Did someone miscalculate Deans influence to liberals in America?

[uponit7771]

I think so, there should be a sit down with the guy now...lets see if the adults in the DNC will prevail...


Your thoughts?


TIA

[NYCGirl]

1. Well, here at DU. I'm not sure about the rest of America. And even that is a

surprise. Back when I was a big Deaniac, we were being called all sorts of names here. And told we were crazy and didn't realize he was just a centrist.

[uponit7771]

3. I was a Deaniac before I was an ObamaBot, love Obama but Deans been VERY consistant while Obama is..

..new to the scene.

It's like I can trust the car that's always started.....

Miscalculating Deans influence was stupid...

[NYCGirl]

4. Yes, Dean has that luxury, because he's now a private citizen. NT

[uponit7771]

7. Unnn, In the beginning Bush was VERY VERY consistant with his campaign rhetoric then when

...things got tough he had to grow up

[NYCGirl]

13. Campaigning is always different from governing. I'm not sure what Bush did

after 9/11 could be called "grown up." (Or his incompetence before.)

I'm not sure I understood your reference.

[uponit7771]

16. Bush's base REALLY crashed when Bush went left of Hugo Chavez during the bank crisis

...and before then some of the die hards didn't like the spending but it was for the military so they were tempered.

But before then Bush was REALLY keen on keeping his campaign promises so in reference to Dean being a private citizen I believe you can keep to your campaign form and still keep your base like Bush did.

[JNelson6563]

34. But he hasn't changed.

He spoke as he does now, even when he was a candidate. And some of the programs he initiated as Governor have proven to be very effective.

Dean speaks plainly in any capacity.

Julie

[Nite Owl]

5. He is a centrist

but not how it is used now. He is where the center used to be, they went and moved it so far to the right that what they now call moderate or centrist is the old Repuplican party!
Dean speaks the truth, that's enough for me. The present administration doesn't like that at all, they figure they can use us, we have nowhere else to go anyway.I think they will be surprised.

[uponit7771]

8. Yeap, Deans been consistant and his influence is big...they should give the guy an ear

[dave29]

26. Thank you for making this point.

It should be it's own OP.

I remember -- having been a Deaniac myself. We were harassed constantly because he was a "DLCer" and too far to the right.

Funny.

[Number23]

36. It's so odd the way things change around here, isn't it?? Almost with the wind...

I'm a big fan of both Dean and Obama.

[ShortnFiery]

2. I believe that this Administration has become so arrogant, they won't talk with

any "stinkin' liberal." Rahm has kept Obama so damn isolated he's starting to delude himself into believing that they are AS invincible AS BushCo.

They may be all that ... because what are we "little people" going to do about it as they are figuratively twisting arms in the Senate and the House.

This will be one WINDFALL PROFIT of the large insurance industry gifted from the taxpayers. Nothing more, nothing less.

[uponit7771]

6. I've heard he's hard to reach now but don't think in the end the insurance industry will like the ..

...regulations on recession, delay etc.

That'll kill some of the revenues no doubt

[saltpoint]

9. In 2004 Dean ran an innovative, energized, and damned impressive

campaign in Iowa and placed third behind Kerry and Edwards.

He did finish ahead of the hapless Dick Gephardt, who quit the race before 11:00 Central Time.

Dean is now the It Boy of the national media -- the same media who played his "scream" from 2004 over and over and over and over with the express intention of casting him as unstable. Now he's real useful to those same media hacks who were kicking him when he was down in 2004 because they now wish to kick the President.

As for the numbers, I don't know what Dean himself is thinking, but if he wants to challenge Obama he will need more support than he's shown he can muster to date.

[uponit7771]

11. I don't think Dean needs to be a jugarnaught just be able to throw in reasonable doubt...

[saltpoint]

14. True, but there are distinct constituencies inside any political party

who, once their endorsement is assured, translate to critical mass in primary elections.

Ted Kennedy thought he had garnered sufficient support in 1980 to take on a president the Left was grumbling out loud about.

He was wrong.

Dean is in a precarious position. At the moment his media presence suggests him as a primary challenger to Obama, whether the discussion has been held or not, or even whether he's asked about this or not, but I definitely don't see critical mass in Dean's case.

[madfloridian]

23. Don't worry your noggin.

Dean won't run in 2012. He said this morning he would vote for Obama.

[saltpoint]

28. HI, madfloridian. Well that ought to put the lid on a few steampots.

I thought Dean's 50-strategy was outstanding, and I'm more enthusiastic about it now than I was in 2008 and I loved it then.

I'd like to see an even more intense full-court press with some very hard-hitting ads to go along with it.

[karynnj]

21. I think he might have run the best campaign he could have

but, face to face in Iowa, he could not win over enough caucus goers. He ended up with 18% to Kerry's 38%. He had more party support (Gore/Harken and at that point more superdelegates), more money, and more positive media coverage than Kerry, for whom the balk of the coverage before NH was speculation on whether he would dropout before Iowa, after Iowa or after NH.

