What are the chances that a clean bill will be passed at the last minute?

[DaveofCali]

The only way out of this that I see is if the non-tea party Republicans unite with the Democrats in the House to pass a Clean Bill to raise the Debt Ceiling at the last minute. Is it possible to have it sent out like this? And if so, what do you think are the chances that this will happen?

[SusanaMontana41]

1. Great question. No idea how this will play out. But

the working class will lose.

[murielm99]

2. It's hard to say.

We would all like reassurance and release from this anxiety, but it's not going to happen.

Today was interesting. More people are speaking out and turning against the baggers. They seem impervious to pressure. Their own party will have to reign them in.

I don't see a clean bill at the last minute. I see some action on Obama's part at the last minute, but I don't know what. Let's hope he does not sell us out.

[Tx4obama]

3. If there is no agreement between the Dems, the GOP, and the President

then I'd be watching August 1st around 11pm EST for a quick vote in the Senate and House for an up and down vote for a clean debt ceiling bill.

Chances of it happening if the situation isn't resolved by the evening of August 1st - in my opinion: 90%

[gateley]

6. So if the Senate were to pass something like that @ 11pm,

what then? Could it go to Obama for signing?

I always thought it was House to Senate back to House to President, but I'm not sure I was correct... ?

[Tx4obama]

8. Yes, if something is passed in the 11th hour, then there is time to get it to the president...

and he'd sign it by midnight.

Lawrence O'donnell says a clean bill would be ONE PAGE, with basically one sentence on it specifying the dollar amount.

Lawrence held up a copy of a previous one that was passed and signed on his show yesterday and again this evening.

The House, Senate, and President probably could have it all done within 30 minutes.

p.s. I think the only time it goes House-Senate-House, or Senate-House-Senate... is if either the House or Senate changes something after one of them passes it.
If neither the House or Senate changes any of the wording it can go straight to the President to be signed after the House and Senate vote and pass it.

[gateley]

9. Lawrence actually wrote one once! Hopefully they can/will do that!

Like Lawrence said, all you have to do is change one number!

But what about the House? I'm confused.

Also, did you hear about it happening in, I think, 1997? Jan Schakowsky was telling about it, how they were playing their games and technically didn't get it signed in time. The interest rates immediately went up (I think she said 6%?) and even though they "fixed" it right away, the rates never came back down. We can't allow that to happen again.

Well, I'm relieved to hear that's a possible option. I would tend to think that's what they'd do at 11pm on the eve of the 1st, don't you?

[Tx4obama]

12. The interest rates would NOT immediately go up ...

The S&P has to decide to down grade our rating first and then after that the interest rates would go up. That's not going to happen in the middle of the night. Also, even if the debt ceiling bill does get signed the S&P could still lower the USA's rating.

I didn't hear anything about it not being signed in time in the past. I haven't heard anyone mention that until you just did now.

[gateley]

15. I'll see if I can find some info on it and be back -- I heard her

on the radio and I'm not even sure on whose show, so I'll look elsewhere.

[Tx4obama]

13. I don't understand what you mean by "What about the House?"

After the House passes the same clean bill with the same wording as the Senate (or vice-versa), then it would be sent over to the president to sign.

Edited to fix typo.

[gateley]

14. Oh - I was interpreting that just the Senate would pass then

straight on to Obama - no House participation at all. I was just misunderstanding, which is why I was confused.

Wow - what a nightmare.

[Tx4obama]

16. Oh no.

Any 'bill' has to be signed by the House and the Senate before Obama can sign it.

The Senate can do 'some' things without the House such as confirming administration and federal judicial nominees,
but 'bills' have to be passed by both the House and the Senate.

[gateley]

17. Here's what I found on the default (as usual, my "facts" were

off).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/11/usa-debt-default-idUSN1E76A0XA20110711

[Tx4obama]

18. Thank you for finding and posting the link :) n/t

[karynnj]

45. As it is not a budget bill, I think it could start in either House

There are various ways it can work, but they all require that both Houses pass the exact same bill.

[joshcryer]

11. Agreed. 90% is about right. If it doesn't happen, the President will invoke the 14th.

[Cosmocat]

39. Been saying this for a while now ...

Part of why the white house backed off on Boehner ... Inherently, as a side issue, the white house not calling him a douchebag hurts him with the wingnuts ...

