Every single Presidential election of the past 50 years has been won in the political center

[scheming daemons]

You may not like it. Freepers don't like it either.


But Presidential elections are not won by who can woo the DUers or the freepers.


Barack Obama knows it.


This week he has set himself up nicely to win the political center. And in every Presidential election since World War II, the candidate that wins the political center wins the overall election.


We here on DU may not like that, but that is a political reality. It is an immutable fact.



So you can grouse all you want about how Obama is "selling you out". You can stomp your feet and scream that you will NOT vote for him this time.

But on the first Tuesday of November in 2012, you will be looking at a ballot that has the names "Barack Obama" and "Michelle Bachmann" (or "Mitt Romney" or "Rick Perry"... no other Republican has a chance) and you will have a choice to make.

And Barack Obama's team knows that you will not vote for the Republican candidate under any circumstances. And the very small percentage of Democrats that stick to their guns and either don't vote at all or vote a write-in will be more than offset by the hordes of centrists that Obama has won over by taking actions like he has taken this week.


Obama has set himself up as the "reasonable man in the middle" between intransigent conservatives and progressives with his behavior in recent weeks.

You can be pissed about it all you want. And it DOES suck from a policy perspective. But from a purely political perspective, it is genius and will work.

He'll be re-elected in 2012. That fact may make you happy or it may enrage you or it may make you disappointed. Doesn't matter.

You (DU) are not the audience here. Yes, he's taken you for granted. But all of your protestations and condemnations aside.... you, dear reader... will very likely vote for him again.

[Raven]

1. The question is: how have age 55+ voters figured in the past elections?

[onenote]

46. will those 55+ voters think that the repub candidate will protect them?

Is there a repub candidate out there arguing that Social Security and Medicare shouldn't be touched? If there is, I missed reading about it.

I have older relatives in Florida. For a while they were enamored of Eric Cantor (that nice Jewish boy from Virginia) and even indicated that if he was on the repub ticket as VP they'd be inclined to support the ticket (so long as it wasn't headed by an out and out fundie like Bachmann). But in the last couple of days they've done a complete about face. They are pissed that Cantor (one of "our own") would screw the elderly and as they say "he's dead to us now."

[Enrique]

2. i agree this helps Obama's presidential chances

unfortunately it's going to hurt a lot of people. It's of course going to hurt the people losing their benefits, it's also going to hurt the economy,as in cost jobs, it's going to hurt Congressional dems, and it's going to shift the whole political center to the right for years to come. But it will help Obama get re-elected.

[lamp_shade]

3. Fourth rec

[bhikkhu]

52. Apparently its not happy news for everybody

I just rec'd it at zero; still at zero.

[whosinpower]

4. I learned a word very early in life

No.

[scheming daemons]

5. You can vote how you want... won't change the political math overall

You, whosinpower, are inconsequential here.

[Kahuna]

39. Yes. Babies use that word a lot. nt

[OwnedByFerrets]

6. You dont get it...if he fucks with SS or Medicare, he's done

And Monkeyboy was center?? Really??

[scheming daemons]

7. A) There won't be any fucking of SS or Medicare

Obama knows that GOP will never sign on to any deal that has tax increases, so it won't happen.


But by putting it out there, he has won the political rhetoric war and has won the center.



And B), "monkeyboy" won because he won slightly more of the moderates than Kerry did. In 2000, the election was stolen, so that's the outlier that doesn't mesh with the facts. But even in 2000, the political middle was roughly evenly split between Gore and Bush.

[w4rma]

10. He hasn't won jack, he has lost the trust of most of his supporters. (nt)

[scheming daemons]

13. But he hasn't lost their vote, when the alternative is a Republican

Read the OP again.

It's not about you, really.

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[lamp_shade]

30. He did? Most of his supporters? Got a link?

[OwnedByFerrets]

12. Why would the administration not come right out and say

SS and Medicare are NOT in any discussions. What makes you think that the repugs wont allow the eligibility age to increase? And you said NO candidate had been elected without being in the center. You didnt put qualifiers on it in your OP.

