Dean was extra-persuasive on Morning Joe... hard to challenge

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

We've reached a point where both sides of the argument can offer lines that seem decisive... until you hear the other side's lines again.

One one side, no matter how screwed up the bill is it will provide subsidized insurance for some have-nots, somewhere, someday. It is hard to argue against that, particularly since so much money has been shoveled to haves lately. (That said, those who argue heatedly and hyperbolically that bill opponents "don't care about 150,000 dead" are, of course, the lowest sort and deserving of nothing but dismissal.)

On the other side, watching Dean's performance today I couldn't rebut his points... at least not with sincere enthusiasm.

He argued that this legislation will be the foundation of healthcare in America going forward--that any subsequent moves will be built upon this bill--and that the nature of that foundation is not being determined by any actual policy analysis, but rather by the whims of a few and the desperation of the many to get some bill passed for political reasons.

I find this argument persuasive because I respect the organic nature of policy and reform--in the way one respects gravity or a grizzly bear--and am big on the sensitivity of complex dynamic systems to initial conditions. Tiny differences in initial conditions manifest themselves as surprisingly big phenomena. (The proverbial beating butterfly wing in China that causes a storm halfway around the world is an instance of the power and unpredictability of small differences in initial conditions.)

This bill will, in fact, shape everything going forward for our whole lives even if we somehow (unlikely) had the votes and will to "fix" it in the near future. It will not completely determine everything that happens but it's influence will always be there. We cannot fully predict how initial conditions play out but it seems likely to me that starting with a good bill is less exploding-cigar prone than starting with a chaotic expediency that accepts, as a starting condition, that all expansions of US healthcare availability and coverage going forward should be built on the framework of for-profit insurance.

And at this point even most supporters here probably agree that the Senate is not striving for the best bill or even a sensible bill. Little thought is being given to the world beyond the next election cycle, or even the next news cycle.

So I remain torn.

[flamingdem]

1. Plus we have to think beyond health care to be truly organic...

and that means deciphering whether passing the bill helps or hinders the election of democrats.

We don't want to throw out the baby..

[SemiCharmedQuark]

2. I'm torn as well, but I tend to lean towards what Dean says.

[niceypoo]

3. Dean has a pair

Unlike Obama

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. Well articulated

I am saddened by this situation, but I am not torn. I accept the core argument Dean makes as overarching in its importance. Literally and figuratively, one can not build a sound structure upon a poor foundation, and this bill as currently written is fundamentally a reaffirmation of the core integrity of a private insurance based system of health care coverage in America, HAVING RULED OUT PUBLIC ALTERNATIVES TO IT.

Stepping further back to make an argument suggested at by Dean but not articulated by him, this battle over health reform and what role the private and public sectors can and should have in it has broader implications that extend well beyond the issue of heath care in America. It is the great national debate on the role of government in society, and if the forces of those who do not put near full faith in the private sector are routed in this battle, that too has strong initial conditions ramifications for the balance of power in America for a generation to come.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Good point (about establishing the role of government)

[Armstead]

11. Yes it is based on big philosophical stakes

It was saddening to hear so many Democrats worrying that a mild public option would be bad if it were administered by the government.

[Armstead]

6. That is the crux of this -- This sets the direction for everything to follow

This is not, as some say, better than nothing.

Something mild that would be better than nothing would be a combination of focused regulations to control the worst excess of insurers and a limited, relatively straightforward expansion of Medicaid and Medicare eligibility and/or subsidies to heklp gthe uninsured.

Not the real solution, but at least a band-aid and a base that could be built on.

Howevevr this bill puts in place a convoluted package of concessions to the private insurabnce system that it will do more harm than good ultimately because it goes in the wrong direction. It locks us into the system of "what the market will bear" pirate insurance, and makes them even more powerful by forcing people to become their victims, er, customers.

I made this point in a more verbose way here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x67196

[grantcart]

7. If your torn then this is the tie breaker

If this bill goes down then the left will never be underestimated or taken for granted the rest of the Obama Presidency.


As a strong, obnoxiously loyal fan of the President, I hope it goes down it won't ruin his Presidency, it will make him a better President.


He told us that he wasn't always going to be right and sometimes we would disagree.

[dave29]

8. This is just about where I find myself

I am also very torn at this point.

[Armstead]

9. It's actually simple

Go back, do what the easiest to get done and most popular to stem the bleeding now, and take the time to get the harder stuff right.

Don't start by imposing mandates for private insurance, because that embeds the bad system we already have even deeper.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. Thank you

You simply stated a point I have been struggling to attempt to make in numerous prior postings. This battle sets the tone for all to follow, and it will determine how seriously this Administration henceforth takes the agenda of the Democratic Party center left, let alone the solid left.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. I think it would kill him -- politically.

He's not a very good politician, at least outside the context of a programmed campaign. Dude is looking boring and superior... just the kind of fellow people love to see fall when they are in a bad mood.

