Cillizza: For Obama in 2012, closer look at state unemployment numbers shows silver lining

[alp227]

The national unemployment rate — 9.1 percent in May — paints a grim political picture for President Obama as he turns his attention to the 2012 race.

But dig slightly further into the numbers and the economic news is far less ominous for him.

According to a state-by-state analysis conducted by Matt McDonald, a partner at the GOP-aligned Hamilton Place Strategies, the unemployment rate outpaced the national average in only four swing states last month: Florida, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.

Of that quartet, Nevada is in the toughest economic shape by far, with a 12.1 percent unemployment rate. Florida (10.6 percent) and Michigan (10.3 percent) have double-digit jobless rates, while North Carolina’s 9.7 percent keeps it slightly above the national average.

Those four states will account for 66 electoral votes in 2012. Both parties are likely to target 10 states that have unemployment rates below the national average — Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Those states have a total of 106 electoral votes.

That means Obama could lose all four states where unemployment is above the national average and — assuming he can retain the other states he won in 2008 — still win a relatively comfortable reelection with 299 electoral votes.

Full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-obama-in-2012-closer-look-at-state-unemployment-numbers-shows-silver-lining/2011/06/19/AGFoe9bH_story.html

[Wilms]

1. Cool. At least he'll have a job.

I kind of think he's a shoe-in regardless. Looking forward to see if we get more of 2008 candidate Obama.

[Diamonique]

2. What I wanna see is more Dems in congress.

Not blue dogs, but real Dems in both houses of congress.

[young but wise]

3. +100

[Wilms]

4. I really agree.

I've thought that it's more important to get on the Dem Primaries if only to push incumbents off the "Third Way". And to then support the senate/congressional candidates. Once people are out to vote for them, Obama will get their votes and, hopefully, a congress willing to work on him by representing us.

[alp227]

6. me too, change begins with Congress

it's easy to whine about the president not having much power when Congress isn't in the hands of his party, but the way laws are passed, we must advocate for Congressional candidates in addition to presidential ones. They all influence our laws, judges in fed courts too.

[vaberella]

7. + Infinity. That is the key. n/t

[joshcryer]

9. +1

[uponit7771]

10. +1

[LiberalFighter]

13. Agreed. It doesn't do any good to elect Democrats

if they won't support the President's agenda. Provided it is the right agenda of course.

The Democrats need to have a spine and be working for the people.

[jenmito]

5. K&R! n/t

[AtomicKitten]

8. Interesting analysis.

k&r

[GeorgeGist]

11. Cherry picking a tad early in the season. /nt

[dionysus]

12. darn