So How Many House Seats Do The Repubs Lose In 2012?

[SoFlaJet]

I say around 80

[FreakinDJ]

1. If America equates "Repub = Cuts to SS and Medicaid"

quite a few

[daa]

14. Along with Obama if he cuts them nt

[bahrbearian]

15. Is that why Obama put them on the table?

[bowens43]

2. I'll be surprised if they have net loss.

redistricting is taking place all over the country. Democratic strongholds are being carved up.

[SoFlaJet]

3. it's going to be all about turnout

and people are seeing that these republicans did NOT do what they said they would do, what their number one focus was: "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs". Not one single jobs bill and what we do have looks like some ancient Roman or Greek knives-out form of democracy going on-especially in the House

[mikekohr]

22. 2012's electorate will be 20% younger, 25% larger, and 14% Browner

ALL those numbers are in our favor. President Obama will repeat the "Obama Effect," of 2088. His coattails will carry many Democrats into office all across the nation. It's very early to predict but the chance of a landslide are getting better. At this point I'll go with a +35 seat pickup for the good guys.



24 in '12

[bornskeptic]

7. Redistricting can only do so much. NY 26th is a Republican stronghold.

How did that work out for them? I'll concede that redistricting might give them ten or so more seats, so we may only pick up about 30.

[former9thward]

17. Sorta a myth that it was a R stronghold.

Obama got 46% of the vote in that district. I would not call that a stronghold.

[joshcryer]

20. Nate Silver says redistricting will be a wash last I recall.

I looked again and he hasn't done anything about it.

It'll be up to, as the other poster said, turnout. Demoralizing the Republican base could do wonders.

[Dawgs]

4. Not many. Most people don't have a clue about what's happening in Washington.

And, the Republicans will eventually vote to raise the debt ceiling. They are dumb, but not that dumb.

It will go unnoticed by most, and President Obama will still get the blame for a poor economy.

[SoFlaJet]

5. Not according

to the latest poll that showed up this morning-by 57% they still blame Bush

[Dawgs]

10. Those are encouraging numbers, but do they translate to votes for Obama?

I don't think so.

[cyclezealot]

6. Remember gerrydistricting & Tx, Ut, Az population gains..

The Dems have control of redistricting in very few states.. the gopers will certainly screw up chances for contested elections in many states.. .. Still, as unpopular as are GOP state governors- we'll gain.. I'd predict between 20 to 45..

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. The pendulum is set to swing. High turnout = Speaker Pelosi. nt

[66 dmhlt]

9. Fun to dream - but just wayyy too far in the future to say

[creon]

11. Two dozen

Right now, I am guessing about 25.

[HERVEPA]

12. 5 - 10

[Bluenorthwest]

13. Lots.

Hard to say because the areas that elect them at all are right wing areas. But only the most right wing districts will elect them. They always do anyway.

[Ter]

16. They may gain 10, or lose 20

Nothing more, nothing less.

[Zoeisright]

18. I say 60

[Tx4obama]

19. I'm hoping the GOP will lose all of them :) n/t

[Divine Discontent]

21. that'd be so wonderful! a complete loss of hundreds of seats! ahh, what a dream - there'd be no

stopping progress then. I think they'll lose at least 10, hopefully 30, all depends on the economy come aug-sep 2012. Hoping some more GOPers dirty affairs also come out over the next year. C'mon Larry Flynt!