Bill Clinton could engage and re-engage the public with his love/hate mythological trickster flawed-guy-you-identify-with thing. (Even Nixon fascinated because he was an ongoing complex human-drama, hence the many second-acts.)

But I fear that if the Obama balloon bursts he would just come off like a professor who lost the sheet with the answers.

As you have probably sensed, my current analysis is that if we do not lose both houses of Congress Obama is in real danger in 2012. Not great options.

Principle-wise I am with you 100%.

(And, as a frequent critic I don't have the same ethical latitude you do. I have to restrain any desire to pile on the wounded president too much, hence I may err toward caution on this matter.)

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. I think Obama has some good political instincts as well as some bad ones

I am less pessimistic than you over his chances to rebound, he is young and gaining experiences that he never had the chance to learn from before at an expodential growth rate. In the past Obama has shown strong traces of self effacing humor, and he pleased many with refreshing candor about not being perfect and always needing to learn from your mistakes.

Plus I believe there still is time, one way or another, to implement some positive changes in our health care system during this Congress which can still serve him well, even if he gets somewhat chastened by having to make a mid course correction. Americans know he is a relatively young President. If we can see him learn and grow on the job, it can serve him well.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. Good points, but this electorate is different IMO

I know people who make six figures who have scraped off their Obama stickers and ask wistfully, in seriousness, why the cities are not burning yet. "Why isn't there a revolution? What are people waiting for?"

And these are people of and in the system.
The exposure of the American Dream as a shell game is more potentially destabilizing than anything I've seen. Worse than Watergate and Vietnam.

Probably the only thing keeping the lid on is that everyone is too depressed. No revolution of rising expectations. (Like a former upper-middle-class finance guy I saw working as a greeter at Home Depot with a thousand yard stare... economic PTSD.)


So I am shaving points off my internal model of the American people's willingness to give someone a second chance.

(Unless Obama's re-elect slogan is "Let the Motherfucker Burn," which might do well.)

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. Good points also

There is no easy out left, but my instincts tell me it will be worse for Obama overall if he forges ahead with an approach that can easily be villified as primarilly an industry bailout forcing Americans to do business with a set of players they distrust as much as big bankers, with no real cost controls, and new policy rate increases arriving in the mail daily WITH penelaties looming for being too broke to do business with them. On top of that, if Obama maintains the current course he will face the storms to follow without the support of many of his previously most dependable AND effective shock troops who will no longer be willing and/or able to defend him.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. It would help if it looked like he was DOING that (as opposed to having it done to him)

He would certainly do better to kill the bill than hang around seeing if it would die. At least he would regain some initiative.

As of the moment he comes off as a hapless victim of circumstance.

[Armstead]

20. This really is a symbolic issue -- And it;'s not moiderate versus liberal

It is whether Obama and the Democratic Party will continue to allow themselves (and the people) to continue to be held hostage by powerful Corporate/Wall Street Interests for the next eight years.

I'm a moderate, but I'm a liberal. The lack of representation of basic liberal principles compared to corporate interests by Obama and the Congress is very disheartening. Plus, politically, this capitulation -- as reflected in the health care bill -- is not going to make the average non-partisan independent feel that Obama and the party are on their side.

At the very least this will add to passive cynicism. At worst it will revitalize the GOP.

[grantcart]

24. couldn't disagree more

it will make him a better leader.


People romantasize FDR to death and I love him but his begining was an absolute disaster and despite having a rubber stamp congress he regularly fucked up.


Your other main interest is in unemployment and if Obama can make the stimulus work, and I am guessing even Dr. Krugman would agree that it seems to be outperforming expectations to date, then he will have huge numbers.


On the other side the Republicans are about at the end of their No against Everything string.


They will start positioning themselves on contradictory sides, one praying for Jesus and the other praying for General Motors and Palin will be leading them into a civil war.


Obama is tough. He can take it.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. Grantcart, for me this is the tie-breaker:

WASHINGTON - Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson — the moderate Democrat whose opposition is holding up the Senate's health care bill — says new language on abortion doesn't satisfy his concerns.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34465355/ns/politics-capitol_hill


If it is this close a call then I will let choice be my guide.

[grantcart]

25. A few days ago Nelson said that if the Health Care bill didn't pass in the Senate

then substantial reform would be done by reconciliation


He was rather glib about it.

[TwilightGardener]

19. If the bill goes down, I fear that the media will award the "credit" to the Teabaggers and GOP.

And thus confirm their assertions that America really hates soshulism and loves the status quo after all.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. They would talk out of both sides of their mouth as usual

When convenient, yes they would, and when convenient they would blame Howard Dean and the activist left. They will do what they always do to make liberal and progressive Democrats look bad no matter what we do. I am more concerned by the real life consequences of HCR's fate than I am of the media reaction to it, and when I look at political reactions at all rather than policy implications, I am more concerned about the reaction of the Democratic base to how HCR plays out than I am of how FOX News and Chris Mathews choose to spin it.

[madfloridian]

18. Here's a video

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/5411

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. Thanks!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/34461661#34461661

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. .