Dems plot endgame: Let Boehner plan crash and burn, then dare GOP to let Reid plan fail

[jefferson_dem]

Dems plot the engame in debt limit fight
By Greg Sargent

So now what? Now that Dems and Republicans have unveiled competing plans for the way forward — and now that both sides have dug in — what happens next?

Here’s the game plan, as seen by Senate Dem aides: The next move is to sit tight and wait for the House to vote on Boehner's proposal. The idea is that with mounting conservative opposition to Boehner’s proposal, it could very well be defeated. If the Boehner plan goes down in the House, that would represent a serious blow to Boehner’s leadership, weakening his hand in negotiations.

“The Senate will wait to act until we see if Speaker Boehner is able to pass a bill in the House,” a senior Senate Democratic aide says. “At the moment that’s an open question.”

It’s unclear as of yet where most Tea Partyers will come down on the Boehner proposal, but House conservatives are privately expressing serious reservation about the plan, arguing that it doesn’t cut spending enough, and the Republican Study Committee is dismissing Boehner’s plan as not “a real solution.” Dems hope that if conservatives do sink Boehner’s plan, it will reveal clearly that Boehner does need Democratic votes to get anything passed.

At that point, the Senate would then pass Harry Reid’s proposal, and then kick it over to the House, which would increase pressure on Boehner to try to get it passed, since he was unable to pass his own plan.

<SNIP>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/dem-game-plan-let-boehner-proposal-crash-and-burn/2011/03/03/gIQAFebvaI_blog.html

[drm604]

1. Maybe I'm missing something here.

If the tea partiers won't pass Boehner's plan then they sure as hell won't pass Reid's.

[napi21]

4. MAYBE, just maybe, the powers that be, ie: the corporate donors,

and even their idol Grover, will put enough pressure on them at the last minute. I know the Corp. guys don't want to crash the financial system, and honestly, I doubt Grover does either.

[flamingdem]

18. ha ha never thought we'd look to corporate donars to save us nt

[AlinPA]

23. The GOP has been taken over by the crazies and there are not enough republicans left

to beat back the teabaggers. While many are not actually members of the tea party caucus, most of them are no different in their policies and stance. After last night's speech it is hard to argue that Boehner is anything but a teabagger.

[napi21]

33. Boner is no teabagger. Last night, he not only sounded like he

was lying, (which he was) but he LOOKED like it. He never even looked into the camera! If there's a video of his little speech, watch it. He's looking up and to the right, at what, who knows. Even Tweety mentioned it on his review of the two speeches.

[AlinPA]

39. He sure acts and talks like a teabagger. Everything he does is advocating for them.

He knows his "plan" will not fly and he will get the default for them.

[DCBob]

5. Wont need the teaparty vote as long as the moderate GOPers vote for it and all the Dems..

that should be enough to pass.

[elleng]

6. You've 'whipped' this?

Seriously, you have some ideas about the individuals and the numbers? Would love to hear/see.

Thanks

[DCBob]

10. hehe. nope.. just ball parking.. but I think the numbers will work out..

the key will be to get eough moderate R's.

[elleng]

11. Right. Who/where are they?

[DCBob]

12. Yeah, hope are there are still a few remaining...at least enough to pass this bill.

[drm604]

9. Good point.

The Democrats won't vote for Boehner's plan so he cant' pass it without the tea partiers, but since the Democrats will, hopefully, vote for Reid's, they'll only need a handful of Republicans.

I wasn't thinking it through. :dunce:

[totodeinhere]

26. There are no moderate Republicans in the House. n/t

[DCBob]

35. Yeah, perhaps I should have said non-teabagger Republicans.

They might vote for Reid bill if they see it as the only option to resolve this mess.

[karynnj]

14. Iassume they expect the formerly "moderate" Republicans to vote for it

along with the Democrats.

My Congressman might be an example of someone like that. He is the latest in a family that have severed in one office or another since the Revolutionary war. My county has an arboretum donated by a relative of the Congressman. He is as "old money" Republican as it gets and the Republicans here include many that are extremely wealthy, who would not want to see a market crash. I did speak to someone in his office appealing to him as a moderate, not one of the "RW", but his votes in the last year show he either agrees with the tea party or is a coward and fears them. (Though why is beyond me - he very easily beat a primary challenge last time.)

[SpartanDem]

24. This is the real issue

will the moderates stop being so afraid of the tea party? I wish could say there was no doubt about this happening, but I never thought we would get so close to default.

[Avalux]

16. Yep. They won't pass anything.

Are they willing to let all hell break loose? We'll see....

[Proud Liberal Dem]

27. Nobody's expecting the tea partiers to pass Reid's plan

As if!!!! :eyes: The idea, however, is that the non-Tea Party Republicans will join with enough Democrats to ensure the Reid plan (or some kind of acceptable "merged" plan) ultimate passage. :shrug:

[napi21]

2. Hope it works. Crzy asthos Pubs are, I sure woudn't be surprised if

they said "Just let the Country blow!"

[DCBob]

3. kind a wish they kept their strategy secret.

the GOPers read WaPo.

