The Die Isn’t Cast (Cook on the 2012 senate elections)

[FBaggins]

It’s hard to imagine a situation much worse than the one that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray and Executive Director Guy Cecil will face in the 2012 elections. The numbers are pretty ominous—23 Democratic seats at risk against only 10 for Republicans. The Democratic seats in this class were last up in 2006, a year when the party had the political equivalent of a 70 mph tailwind. The 10 Republicans who won that year were a hardy breed, elected in the face of a strong headwind.

Given last November’s six-seat loss for Democrats, which left them with a 53-47 advantage (independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut caucus with the Democrats), their hold on the majority looks extremely precarious heading into 2012. In truth, the party’s losses would have been worse had it not been for the aggressive effort waged by the DSCC under the stewardship of then-Executive Director J.B. Poersch.

As grisly as the “macro” picture appears for Senate Democrats, it’s premature to extend that view to individual seats. In this business, surprises always seem to be just around the corner. One need look no further than last year’s election returns to see some examples of where, despite a horrific political environment, Democratic senators managed to hold on to seats that looked like goners.

...snip...

To be sure, Democrats face enormous challenges in 2012 and 2014, and it’s pretty unlikely that their Senate majority will survive. The party will undoubtedly lose a lot of races over the next two elections, but as last year’s experience shows, tenacious candidates and perfectly executed campaigns, with an assist from unexpectedly weak GOP candidates, provide opportunities that are not obvious this early in the cycle.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/10578

[karynnj]

1. But, there is a real possibility of getting the House back

Here's a link to a Democratic survey of 50 House seats that were polled. Many of the freshman Republicans are around 35 percent approval. IF the republicans have a weak candidate, they could easily lose in the higher turnout Presidential year race.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/151403-poll-house-majority-is-up-for-grabs-in-2012

I think it is far too early to say that the Senate will be lost. Remember Delaware was a near sure Republican pick up.

[FBaggins]

2. It'll be a coat-tails election in the House

A number of those freshmen are weak (not that a whopping 2-3 months into the terms says much). If the President wins comfortably, a great many of them will swing back our way.

If the presidential election is close or the Republican wins, few of those seats will be in much danger.

On edit - this guesstimate ignores the impact of redistricting... which could be quite substantial on a number of these seats.

[karynnj]

3. Redistricting - good point - that will hurt

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. That is assuming that those Republicans have to run in their districts as they are currently drawn

Which of course is not going to happen due to redistricting. GOP gains on the state level mean that they will have more control of redistricting since the 1920's.