I suspect that in 2003, the media was intrigued by the story of the internet affecting politics and Dean was King in the left blogospere. They clearly overestimated the impact given votes cast. I would assume that if Dean could not win in 2004 with all the advantages he had and where there was no incumbent, there is no way that he could win in 2012.

Obama will have more money, more party support, and the power and pageantry the Presidency brings. Unless you can argue that Dean 2012 will be a far better candidate than he was in 2004, you would need to argue that Obama 2012 would be substantially weaker than Kerry, without incumbency, money advantage, media advantage or party support advantage was. (Given that Deaniacs have called Kerry a weak candidate or worse this seems a major conflict.)

[saltpoint]

22. Have to agree. I excuse Howard Dean totally for his "scream," which

as I heard it that night sounded like an entirely stable and vibrant soul encouraging his saddened volunteers. Shame on the media for their complicit debasements.

I do recall the premature obits on John Kerry's Iowa campaign. By god he turned a few heads on that caucus, didn't he?

Dean has a celebrity now that he likely would not enjoy were he not an available once-defeated presidential aspirant and a physician as well. I agree with you, karynnj, that it will be very difficult for Dean to translate whatever momentum he has now into a viable, persuasive rationale to unseat Barack Obama.

[kenfrequed]

25. The scream

It was an out of context conservative DLC media hit job.

[karynnj]

27. Not really

Consider what it replaced on TV that night and the following day - and ask yourself if it benefited the DLC.

The coverage would have been on why John Kerry won, why Edwards did better than expected, Gepardt leaving, and why Dean completely underperformed expectations. If the DLC were out to "get" Dean, they had to do absolutely nothing. The real beneficiary was the Republicans.

Kerry would have been helped by more coverage of his face to face meetings in Iowa and the reunion with the guy he saved in Vietnam. (He got a fair amount of coverage, but the more of this would have helped.) In addition, they might have covered how he came back from being written off and from cancer treatments - and he did it on his own with help from his vets and firefighters who knew he had been there for him.

Dean only got 18% of the vote and he was already losing people to Clark, Kerry and undecided in NH before Iowa. Kerry getting momentum from Iowa in NH was extremely likely, as was Dean losing people who had gone with him when he was leading. Having a few days where the media took every misstep to explain the loss would have hurt as much as the scream.

[Cha]

30. Thanks for bringing in the history of Dean and the "media",

saltpoint. I was crushed by what the media did to Dean in 2004 as metaphorically as they crushed him.

Dean has America's interests at heart and he's a team player..he said on the Ed show tonight(heard it from a DUer) that he will support and campaign for Obama in 2012.

[saltpoint]

32. Hi, Cha. I am finally getting around to catching up on the various

Dean angles this week, and thanks for sending me that update.

The media in 2004 were already at a very low point. And sad to say, they have only gotten worse.

[Cha]

35. It's propaganda central and imo

some of the left bloggers are doing their share on the internet. They didn't have to when the bush coup was going but the facts don't seem good enough for them now.

[Armstead]

10. self delete

[uponit7771]

12. You're talking about the Bush admin "adults" not the Obama admin "adults"...VERY VERY different IMHO

[saltpoint]

17. Wait -- you're saying there were adults in the Bush administration?

I had no idea.

You mean to tell me that Don Rumsfeld is an ADULT? I'd have to see some documentation on that.

[uponit7771]

18. Well....they were old enough to drive? Does that count ? no?.......figures ....... :-)

[saltpoint]

19. LOL.

[Armstead]

20. I self-deleted this because I may have misinterpreted your OP

However, my deleted reply was based on a reaction to the use of the word "adult" as a characterizati0on that is frequently used to say we should defer to the power elites.

If that was not the context you were using it, I apologize.

[SIMPLYB1980]

15. LOL!

:popcorn:

[NorthCarolina]

24. The DMC holds no real power in the Democratic Party. The DLC calls the shots. (nt)

[polichick]

29. Dean isn't influencing liberals - he's just voicing on air what we've been saying privately. nt

[dkf]

31. I think Dean sees the art of the possible very differently from Obama.

Obama doesn't want to rock any boats. Dean thinks it is worth it. If Dean were President you bet your SOCKS he would be insisting on a stronger bill, and he would definitely use reconciliation to get it through.

Dean is just frustrated that he has done everything he can to get Obama a majority and Obama can't figure out how to use it. Hell I'm frustrated too.

[saltpoint]

33. Dean may be in a position, although it remains to be seen, to bring

pressure to bear on the insiders to make legislation more progressive.

Again, this remains to be seen.

IMO Dean's influence on liberals is limited. The record he has after offering his candidacy in an effective campaign brought modest dividends.

He had more buzz than Kerry and Edwards in 2004 in Iowa and more cash, and they still whipped him -- Edwards by just less than twice as much and Kerry by more than twice as much. Four years later Iowa Democrats chose Obama in an extremely historic caucus vote.

Other liberals would appear to have more influence on events than Howard Dean, not least the liberals already in the Congress and the liberals who serve as county chairs of their local and regional Democratic organizations.

No sit-down is needed, as other DU posters have indicated, because Dean has just this week endorsed President Obama's re-election.