[elleng]

8. Good point.

So much 'hollerin' from all over, with or without 'knowledge' of strategy.

[DCBob]

7. The "second alternative" sounds more interesting..

The second alternative possibility being gamed out by Senate Dems would take place if the Boehner plan does manage to sneak through the House. Aides say Dems would then vote it down in the Senate. And here’s where it gets even more interesting.

Senate Dem aides say they would then use Boehner’s bill — which passed the House but died in the Senate — to expedidate their own proposal. Here’s how. They would use the “shell” of the Boehner bill as a vehicle to pass Harry Reid’s proposal, because for various procedural reasons House messages get expedited consideration. Senate Dems would vote to “amend” Boehner’s bill by replacing it completely with Reid’s proposal — which the Senate could then pass more quickly than they otherwise could.

After that, Reid’s proposal — having passed the Senate — would then get kicked back to the House. Having proved that Boehner’s plan can’t pass the Senate, Democrats would in effect be giving House Republicans a choice: Either pass the Reid proposal, or take the blame for default and the economic calamity that ensues.

[karynnj]

17. That is an interesting approach

It also seems to be pretty commonly used. (It does make searching for a long ago roll call that much trickier as the purpose of the bill can have nothing to do with what it became! I've taken to googling to find an article on the passage just to have the date.)

This depends on the Senate Democrats holding together better than the House Democrats, as it might be strategically harder if the Democrats need to filibuster to defeat the House bill. We can only lose 3 Democrats to the Boehner plan. If we get all 53 Democrats for the Reid plan, including many, like Sanders, who likely is not all that happy with it, can we get 7 Republicans who at least refuse to filibuster it?

[leftynyc]

30. I like it

Is there a downside (other than coming so close to the cliff) that I'm not seeing?

[Enrique]

13. all these games

i have a feeling who's going to win and who's going to lose and it has NOTHING to do with fucking political parties.

[vaberella]

15. Sadly....people voted Tea Partiers who care more about political games than people. n/t

[Parker CA]

19. What's the plan if Boehner's plan fails in the House and Reid's plan can't get 60 Senate votes? nt

[nsd]

20. Do they need 60 votes to get it out of the Senate?

Is the idea that, once the Boehner bill fails, a handful of Republicans will be willing to go along with the Reid bill to prevent catastrophe?

[Parker CA]

21. Yes, the bill needs 60 in Senate. If Boehner's plan fails, maybe pressure will be enough on GOP in

the Senate for us to grab seven votes, but McConnell may hold his side as a block against the vote causing us to come up short. In that case it seems that things are back to square one.

[karynnj]

25. Unless the Republicans decide not to filibuster it - which is unlikely

as they seem to filibuster things that then pass with 90 votes!

[Parker CA]

22. Other thought: what if Boehner plan ends up garnering some Dem votes, enough to help it slide

through? I'd assume GOP would support en masse which would then bring the question of whether or not some Senate Dems would vote with the GOP? Seems unlikely, but all of this is such a clusterfuck, and with the deadline coming closer each day, depending on when the vote would happen, I could see flips from both sides if it would avoid default.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

29. Which Dems are feeling suicidal right now?

:shrug: Pelosi & Hoyer need to ensure that whatever Boehner passes out of the House doesn't attract significant "bipartisan" support and that- if it passes at all- consists almost entirely of Republican votes. Given the rejection of the Boehner plan in the House, I'm not even sure it will pass at all. Boehner needs to face up to the fact that the Reid plan (or something very similar) seems to be about the only plan that has any realistic prospect of bipartisan support and approval in both houses.

[sadbear]

28. Do they have 60 votes in the Senate for the Reid bill?

You know DeMinted is going to filibuster.

[apnu]

32. Heh, let him. Then the GOP will really "own" (the blame for) this crisis. (nt)

[apnu]

31. This explains Cantors comment saying "quit whining and vote" (nt)

[Armstead]

34. And we still get struck with the GOP plan with a "pretty pink bow" as Reid himself said

Describing his own plan.

That is what is called a phyrric victory.

[Fearless]

36. So whose plan doesn't cut social programs? I.e. which one is democratic?

[Inuca]

37. It may be a bit closer to crash & burn now

just saw that CBO scored it and found roughly one third short, in other words it cuts one third less than it claims to. Rather "gimicky", woulnd't you say? And it should definitely endear it to those who were reluctant to vote for it in the first place. Boehner is supposedly rewritting it now.

[Jim Lane]

38. Don't assume that all Dems will support the Reid plan

We could find that Progressive Caucus members oppose it because of its vicious assault on the bottom 98%, while the Tea Partiers oppose it because the assault isn't vicious enough.

In the Senate, every "defection" (by a Democrat or by Bernie Sanders) means one more Republican vote that Reid has to scrounge up to reach 60.

If I were in Congress, I would vote No on all these plans. When default looms, let them schedule a vote on a nice, clean bill, like the ones passed routinely when the Republicans held the White House and both houses of Congress. If they don't want a nice, clean bill, then screw them. The default is on their heads.