[scheming daemons]

17. Because Obama is setting himself up as an arbiter between progressives and conservatives

So he's not going to say what you suggested. He wants the political moderates in this country to think of him as a "referee" here.

As for 2000... Bush and Gore basically split the political moderates... and that is why the election was essentially a tie.

[CrossChris]

42. Yes, and what American doesn't LOVE the referee?

Always a crowd favorite!

[Fire1]

51. A) LOL!!! n/t

[nxylas]

9. Exactly

The Chicago boys and their tools in the corporate media have redefined center to mean far-right. Destroying what remains of the New Deal is not "centrist", it's the culmination of everything the far-right has been plotting since General Smedley Butler blew the whistle on their plot to overthrow FDR and replace him with a fascist junta.

[robcon]

15. Not true. I, and most Dems, will vote for Obama.

Dems will vote for the president.

Repubs will vote for the Repub candidate.

Independents will decide the election. I don't think any of the Repub candidates have a chance against Obama of attracting independents. The president will be re-elected easily.

[bornskeptic]

41. If he launches a military invasion of Canada he's done

He fucked with Medicare in the Affordable Care Act, by adding benefits worth hundreds of dollars a year to the average Senior, and reducing costs by enough to extend the projected lifetime of the Medicare Trust Fund by 12 years according to CMS. Do Obama Bashers bash him for that? No, they just pretend that it never happened and bash him over horrible things which they fantasize that he's going to do in the future, and which those of us with our feet more firmly on the ground know he's not going to do.

[lamp_shade]

43. I'll be watching for somebody to pick this up (the invasion) and run with it.

:hi:

[bhikkhu]

54. What if there's a reasonable explanation?

:P

[w4rma]

8. The political center is not where the Centrists are. (nt)

[scheming daemons]

11. The political center wants somebody who is a "referee" between progressives and conservatives

And Obama has set himself up that person in this debt debate.

[w4rma]

14. If Obama was trying to be in the political center rather than a Centrist who does what Wall Street

lobbies for him to do, then I would have said it.

[robcon]

16. Obama is a political centrist. He will be re-elected easily.

The Repubs have no one who could beat him.

[w4rma]

44. No. He's a Centrist. I'm not one bit concerned, nor do I care - anymore, about Obama's re-election.

I care about the elections and re-elections of the Democratic members of Congress. I consider them to be vastly more important than Obama's self-interests.

[disillusioned73]

35. I'd venture to guess that most of Prez Obamas..

strongest supporters (myself included) in 2008 did not vote for a "referee". You can try to demean my significance but I am still here and I still count.

[vi5]

18. Well that's good to hear....

So if he doesn't need our votes, then we won't have to hear the whining and complaining when he loses that it was all our fault for not voting for him?

Wow. I was really dreading the blame game the day after the election but I'm so happy to hear that's not the case.

Bookmarked.

[scheming daemons]

20. He's not going to lose. Moot point.

[vi5]

27. Duly noted.

[mazzarro]

36. Well, I heard same type of argument during the mid-term elections

When the clamor was that the dems could not veer left and that postponing decisions on a number of legislations that the blue dog dems opposed would put the dems in the center and win independents to offset disaffected dems. Well, what happened, the disaffected dems stayed home and the independents chose the rethugs despite all the centering of the blue dog dems.
Since you are sure that the independents will make up for the disaffected dems, I will hope you do not throw out blames all over for those who choose to stay home because of Obama's decision to look down on the dem base.

[vi5]

37. I'm assuming you mean the OP?

I agree with you. That was my point. If he's saying they don't need us to win then I don't want to hear the complaints when he doesn't win.

Like you pointed out, they said the same thing going into 2010. "We need to give the blue dogs everything they need!!! Or the centrists won't vote for any Dems!! Trust us!!!"

Then when we got ravaged at the ballot box, the excuse was "Why did the liberals stay home and cost us the election?!?!?"

