A prediction -- Donald ("f'ing") Trump will run as an independent

[Armstead]

I realize this may end up wrong. But I think he is going to run as a third-party, or independent, candidate for President.

Reasons:

1) In his unhinged press conference when Obama released his birth certificate, Trump said (slightly paraphrased) "I think everyone will be surprised -- very surprised -- by what I will announce." He did not say simply, "I'll be announcing my plans" as he probably would if thinking of seeking the GOP nomination because that would not be "surprising" at this point. So I thiunk there's a clue in that.

2)Trump is delusional, but he is also smart enough to recognize that it is very unlikely he would get the backing of the GOP establishment. The distaste they have for him is clear in Rove's statements and other indicators.

3)Trump is delusional, but he is also smart enough to realize that he would ultimately be a longshot against Obama, either as a Republican or independent. His delusions of grandeur make him think he has a chance of an upset, but whatever is left of rationality in his mind recognizes that reality.

As an independent, he can run, and bask in the attention -- but also protect his massive ego. As the GOP candidate with the backing of that party, he would become branded as a big-time loser if he failed to win. But as an Independent, he can claim victory regardless of the outcome (as he did with the birth certificate thing) because he would not be expected to win on that basis.

"I won!" he can claim as he gets his 1-to 15 percent of the total in a three-way race. "This is a clear victory for me. I entered this race to make sure the important issues are addressed by the Democratic and Republican candidates. And I forced them to talk about the issues. So I saved democracy by elevating the tone of the campaigns. And I single-handedly improved the quality of our political system. It is all because of me."

And he's also delusional enough to think he can actually set a precident and actually win as an independent.

That's my hunch.

And if he does do this, I believe it will greatly increase Obama's chances of re-election, by dividing the right wing and siphoning off a hefty chunk of the votes and support of the nuttier GOP wingnut fringe -- and possibly some of their business supporters too.

Again this is just speculation. But in light of the likely impact of that, I say -- "Trump for President on the Ego Party Ticket! Go Donald Go! Run, you wild and crazy guy."

[Jack Rabbit]

1. Well, I hope he does

Trump and the GOP will split the stoopid vote.

[Telly Savalas]

4. The flip side is that his candidacy would boost the stupid-to-rational ratio of political discourse

The root cause of most of our nation's problems is the unacceptable level of tolerance for bullshit in our society. Trumps candidacy may help in the short term, but in the long run it's just another log in that fire.

[Armstead]

9. I'm not sure there much more room for downward movement in that

Trump is beginning to make Sarah Palin seem almost statesmanlike by comparison.

[emulatorloo]

2. Or maybe he is a stealth democrat and his plan is your plan.

The F-Bomb thing today was seriously bizarre. In what way would that politically help him?

I seriously don't get the guy, this is one of the strangest spectacles I have ever seen.

[Armstead]

8. I think he's basically a "bull in the china shop" with narcisstic personality disorder

He'll say and do anything for attention, and he will always convince himself that he is in the right, no matter how stupid or crazy his actions are.

[emulatorloo]

12. that is a pretty good assessment.

I have to admit that I've watched the Apprentice/Celebrity Apprentice for years. Part of the fun of it was to watch Trump's gigantic ego, extreme narcissism, attention-whoring and self-aggrandizement in action.

Well it is not very funny now.

[TheBigotBasher]

3. Not sure why this unrecced into negative

I just recced anyway. It seems right to have a discussion about Trump. Personally I think he played the race card to get attention for his show and that use of racism (and research from racist PUMA blogs) has severely backfired on him.

Expect another bankruptcy and maybe even a new wife to get him the publicity he is more used to handling

#DumpTrump

[Telly Savalas]

5. I don't get it either

Trump's a tool, but the OP had a lot of good thoughts on the subject.

[emulatorloo]

13. undercover operatives may not want it discussed

and don't want it on the greatest page for sure.

[Armstead]

21. Naw...I think some people here just don't like me

[bbinacan]

6. He won't run. n/t

[TheBigotBasher]

7. This may explain his candidacy

[ReggieVeggie]

10. I don't think he's going to run

as Obama said, he's a carnival barker and he's barking real good...that's all

[Armstead]

11. Maybe not...but you never knowcwith The Donald

Normal rules do not apply.

[ProSense]

14. Why would anyone want this racist asshole to be the focus of 2012?

"I won!" he can claim as he gets his 1-to 15 percent of the total in a three-way race. "This is a clear victory for me. I entered this race to make sure the important issues are addressed by the Democratic and Republican candidates. And I forced them to talk about the issues. So I saved democracy by elevating the tone of the campaigns. And I single-handedly improved the quality of our political system. It is all because of me."

