My prediction on the debt ceiling

[nevergiveup]

A pure debt ceiling bill will pass by just a handful of votes a few days before deadline. It will all be worked out so tea party congress persons and maybe a couple Democrats can vote "no" to save face. The White House has known all along that the Republicans would never vote on a big deficit reducing package or any package for that matter which included revenue increases but it still looks good for Obama in the general public's mind because it looks like he made the attempt to compromise. It is all a big game. For those of you who think the Republicans will hold strong and not vote to raise the debt ceiling I can tell you two reasons why they will: The United States Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street.

[AlinPA]

1. The teabaggers control the house now. They will not vote to raise the debt ceiling. They don't care

about the CC and Wall Street. Boehner will become a hero when they vote against raising it.

[Drale]

4. Whats the point of being a hero to 40 people?

The great majority of the people who called them selves tea party patriots have already jumped ship, all that are left are the true lunatics and terrorists.

[AlinPA]

5. 40 people? The whole party is controlled by teabaggers and their most popular politicians

are their leaders (Pauls, Bachmann, Palin, Rubio, and the rest)

[Drale]

7. The media wants you to think that

and it looks like that because they scream to loudest but they have lost probably close to 90% of their numbers since the beginning because their policies are really starting to hit home with the masses.

[AlinPA]

9. I don't have the numbers of how many there are, but the house is still under the teabaggers' control

with that majority they got in the last election. None of them would ever vote to raise the debt ceiling. Bachmann is saying she won't vote to raise it and I've not heard of any GOP house member who would vote otherwise.

[karynnj]

6. Not so sure about that

While it is true that Pat Buchanan and Limbaugh et al see the debt ceiling as a "doomsday machine" for the New Deal programs, not all Republicans are there. The likelihood is there will be a bill that does raise the ceiling - likely with some deficit reduction. It will pass - as TARP did - with each party agreeing to get a portion of the votes.

Essentially the sensible middle refusing to actually play the game of chicken.

In his speech last week, Kerry alluded to the first TARP House vote in 2008 that failed - and pointed out that the market fell 8% that day. Both sides know they are in scary, uncharted territory. They also know that ramifications are long term. If the US defaults - even briefly, the interest rates on new debt will go up. At the rate the US borrows - and when new debt replaces old debt, even a 1% hike in the rates further increases the deficit. They KNOW defaulting essentially leads to throwing money away.

One clue that major players don't think they will default is that the market has not dropped as things have gotten more chaotic. That has to mean they don't think it will happen.

[AlinPA]

8. This ignores the fact that the GOP house is loaded with crazies who want the default to occur to

make it look like Obama's fault. There is no "sensible middle" in the GOP anymore.

[karynnj]

10. I completely agree that there are many crazies

What I was suggesting is that most Democrats and the small proportion of "big business" sane, though not admirable Republicans could pass it. This would be done with Republicans claiming that Democrats are "to blame" for increasing it. (Well, we should accept that blame knowing that the country really is not as into defaulting or starving government as the Republicans think. They might actually think of it as saving the country.)

[AlinPA]

11. That's optimistic, but "big business sane" republicans are hard to find in the house and their base

really wants the US to default. Hope you are right. Interest rates are very low now and if they jump a few percent say 5 percent the US would be more than doubling or tripling the amount of money needed to service the debt. Again, this would hurt the country but would help the republicans in the next election.

[karynnj]

12. My Congressman is Rodney Frelyinghusyen

His family has been in one office or another since the revolution. He is the definition of Old Money Republican. I have not heard him speak on this at all, but I assume that the affluent - invested in the stock market - Republicans in his district would be arguing for raising the limit.

I heard one estimate of what happens if the rate goes up even 1% - as you say - not pretty. I am really not sure that it helps the Republicans in the next election. It makes their lunatic base happy - but I bet it scares the hell out of most of the broad middle - not sure what radical thing they would do with more power.

[karynnj]

15. Optimistic is perhaps an understatement - it is a huge hope

If all the Republicans vote "no", there can be not Congressional raising of the limit, which really really needs to happen. The very fact that serious people in Congress (Kerry mentioned Senator Coons, DE ) and in the administration looking into the 14th amendment as a way for the President to raise it unilaterally, which NO ONE thinks is the right way to do this, shows that their is major concern that the Republicans will sit on it.

The scarier thing is that the Republicans will do something like raise it AND in the same bill make the Ryan budget the 2012 budget. This gives them the ability to say they "did vote for it" and the Senate/President rejected it.

This is the first time I remember a "bribe" being extracted to raise this. Politics by the party not in control has always been played, but this is an order of magnitude different. They are trying to get legislation that NEVER would pass on its own.

[Skink]

2. Yeah but Tommorrow the market weighs in.

[Yupster]

13. Could be a very bad day

Looks like Italy may cause a big selloff in Europe too.

[AtomicKitten]

3. I am hoping President O will invoke the 14th Amendment.

I think the president is dangling the baby over the cliff to prove beyond doubt that the GOP is the party of the corporations and the wealthy who are fine with cutting the social safety net to preserve tax cuts and subsidies for people that don't need them.

I hope everyone encourages the Congressional Dems to vote NO on anything negatively affecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and we can count on the GOP teabaggers to dig in their heels on any increases in revenue.

No deal! And then I hope the president pulls out the 14th Amendment to the Constitution and takes control. Well, that's how I'd like to see it go down.

[Yupster]

14. My prediction

A few small cuts that extend the deadline a few more weeks and then a few more months.

Then the budget battle will overshadow the debt talks.