Election 2012: Romney 43% Obama 42%

[Hand_With_Eyes]

In a very early look at Election 2012, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are essentially even.
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Romney attracting 43% of the vote while Obama earns support from 42%. In April, Obama held a five-point edge over Romney.

"If the 2012 Presidential Election were held today would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?"

President Obama currently trails a Generic Republican by six points, 47% to 41%. In match-ups against individual Republicans, the president picks up between 41% and 49% of the vote no matter which Republican is presented as a potential opponent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_romney_43_obama_42

Ugh!

[aaaaaa5a]

1. Relax

This was Rasmussens report yesterday.


Obama 41%

Paul 37%



Yes, that's right we are talking about Ron Paul polling within the margin of error of the President in a National Presidential poll!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_41_ron_paul_37


Some pollsters provide good information. Others have a strict ideology and hope to create a story and narrative with their results.


Oh, and for Obama to be trailing by only 1% point at this stage of the election is excellent news. I had a thread on this board (somewhere) which detailed how to properly evaluate polls at this stage of the race.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

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[sharp_stick]

2. A couple of points

1: It's Rasmussen, anything that prick bothers to put out has a hard enough puke spin to cause an acrobat to get dizzy enough to puke.

2: At this point in time Mondale was beating Reagan, Dukakis was beating Bush the smarter, Gore was kicking the shit out of Bush the Dumber and Kerry was beating Bush the Dumber.

3: Magic underpants Mitt has to get by the wacko brigade that gets to select the puke nominee and I just don't think they want a Jesus hatin' Mormon that passed an actual health care bill. They'll take their religion Bachmann crazy style any day.

Take away message: Polls at this point in time, even from reputable sources not just the shit Scotty grunts out, are a waste of time and energy.

[DCBob]

4. Apply the tried and true RazRule.. +5 to the Dem, - 5 to the Repub..

Puts Obama up by 9. Sounds about right.

[jenmito]

5. You're taking (R)asmussen seriously?

Ugh! :eyes:

[elocs]

6. Someone recently posted here how it is typical for a sitting President to be trailing at this point

and sometimes trailing badly, and then they go on to easily win reelection.

That the polls at this time show the race to be close actually bodes well for Obama. I wouldn't worry about it.

[aaaaaa5a]

15. Here it is... I finally found it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1539181

[elocs]

17. Yes, that's the one I saw. n/t

[BklnDem75]

7. All you need to know about Rassmussen Polls

The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point, Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied.

Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative — the same direction in which his polls have generally leaned — although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view, that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[BklnDem75]

11. More to know about Rassmussen

All field work (the automated survey calls) for Rasmussen Reports polls is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, a firm that licensed methodology developed by Scott Rasmussen and uses of automated public opinion polling, involving pre-recorded telephone surveys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports#Criticism

Pulse Opinion Research is a subsidiary of Fox News.

[Tarheel_Dem]

30. Tsk! Tsk! No more "Inconvenient Truths" please.

;)

[jenmito]

8. (ABC News/Washington Post) "Poll: Obama 51 (+4), Romney 44 (-3)."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=433&topic_id=716418

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

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[Arkana]

10. When did we start trusting Scott Rasmussen's polling information again?

[Peacetrain]

12. Rasmussen...uhhhh hmmmm welll

hmmmm uhhhh. Not a good source

[jefferson_dem]

13. You do realize Rasmussen is a Repuglican stooge, right?

That's not even a debateable point.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

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[aaaaaa5a]

16. This thread I did a few days ago may put these numbers in perspective.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1539181

[great white snark]

25. Thanks so much, very informative.

:thumbsup:

[LiberalFighter]

18. unrec

[JTFrog]

19. Trip trap trip trap..... n/t

[vroomvroom]

21. Wake me up in 471 days 16 hours 34 minutes 4 seconds....

when this post/poll will be worth reading.

[CrazyBob]

22. Nonsense

Romney isn't going to fly in a general election any more than McCain did. The fundies won't go out and beat the streets for him, cuz he is a mormon. He can't win.

[krispos42]

23. And what does the electoral map look like?

Let's not forget how Shrub "won" the presidency.

[MadMaddie]

24. Yawn

another bullshit poll way too early....

Right Wing Christians are not going to vote for Romney and we know why. Romeny will not be able to get away from the fact that he broke up American companies and outsourced all of the work....

[oviedodem]

26. Ras-crap the only one that has it like this go here:

Obama vs.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

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[KingFlorez]

28. And we should remember that Rasmussen was essentially called out

Last cycle, it was well established they had a clear bias toward Republicans and had more misses than hits in polling.

[Avalux]

29. What's up with that big, bold "Ugh"?

Come on now, that poll didn't really make you that upset did it?