The 2012 Race Could Be a Cakewalk
by BooMan
Fri Apr 15th, 2011 at 11:25:12 AM EST
William Galston, the issues director of Walter Mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign, takes a look at President Obama's reelection prospects and finds that he's vulnerable to a "credible" Republican challenger. Given the economy, I don't think this is news, but
the question is whether the Republicans can produce a credible challenger. Galston acknowledges the possibility that the GOP won't field a credible candidate but he doesn't really examine the likelihood.
If the Republicans nominate someone who’s seen by the people as a plausible potential president, they’re going to be in the game unless the economy surges as it did in 1984. But they have two opportunities to commit creedal suicide: They could nominate someone too far outside the mainstream to compete effectively, as they did in 1964, or their primary electorate could force more mainstream aspirants to adopt positions that would cripple their general election chances.
I think we've already seen evidence that the Republicans are adopting positions that will cripple their general election chances. The first indicator is coming from the governor's mansions in Madison, Lansing, Harrisburg, Tallahassee, Augusta, Phoenix, and Columbus. The new batch of Republican governors are collectively overreaching in a big way and causing a major backlash. Usually, you would see it as advantageous to own the governorships in swing states, but I don't think that will be the case in 2012.
Another indicator in the willingness of Congressional Republicans to get behind Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan which was easily eviscerated by the president in his budget speech on Wednesday. It would be one thing if the GOP could actually enact these reforms and take credit for tackling our long-term budget concerns, but they won't have the benefit of accomplishing anything remotely like what they have proposed. Instead, nearly every member of their caucuses has cast a vote in favor of destroying Medicare and slashing taxes on millionaires and billionaires. None of their presidential aspirants came out against Ryan's plan and it is unlikely that any of them will.
more...
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2011/4/15/112512/735