I am so SICK of hearing about independents. Read this

[CrazyBob]

‘Independent’ Voters Are Generally Not

They are prized by pollsters, but are smaller in number and less influential than most think.
By Tom Jacobs

---"Why don’t all pollsters restrict their surveys of independents to people who are genuinely unaffiliated with a party? Petrocik believes the problem is the small number of people in that category.

“Without the leaners, the base of independents could be as small as 150 respondents in the typical national sample of 1,000 or so that we read about,” he said. “The sampling error of such a small number would be very large — 15 percentage points. It is hard to take a seven-point shift seriously if you are dealing with a 15 or more percentage point sampling error.”

The pollsters defend their practice by arguing that the fact some partisans are unwilling to identify with their party is interesting information, even if it doesn’t necessarily predict voting patterns."---

http://www.miller-mccune.com/politics/independent-voters-are-generally-not-3560/

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[graywarrior]

1. Same here

I view them as either attention whores desperate to "be different" or closet republicans.

[ElboRuum]

2. There is no such thing as an independent voter.

Independent voters typically do not align with a particular party because they have an issue with what would be their preferred party, either it being too moderate or too extreme or differing with it on a particular key issue. However, they will vote with their preferred party against the opposition party so long as it can be reasonably inferred that this individual for whom they are voting does not run afoul of their issue with the party in general.

[robcon]

6. Wow - just defining away the plurality of the electorate. Must be great to be that smug.

n/t

[ElboRuum]

9. Are you saying that 'independent voters' are a plurality of the electorate.

Well. Just because you aren't registered with a party doesn't mean you are independent for purposes of this discussion.

I'm sure there are plenty of teabaggers who aren't registered Republicans, but I bet they vote (R) across the board. Are they a part of this 'plurality'?

Truly independent voters weigh in on issues, not party. Now you're trying to tell me, after all you've seen over the past years, that most (plurality, your word) people vote ISSUES? My friend, if the plurality of the people in this country voted the issues rather than the party (determining us, then determining them, then voting against them and for us) we wouldn't be in the sorry shape we're in right now.

The reality defies your assertion.

[robcon]

10. Yes, independents are the plurality. Dems about 33%, Repugs about 28%, Inds about 39%

Most independents are not that excited about (national) politics. They are not, for example, likely to be on political websites or boards, and are not likely to follow national political news closely.

Maybe it's a broad generalization, but many independents vote for the person and/or ideas they like, or just as likely, vote against the person and/or ideas they dislike. And those persons/ideas may, or may not, be ideologically determined. Many of them, IMO, are the ones who don't vote unless some important issue/personality drives them to the polls.

[ElboRuum]

11. It is broad, and I believe, in error.

Independent =/= uninterested. Independents (for the purposes of this discussion) are people who are not a member of a party because, and this is the critical part, they actively disagree with many of the planks of the platform in either party to justify membership. Those who aren't interested are not independents, specifically because they do not care about politics. They've not actively made any decision to not register for a party. And more importantly, they rarely vote. So this group can be as large as you imagine because then factored into electoral politics, they mean precisely nothing.

This is to say nothing of the Libertarian or Embarrassed Republican 'independent' who vote Republican or guys like Lieberman who are 'independent' only in the sense that they couldn't win as a Republican.

True independents are far and few between. They are concerned, politically involved voters who understand the issues, research their candidates, and vote according to the people they honestly believe represent them regardless of their party affiliation. If you now want to claim that this is the 'plurality' of the American electorate under this clarification, you are welcome to, but I won't be convinced any time soon.

[billh58]

18. You have nailed it.

There are very few "Independents" in the sense that they are a block vote and can sway elections as a group. By their own definition they vote for the "person" and not the Party, and basically waste their votes by acting as spoilers by being "against" a political candidate rather then "for" the Party's platform.

The inherent problems with that ideology, however, is that they are still voting for a candidate who has been nominated by either the Democrats, or the Republicans, or an "Independent" who normally is little more than a spoiler. So in that sense, the claim that "Independents" can sway elections is only a half-truth. Their influence is mainly felt by an apathetic lack of votes rather than support for one side or the other. In the end, 95% of the time either a Democrat or a Republican will win any given election. For those who claim that voting for a Republican who, in their opinion, is the best candidate, ignores the facts of the political arena and the way majorities are formed in the House and the Senate.

Another problem in registering as an "Independent" is that they have no input or vote into either the Democratic or Republican National Committees, and the various processes by which registered Democrats and Republicans can influence their Parties internally (votes for District Chairmanships, Committee seats, National offices, etc.).

And lastly, "Independents" who claim to be Liberals constantly threaten to either vote for Republicans, or withhold their votes as a way of asserting their political power. In the end the only thing they accomplish is the election of more radical neoconservatives, and a majority of "just say no" conservative partisan idiots like we are witnessing in the debt ceiling fiasco.

[CrazyBob]

14. I disagree strongly

I know its rude to ask for links. But if you have some kind of information that backs that up, I would love to read it.

What you are saying sounds like the same thing the national politicians are saying, and its totally incorrect. And it ignores the facts available.

[abelenkpe]

3. Every independent voter I've ever met is actually a republican

At least that is how they vote.

[vaberella]

7. Then you haven't met enough. I'm an Independent and there are a few of us on DU. n/t

[krawhitham]

29. Independent voter with 21537 post on DU, explains a lot about the shape DU is in

[krabigirl]

30. Lol, I am independent and have never voted for a republican, but ok.

[robcon]

4. I define independents as those who don't belong to either party.

They're the ones who determine elections, since Dems will vote for Dems, and Repugs will vote for Repugs.