[mazzarro]

38. Yes indeed - It was mean't for the OP --- n/t

[kick-ass-bob]

19. Problem is, this "center" has been drifting right because

the right keeps moving farther right, which means this center is not really the center at all.

If 0 is the true center then our current center is now about +20.

[izquierdista]

21. Except 1980

When the right-wing, through a little luck and a lot of subterfuge, managed to get their Goldwater rehash look respectable. It's been all down hill since.

[elocs]

22. Neither Republicans nor Democrats can win the presidency without getting votes from the center.

That's simple reality. A Tea Party supported candidate would lose just as would any from the far left that DU likes to fantasize about.

[w4rma]

45. You mean: Money from the Center. There are Zero votes there since corporations can't vote, yet. (nt)

[VeryConfused]

23. Damn you and your reality based observations

why are you ruining all the rants? It's lots of fun to throw temper tantrums because one didn't get one's way. It's no fun to be a grown up and accept that the real world has limitations and you can't always get what you want.

[wndycty]

24. 7th Rec at 8:30 AM (Central)

:kick:

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MannyGoldstein]

34. Also not 1972, 1964, 1980, 1984, 2004.

That makes 6 of the last 12 elections. I'm thinking that you've not proved your point.

[blue neen]

48. "Far-right nut".

That's just plain hyperbole. Anything you have posted that had some merit to it, just got blown away by that statement.

Rick Santorum, our former Senator, is a fine example of a far-right nut.

[bvar22]

49. Hey! I remember that guy from 2008.

What ever happened to him?

EFCA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMNVIQqatyU

NAFTA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LtbLEKHsi0&NR=1

Cadillac Tax
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8wmN3wvhNM&feature=player_embedded

Comfortable Shoes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SA9KC8SMu3o

Public Option & Mandates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acc6Wn_BWlk




That guy was NO "Centrist".
He sounded like an old style Liberal fighter for the Working Class
I really miss that guy.

Instead we got:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejvyDn1TPr8

[VeryConfused]

28. Damn you and your reality based observations

why are you ruining all the rants? It's lots of fun to throw temper tantrums because one didn't get one's way. It's no fun to be a grown up and accept that the real world has limitations and you can't always get what you want.

[nevergiveup]

29. I am not trilled with this reality

but I am OK with it. It is the way modern politics works today in America. With Obama there will at least be a few good things and slow progress. With a Romney there will be nothing and I can't even bring myself to think about a President Bachmann.

[randr]

31. Without the right to lifers and the gun lobby Bush would have lost

and without the Naderites gore would have won.
Either way the fringe is a deciding factor.

[leveymg]

32. Absolute myth. Polls show the public more liberal on most issues than Presidents and most Congress

The problem is that many naturally liberal constituencies -- the poor, young people, and minorities -- are discouraged voters, and don't turn out in most elections as often as more affluent white, relatively conservative voters. The exception, such as 2008, was when the discouraged electorate thought they had reason for "hope and change". Not next time, I'm afraid.

[villager]

33. ah, the ol' myth of "the center," which provides cover for the continual rightward drift

...of American politics.

Things on the far right keep getting relabeled as "centrism," so people can nod, sigh, and unquestioningly go along with the agenda...

[Larkspur]

40. My analysis says the Presidency is won by the candidate who can rally his base

and win Independents. Independents respond to an excited base and will lean towards the excited base than the depressed one. Maybe that is called the middle or maybe it's about standing up for the core principals of your party in a charismatic way.

[ensemble]

47. mostly agree but....

if unemployment continues to rise, things may not turn out as expected.
The independents will go into "throw the bums out" mode, and any incumbent will be in danger.

The R's would like this, and Obama is playing right into their hand.

[Fire1]

50. Great post! K&R

[Hand_With_Eyes]

53. Translation

Make excuses for the rightward frogmarch at all costs, Democratic ideals be damned.

[dflprincess]

55. Exactly

Let's ignore what was once the "center" is now considered the extreme left.

[jefferson_dem]

56. Oh preach it!

:thumbsup:

[Armstead]

57. The "center" is a meaningless term....Everyone defines that on their own worldview