BUT, end of the day, it really looks as though the only way this works out is Boehner putting up a clean bill the Ds can carry with about 30 or so Rs who know they can survive a primary from a derganged tea party nut ...

Canton is a big enough childish jackwagon to let it crash and burn, but Boehner knows the debt ceiling HAS to be raised ...

[gateley]

4. I thought Boehner was a non-tea party Republican, but he's

being yanked around by the them so fast his head is snapping.

But you bring up a good point. I'm not sure the "normal" Republicans (oxymoron?) would risk going against them. I saw a Dem congressman on TV the other day who said the non-TP's had been telling him that they realize the seriousness of the situation and that Boehner, et al, were essentially pulling political stunts, but if they didn't go along, they'd be primaried in the next elections. He used the phrase "looking over their shoulders". They're afraid of their own colleagues, and they're new, politically un-savvy little showboaters to whom it's all a game.

And I'm interested to see if others think it could happen, and what the chances might be, because I haven't got a clue.

[cutlassmama]

5. It will be either a clean bill or the 14h amendment option

[EC]

7. The House needs votes from the Dems..

the only way to do that and still get repub votes would be a clean bill.

[Cosmocat]

40. Yep ...

been saying that for a while ...

Boehner is going to have to find about 30 or so republicans who know they can withstand the impending primary challenge from some adolescent tea bag puke to pair up with the Ds to get a simple up and down vote through the house ...

[Joe Bacon]

10. Zero. The default is on.

I expect House Republicans to dissolve like an Alka Seltzer. Nothing will pass.

[awoke_in_2003]

19. zero. the repubs are nuts. nt

[Demeter]

20. That's not in the game plan

There would have to be some serious backlash from the public.

They think they are all so cute, so smart. Bless the Teabaggers, though, for they will save social security and medicare.

[Tx4obama]

21. CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS CHAIR: WE WILL ONLY SUPPORT A CLEAN DEBT CEILING VOTE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4938372

[customerserviceguy]

22. I simply don't see it happening

We're headed for a technical default next week, the tea party has assured us of that.

[Lil Missy]

23. None.

[Major Hogwash]

24. All it takes is a simple majority in the House, 218 Congressmen from either party.

Boehner may have to kiss Pelosi's ass to ask for her help in order for him to save face and pass the measure at the last minute, and I have no doubt Boehnor will do just that because he is good at kissing ass!!

[brooklynite]

25. Also requires House Leadership to be willing to bring it up for a vote...

...which won't happen. Boehner could arguably pass a clean bill with Dems and mainstream Republicans, but would almost certainly lose his Speakership immediately afterwards.

[Major Hogwash]

26. Boehner has already said repeatedly that they will pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling

There is no way he will refuse to bring it to a vote.

[brooklynite]

27. Yes, they will pass an increase in the Debt Limit AS PART OF ANOTHER BILL...

They will NOT pass a stand-alone debt increase bill.

[Major Hogwash]

28. DaveofCali was talking about a clean bill in this thread that he started, though.

So, I understand what you are saying, but it is not what this thread is about.

Okay?

[AlinPA]

30. If the teabaggers tell him not to bring it to vote, he will follow instructions.

[Major Hogwash]

31. Yesterday he told the Tea Party faction to "get their ass in line and get behind him".

He will get enough of them to agree before it is over because millions of people in their states are relying on federal money in their districts.

[AlinPA]

32. I still think he wants a default as much as the teabaggers when this is all over on Monday.

[Hippo_Tron]

37. That's what he wants everyone to believe

The whole "Tea Party is tying my hands I'm powerless" shtick is a tactic to try and get more of what he wants. And the DC press are just eating it up talking about how dramatic it is that Boehner can't get his own bill passed. Fortunately Reid and Obama aren't buying it.

[Cosmocat]

42. All Due Respect ...

This is well past "theatre" ...

It is making Boehner look weak and ineffective. This concept that it is theatre runs counter to all that the republican party has been the last decade - in COMPLETE lockstep. No break from the party on EVERYTHING.

It is a veritable three ring circus in that caucus right now.

It is doing the R brand more harm than good. And it is making the Speaker of the House look VERY weak and ineffectual. Pukebag Russert Jr. was going on last night, but they were SO confident earlier in the day that they will get a bill done.