And he's also delusional enough to think he can actually set a precident and actually win as an independent.

An advertiser pulled support from his show and people are calling for NBC to drop him. So the best thing for him to do is run?

Are you envisioning boycotts as a major 2012 campaign issue?

The GOP field is already a circus. There doesn't need to be a freak show added to the mix.

If he decides to run, will his supporters acknowledge they're supporting a racist?

Of course, it's too much to ask of the media to focus on the issues.

[Armstead]

20. If he splits the conservative vote between the nutty fringe and the awful GOP mainstream...

then I'm all in favor of him running.

I didn't say Trump makes any sense in the rational world. But politics are already surreal these days.

[ProSense]

22. If?

What if he splits the Democratic vote?

Are you 100 percent confident that stupid is a RW trait?

What's more likely to happen if Trump runs is it will give the media an excuse to do exactly what they've been doing. Every idiotic theory would be hyped. Republicans would, as they tried to do in recent days, pretend to take the high road, and the media would applaud them for it.

[Armstead]

24. I don;t know if there are any books that teach one how to develop...

an appreciation of irony, or a sense of humor. But I'd recommend you look for it.

You always take everything so literally and seriously, even when meant in jest or semi-jest or with a sense of ironic understatement.

As for the Dean supporter liking Trump...Well sure there's going to be some morons in any group. But I honestly am not very worried that very many people who would vote for Obama would be swayed by Trump in significant numbers when compared to the number of teaparty types who would.

[ProSense]

26. Hmmm?

"But I honestly am not very worried that very many people who would vote for Obama would be swayed by Trump in significant numbers when compared to the number of teaparty types who would."

You do think the RW has cornered the market on stupid. Maybe it's a reaction to past support for Trump and all the Paul 2012 and Johnson 2012 idiocy popping up everywhere.

"an appreciation of irony, or a sense of humor"

When it comes to stupid, sometimes it's not funny.

I mean, the media is writing BS about Paul Ryan and people are taking it as gospel.

Poll: Buzzsaw of townhall dissent over Medicare/Medicaid not a liberal plot

One doesn't have to believe the hype, but believing that others are buying into it simply based on media spin is equally disturbing.

Is it really that hard to tell the difference between fact and spin?

[Marsala]

15. I still don't quite believe that he will release his financial records

If he does that, he's in it for the long haul.

[ZombieHorde]

16. I would laugh if he tried to run as a Dem and primary President Obama. nt

[JoePhilly]

32. Would be interesting given his only support is with right wing racists.

[ZombieHorde]

41. I know. I would have to go visit FR and see the fireworks. nt

[tsm]

17. Donald Trumps Violent Torpedo of Truth Tour

[Armstead]

19. Maybe Charlie Sheen could run as his VP

[66 dmhlt]

18. From your lips to God's ears

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. That would be fun!

Loonies galore! Bachman, Palin and Trump!

[Imajika]

25. Dropping F bombs and tossing out MFers...

..will not be very appealing to the Republican primary voting base. He wouldn't have come close to winning the GOP nomination either way, but this pretty much ends any slim chance he had.

I think we are seeing the end of Trump. Your right, he may go indie, but I am not sure that many right of center voters would cast a ballot for him now and Trump probably wouldn't have much effect on the race anymore.

It's a shame really, the longer we can associate him with the Republican party the better.

[mmonk]

27. Well I would certainly have no problem with that.

The crazies would be so confused as to the way to go.

[jeanpalmer]

28. It's not impossible to win as an Independent

Ross Perot almost did it in '92. In fact, he had the thing won until he imploded over the story about the Bush Republicans sabotaging his daughter's wedding.

All it takes is someone high profile (Perot was high profile, so is Trump), someone perceived as a successful businessman (both Perot and Trump), someone with the "right" issues (Perot had deficit spending, the budget, running the government like a business, NAFTA; Trump has NAFTA and other trade deals, big budget deficits, high oil prices, high unemployment and outsourcing, and the war in Afghanistan), and someone with money. All those issues are going to play in Trump's favor. No other candidate is on the right side of these issues.

The things holding Trump back now are he hasn't yet put together a team that can sell him and his ideas have to be refined.

But if gas prices keep going up, unemployment is still high, the war is still going on, trade deals haven't been re-negotiated, and the budget deficit is still $trillion + and nothing will have been done about it (and nothing will be done), don't underestimate Trump.

