, he will never look good.....
cause they'll always see him as far away from
the fantasy that they had of him as the Messiah,
that they claimed others believed him to be....

[mikekohr]

27. Before he was elected, and after he was elected he looked good to the majority

of Americans. That's the facts, inconvienent as they may be to some. President Obama will win re-election with 52-56% of the vote in 2012.

[Vinca]

14. Not a surprise. Look at the GOP roster. They might as well run Bozo the Clown.

[Godhumor]

17. Except he is that good against generic republicans--the highest polling option, usually

He is in very good shape for 2012.

[Arkana]

25. All the Republicans have to do is run that Generic Republican guy

and Obama's toast, though.

I'm serious.

[JoePhilly]

16. There is a reason that not one Republican has announced yet.

And this poll exposes the reason.

[shellgame26]

22. That's right

I'm recalling that ass-shining he gave a bunch of them at that republican retreat a couple years back.

[JoePhilly]

26. Yup ... take any GOP candidate, and look at their past statements ...

on almost any topic.

Each of them has turned 180 degrees on one or more major topics.

They have ZERO ideas.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Wow. He crushes Repubs with Hispanics, by 50 points? Let's be honest,

Repubs have a 9 pt advantage with white folks (no surprise there). As much as the professionals on the left & right have been trying to scare the over 65's about Social Security & Medicare, he even wins that demo, and even has an edge with Independents again.

We just have to accept that there's an element on the left, that stubborn 10%-13% for whom this president will never measure up, but his numbers remain consistently high with self identified "liberals". The rest are either pulling for Kucinich or Ron Paul's crazy ass, :rofl: and they're just much louder than the rest of us.

[Arkana]

24. ONLY a 9 point advantage with white people?

That's gotta be the smallest margin they've ever had. If Obama only loses the white vote by like 9 or 10 percent he'll be reelected in a landslide, considering how high his minority support will most likely be.

I say all this, of course, assuming nothing drastic happens.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Yup. McCain beat Obama with white voters by a 12-point margin...

55-43.

Obama won the Hispanic vote 67-31.

[robcon]

19. I think it will be an easy re-election.

1. Better approval among independents than he did in 2008.
2. His latest moves to the 'center' (remember how welfare reform in 1996 clinched the re-election for Clinton?)
3. The unexciting bunch of Repug candidates (which of them has any stature whatsoever?)


I think Obama will win by a larger margin that he did in 2008.

[Godhumor]

21. Hate to take anything for granted, especially at this time, but I think it is telling that the major

"Up and Coming" Republican players look to be waiting till 2016.

[Awsi Dooger]

31. That's illogical

Nothing sets up as well for us in 2012 as 2008. Bush was an easy target, after 3+ years of approval ratings in the low 30s to low 40s.

In 2012 Obama will have to defend and overcome very high unemployment and very high energy prices, a devastating combo. For one thing, Bush left office when gas prices were extremely low by recent standards, primarily due to the economy tanking. It's will be misleading as hell but I guarantee you'll see simplistic GOP commercials and talking heads emphasizing what gas prices were in January 2009 compared to whatever they are in 2012.

The electoral college is a minefield. Obama can't win North Carolina or Indiana again unless he matches or exceeds his national popular vote margin from 2008, which is extremely unlikely. Florida's unemployment rate is roughly 3% higher than the national average, and Obama isn't particularly strong in Florida to begin with. I emphasized throughout 2008 that Obama could win Florida but next year I think it's gone. New Hampshire is a schizo state that seems to be leaning right again. You can never count on Virginia or Ohio, nor Colorado or Nevada.

I never discount the advantages of incumbency, particularly with the party in power only one term. But I simply don't have a good feel about 2012. Let me emphasize I think ANYONE elected in 2008 would have faced a troubled term and been in jeopardy toward 2012. But I think a more feisty personality fit the time frame better, and would have received more benefit of a doubt. Obama is more like the cool college professor. I hope it's enough. But that's another undependable demographic that no doubt won't be as friendly as 2008, the youth vote.

[Keith Bee]

32. Polls are less than worthless.....

...except for the one on 11-06-12