This is a legit break in the caucus, with lunatic tea partiers who genuinely are willing to let the country default. And, their REAL base of power, the BUSINESS types WELL past the point where they want to have this, 4 days from defaulting.

[Hippo_Tron]

46. Again, that's what Boehner wants everyone to believe

That way he can say to the President "I can't get anything passed the Tea Baggers, you have no choice but to cave to their demands". It's a common negotiating tactic. If Obama does cave, the process stories about Boehner's weakness will be forgotten within days.

[Cosmocat]

41. Boehner is a puke ...

But he is a TRADITIONAL republican, not a simple minded childish tea party jackwagon.

He KNOWS they have to up the debt ceiling.

End of the day, worse comes to worse, he finds the 30 or so Rs who know they can withstand a tea party primary to vote with the Ds in extending the debt limit in a clean bill or a bill with some reasonable cuts in spending attached ... Something small to give the Rs who go with it some cover.

[Hippo_Tron]

34. Boehner won't lose his speakership

IMO, the current alleged difficulties he's having getting his caucus to vote for his plan are just orchestrated theater to make Obama believe that the Tea Party is tying Boehner's hands. The Boehner bill could pass right now if Boehner wanted it to pass.

But even if that isn't the case and he's having trouble getting 218 with just his own caucus and maybe a couple of blue dog defectors (and a very few considering that Reid has said all 53 Dems and yes that includes Mary Landrieu and Ben Nelson are against the Boehner plan) doesn't mean it's likely that the majority of his caucus will vote him out.

[yodermon]

43. WHAT About a Privileged Resolution? n/t

[AlinPA]

29. Zero. First, teabaggers will not allow it and Rand Paul or DeMint would filibuster it. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

33. Nill, because Reid and Obama have already agreed to over a trillion in cuts

The Reid Bill has the $2.2 trillion number on it but it presumes savings from drawing down forces in Afghanistan and Iraq that were going to happen regardless of his bill. Now, before people accuse me of GOP talking points, Reid fully admitted this. He also pointed out that several Republican plans have included this accounting in their numbers as well.

The Reid plan is about $1.2 trillion in actual cuts. The debt limit needs to be raised about $2.4 trillion. Republicans wanted a dollar cut for every dollar borrowed. Democrats wanted no cuts and a clean vote. The compromise will be 50 cents cut for every dollar borrowed. Not surprisingly, half way between what the Democrats and the Republicans wanted. Also, it will be done in some convoluted manner so that the Republicans can try to blame Obama for raising the limit. So it will be almost 50-50 anyway...

[flamingdem]

35. The pundits were indicating that Mitch will go to the house and get things

in order for an agreement.

[MadHound]

36. If it comes down to 11pm Monday night, pretty damn good.

It will force the non-crazy Pugs to join forces with the Dems to do the sane thing.

[Fearless]

38. Best chance of any bill to pass... but very slim chance at that.

[Avalux]

44. The debt ceiling will be raised at the last minute, without a budget bill attached.

I predict this will happen, as it has been done in the past. Then the budget fight will continue....and continue....and continue....

[quiller4]

47. I agree a clean bill is the only way to go and a number have been working

quietly on this for at least a week. Peter Welch started the effort in the House and already has quietly built up quite a bit of support. Kent Conrad has been doing the same in the Senate.

[MilesColtrane]

48. Next to zero

[DCBob]

49. Why would a clean bill be preferable to the Republican's than Reid's bill..

which had a ton of cuts in it? I just dont see it happening. Looks like its time for Obama to take the 14th.

[marlakay]

50. If they do pass clean bill then....

what a freaking waste of time, media, fear, etc this whole thing does nothing but piss off America!

[MichDem10]

51. Less than zero.

[boxman15]

52. Very likely in my opinion.

I see no progress at all in either the House or Senate on a deal that will work for Democrats and non-Tea Party Republicans. It's probably gonna go down to the last minute, and I expect a clean debt ceiling vote. All the Dems will vote for it, and I think many Republicans will, too, at least the ones with a little bit of sanity in them.

This is literally going to be a last minute thing. I'm expecting something signed at 11:59 PM on August 2nd, honestly haha.