[Armstead]

29. IMO Trump makes Perot seem like the soul of reason by comparison

I wouldn't underestimate any independent candidate. Bloomberg could pose a formkidable challenge (unless it snows a lot before election day).

Perot was personally rather odd (and later turned out to be a little bit more than that), but he was intelligent and sincere, and was better on issues like NAFTA and trade than Clinton.

Trump is kind of smart, but he has also degenerated into batshit crazy. And rather than being motivated by issues, he seems like he'll say anything for attention and the love of the freepers he has targeted as his "market."

IMO he'll attract a certain element of the right wing fringe and members of the idiocracy. But I also think he'll go too far for most people -- and he has more than a few skeletons in his closet.

[jeanpalmer]

30. He has identified the major issues

but hasn't learned how to present them. He's too erratic in his language. I laughed when I read his threat to put a 25% tax on the Chinese, but calling them MFers won't sell. He hasn't yet learned the importance of developing a message and staying on it. If he could do that, he could be a real challenge. The numbers show that. But so far he hasn't done it. And it may be asking too much of him to do it.

Perot was organized on the issues, and appealed to the average person. But Trump also has a certain appeal and imo a better set of issues. The question is: can he get organized, get serious and cut out all the amateur juvenile bullshit. I kinda doubt he can. But on name recognition alone, he has the potential to beat any of the dull Republicans he'll be facing if he decides to run.

[Armstead]

35. What I'd like to see is the Democrats actually take on the issue of trade

Trump is crazy and hypocritical with his MFing threats against China, and his claims that he could single-handedly bully the Saudis and OPEC into lowering oil prices.

However, I do think that reactionary populists like him and Perot and even Pat Buchanan are hitting on a nugget of truth in terms of how Corporate America has CONvinced the country into backing so-called "free trade" policies in which we have sold out our economy by abandoning any form of protectionism and embracing the creation of a global jungle...We did allow corporations and money men to sell us out to China by shipping jobs and factories there and letting ourselves be put into a position where they can now blackmail us.

Americans accurately realize in their gut that the American economy has been ransacked (although they often mistake who is doing the ransacking), which is one reason they respond to Dolts like Donald.

What I would REALLY like to see is the Democrats stop kissing the collective butts of Wall St. and Corporate oligarchs and right-wing economists, and instead put protection of the economy into a Progressive populist framework of policies that actually do protect the domestic economy and workers while also engaging with the world on a "fair trade" basis that lifts all boats rather than pushing us on a race to the bottom.

"The fault dear Brutus, lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

[DCBob]

31. Trump could also pull some moderate independents away from Obama..

Those who are angry about the economy but aren't social conservatives. But, yes its probably a net positive for Obama.

[joshcryer]

33. Please, let this happen. Yahoo! comment threads are all trump all the time.

Those people love him and they're the epitome of teabagger!

[olegramps]

34. I hope he runs and spends lots and lots of his money. Be great for the economy.

It would be the most patriotic thing that he has ever done.

[Rowdyboy]

36. I hope you're right but I really doubt he has the balls....

[jillan]

37. This is my fantasy. The teabaggers LOVE Trump. The somewhat normal repugs will vote

will vote for Mittens or Pawlenty or what ever loser they choose.
The teabaggers will vote for Trump.

Obama wins easily!

[Gormy Cuss]

38. two words: Meg Whitman

Self centered, uber-wealthy candidate for governor of CA last election. She spent over 175 million of her own money and ultimately destroyed her candidacy with her own mouth and past mistreatment of employees. She's still a billionaire.

[blue_onyx]

39. I doubt he runs

I could see a third party candidate run if Romney was to get the Republican nomination but it won't be Trump. It would probably be Palin.

[karynnj]

40. This sounds believable to me

Trump is that egotistical and delusional. I also think that Trump in as an independent might most hurt two of the more viable, among a weak group of potential nominees. I wonder if the same people wanting to believe that Obama is a Kenyan born Muslim socialist might not be ok with Romney and Huntsman being Mormans - and one having been in Massachusetts and the other in the Obama administration). (In fact, my conjecture is that the more palatable to the middle independents the nominee is, the greater the part of the base that could go with Trump.

It might also be that an independent Trump run would be a face saver to the Republican establishment if they already thing that Obama will beat anyone they put up. The blame would then not be on their ideology or nominee, but the fact that Trump split the vote. I don't think the Republican establishment wants him to run.