When in doubt- - ask Intrade:

[Douglas Carpenter]

Presidential winner - by party:

Democratic Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election - 50.9%

Republican Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election - 47.8%


http://intrade.net/market/listing/showEvent.faces?e=28883

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Democratic Nomination:

Barack Obama to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 91.5%


http://intrade.net/market/listing/showEvent.faces?e=29950



Barack Obama to face serious primary challenger for 2012 Democratic nomination - 13%



http://intrade.net/market/listing/showEvent.faces?e=33540

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Republican nomination:

I've tried to list everyone who scored 1% or higher:


Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 35%


Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 30.5%


Jon Huntsman to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 7%


Sarah Palin to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 6.5%


Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 6.5%


Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 4.6%


Rudy Giuliani to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 1.9%


Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 - 1.2%



http://intrade.net/market/listing/showEvent.faces?e=29951

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. The Only Thing I Disagree With The Order Of Romney And Perry

However I would rather face Perry...

[provis99]

2. Intrade is fascinating.

If I had money, I would have made tons betting on my choices in politics over the last 10 years.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Tried To Get On To Bet HRC In CA and MA But I Couldn't Log On In 08

~

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. I do find it to be a good weather vane

keeping in mind that like a weather vane - it responds very quickly to changes. I know that they never predicted long in advance that Palin would be the Republican V.P. nominee. But once the "market" got wind that something was going on with Palin - she jumped to the head of the pack very quickly. When it came to a state by state breakdown of how the 2008 election they quite accurately reflected the day by day and hour by hour trends.

[CakeGrrl]

4. Gotta widen the D/R Pres gap. Close enough for the 5-4 SCOTUS to steal if need be. -nt

[Yavin4]

6. Bet It All on Cain

Everything on Cain to win.