PPP: Obama keeps hitting record lows

[flpoljunkie]

Let's hope he's hit bottom and that the president will go big in his jobs speech next week.

August 30, 2011

Obama keeps hitting record lows

In our national polling for Daily Kos Barack Obama has hit a record low approval rating 3 weeks in a row now. He's gone from 43/53 to 42/53 to now 42/54 in our poll this week.

What might be most noteworthy is this week's poll is how bad Obama's numbers are with a few key and usually dependable Democratic constituencies. He's under water in union households at 44/47. He's also under water with voters under 30 at 45/48. The Northeast tends to a pretty dependable region for Democrats but Obama's under water there at 47/49. Obama's usually been able to hold his ground with female voters but he's under water with them too at 45/49. And even with African Americans his approval rating's down to 76%, about as low as we've ever found it.

I wrote a blog post last week about how Democratic enthusiasm was at a year long low. Now it's at a lower year long low with only 47% of the party's voters 'very excited' about voting this year compared to 58% of Republicans.

There is perhaps one piece of good news for Obama these days and that's the surge of Rick Perry, who our polling suggests is not as strong a general election candidate as Mitt Romney. Perry fared 6 points worse than Romney against Obama in our national poll last week and does 7 points worse on South Carolina numbers we're releasing tomorrow. Obama trails a generic opponent 48-44 on our national poll this week, including 51-37 with independents. He has to hope Perry proves to be something worse than generic. And although Perry's off to a good start with Republicans, Democrats and independents don't think much of him. So that's possible.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/08/obama-keeps-hitting-record-lows.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. It's The Economy, Stupid (NOT YOU)

Unless and until it improves his numbers won't either.

"Life isn't fair." He didn't create this mess, wasn't given enough time to fix it, but alas, he is being blamed for it.

[BeyondGeography]

2. I think that's a misread

He's losing support with his natural base; union members, younger voters, women. A lot of that is retrieveable, if he plays a better brand of baseball.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Am Speaking As An Observer And A Not A Partisan

I just don't see a pathway to reelection if the economy remains in the doldrums. Maybe it will change but even the CBO is predicting > 8% unemployment through 2014.

Usually the party with the more energized base had the advantage. Right now, that's not us.

[BeyondGeography]

6. You should watch the Lichtman clip anyway

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. Lichtman was great on Larry's how last night. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Will Later

TY. It's unavailable where I'm posting from.

[tblue]

9. Well, I hope he plays it soon.

I don't know if he will. I'm hoping. This is why I've been begging him not to ignore the base. I knew this would happen and I was right (not just me of course). But I would much rather have been wrong!

[BeyondGeography]

10. You and me both

[flpoljunkie]

3. Allan Lichtman would disagree with you, but surely voters must feel Pres. Obama's fighting for them.

Never Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

Lichtman was on The Last Word last night. Worth watching. Video link below.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/44350628#44350628

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. His Model Has Been Effect Since 1984.

Let's say a president held thirteen of fourteen keys but unemployment was twenty percent would you or he predict he would be reelected?

Of course not. Then it becomes a matter of degree. How far off does one of his keys have to be.

[Imajika]

14. Lichtman's model is likely feel good garbage..

I have precisely zero confidence in Lichtman’s 13 keys.

Nate pretty much blows up the 13 keys nonsense here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/

[mikekohr]

13. "I Screwed You All But Thanks For Blaming the Black Guy.""

?

[Larkspur]

11. That's what happens when you follow the advice of the "Wrong Way" Democratic advisors

I affectionately call the "Third Way" Democrats the "Wrong Way" Democrats or the "Republican Wing" of the Democratic Party.

[flpoljunkie]

12. Those advisors who let the Republicans frame the debate emphasizing deficits and debts over jobs

Why let the Tea Party frame the debate? Did they not read the exit polls that said the economy and jobs were voters' biggest concern!