There aren't enough Dems or Repugs to win an election.

[center rising]

17. Absolutely right!!!

I am an independent, who usually votes Democratic. What's wrong with that?? Just because I don't blindly follow a party like a lot here do, does not mean I don't know what the hell I'm doing. I look at people over party, and will always do so. To vote for party over person IMO, is the wrong reason to vote in the first place.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. I believe that most Independents, however, are disaffected Republicans who

can no longer align themselves with the Republican Party.

For news I was also an Independent (a liberal Independent) who votes for Democrats and members of the Green Party. However, since my state (Maryland) has closed primaries, I could never participate in them, and so I always had to change to Democrat or wait for the general election.

Well, I have come to the conclusion that voting in local and state primaries is where you get the most progressive candidates, and if I can't participate, then it does me no good. So, I finally changed my P.A. in 2004.

[stklurker]

23. Ditto

nothing. I do the same, the parties always seem loyal to the party above all and both think the answer is either black or white, when in most cases the answer is grey. To me it is the party people who don't pay much attention.. they walk in, punch a button, walk out instead of sitting back, looking at the issues and the candidates and making a decision.

[vaberella]

5. This is generally true. I'm an Independent that generally votes Dem.

But there are Independents that generally vote Repub.

[CrazyBob]

24. This is my point

So if Michelle Bachmann targets her advertising at you, its probably a waste of money.

Same as Obama trying to convert my neocon birther rebellion neighbor.

The actual "up for grabs" voters are very very few. And I have serious doubts as to whether they inhabit the political center.

[Hand_With_Eyes]

8. Im an independent leftist

Ever since the Democratic party decided to be the GOP.

[otohara]

12. Uninformed, Apathetic, Dull

People who let others choose the candidates are not "independent".

[CrazyBob]

16. That should be a T-Shirt! (nt)

[mkultra]

13. independent voters are vital to winning an election

and yes they do exist. They are essentially low information voters. They don't pay close attention to politics but still vote. There are plenty of people who pose as indies but they don't count. The Republicans frequently kill us with this understanding. Both bases are virtually even in number which makes actual independents the most important block. This is the reason McCain could have beat Obama until he brought Palin on board. bringing in Palin increased his cred with the base but killed him with the indies because she was so polarizing.

Moving the center is the only way to change politics in America and you move the center by voting in the "direction" you want to go. That's why fringes and their candidates on both sides are death sentences for each party.

[CrazyBob]

15. Independents arent in "center," they are in the LaLa Land

That's the same logic by which President Obama reached out to the Tea Party in its early stages - feeling that it was just people who were fed up with both parties, etc. Wrong. Way wrong.

According to everything I can see, independents are either disaffected leaners or people who generally rarely bother to vote or pay attention, as you said. In no case does that suggest that there exists a "center" where independents reside. They are not a group, and they do not share common beliefs, except in Survivor and Jersey Shore.

[mkultra]

19. i would agree and disagree

By referring to them as low information voters i made it clear they where out of touch. They look for the center and vote based on the generality of said center. They often see both sides as extremes and look to sit the fence. Its their method of being "reasonable"

The center is defined in context to the american voting block. It is the median not the mean.

[CrazyBob]

22. What % of voters do you think fits that description? (nt)

[mkultra]

25. well, i can only guess as i havent seen the recent numbers

But the last i heard the estimates was 38%. Now i personally think that number is wildly inflated because i think it includes those who greatly dislike their "own" party but for whom voting the other sides of the spectrum is out of the question. Those people frequently go ahead and vote angry or simply stay home, they rarely switch sides.

The true swing or floating voter is someone who just doesn't pay attention and takes whatever political buzz bubbles up to them. I personally think they are something like 10%-18%. This isn't really much but the truth is that since people that fall on either side on the American spectrum are virtually equal in number, this small fraction becomes the tie breaker in almost every case.

As a presidential candidate, you can be as introspective as you want but if you don't generate a clean and concise overall message that is short on details and high on feeling then you just cant win. As is the case in politics and in life, the world is built for the unconscious and non-reflective among us.

[CrazyBob]

27. That could very well be

I happen to think that the number of persuadable people who are actually going to vote is a lot smaller. And I think focusing on party turnout will yield higher vote totals than going after the persuadables.

But I could be wrong.

[CrazyBob]

21. GW Bush

Never moved to the center. He played to his base constantly. Wiped us out too. Repeatedly.

[mkultra]

26. he actually did move to the center.

His first election was based around the principle of "Compassionate conservatism." now you and I both know that's bullshit but for people in the middle, that has some resonance. He spoke like a gentle conservative with free market ideas and freedom on his mind but quietly signaled the religious right with dog whistle comments.

He basically spoke to his base in cryptic terms with a wider audience as the general tone.

In my view, the reason Obama won, and will do so again, is that he has also mastered this method. His quite progressive rhetoric is often lost on those of the far left but I can hear what he is saying.

[CrazyBob]

31. Well I guess there are a lot of interpretations

There are several other reasons to explain Obama's win. For one, the guy is a great campaigner. Also, it was on the heels of some very serious GOP scandals involving sex and lies.

And the big one for me, the GOP nominee was a pro-choice, anti-Gitmo candidate. GOP voter turnout in 2008 was low.

Mark my words: if Romney gets the nomination, a large percentage of fundie wackos will stay at home rather than vote for a mormon. And no amount of centrism will save him. Those people are stubborn as a mule.

Anyway, thanks for the interesting point of view.

[golfguru]

28. U.S. Satisfaction Slides to Two-Year Low

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148475/Satisfaction-Slides-Two-Year-Low.aspx