President Obama is going to win re-election.

[ProSense]

It's going to take a lot of work, but these factors are working in President Obama's favor:

Many people view him as the best or one of the best Presidents of their lifetime.

People are hearing his jobs message and it is resonating with an overwhelming majority.

More people are becoming aware that the Republicans' strategy is simply to obstruct.

Many people understand that a lot is a stake in the next election.

Many people view the Republican candidates as dangerous.

Once a Republican candidate is chosen, the differences between the President's vision for the country and the Republican nominee's will be amplified.






edited typo.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I agree.

[The Wielding Truth]

2. Hey. If CaliforniaPeggy agrees, that's good enough for me. I agree, too.

:patriot: :thumbsup:

[Tarheel_Dem]

Agreed!

:dem:

[RBInMaine]

3. Very good. And I agree. And EVERYONE on DEMOCRATIC Underground should rec this post.

[SidDithers]

4. +1...nt

Sid

[trueblue2007]

47. YEPPERS...... I JUST DID

[struggle4progress]

5. Being overly optimistic is just as dangerous as being overly pessimistic:

we can't foretell the future -- we can only make some efforts to try to influence it

[Andy823]

8. I agree

And the best thing we can do is to make sure we not only get ourselves out to vote, but we encourage others we know to do the same thing!:bounce:

[NBachers]

6. I'll work to make this a reality

[unblock]

7. agreed. lichtman's keys still point that way, pretty confidently.

second terms are rarely consequential, however. in the present case, the right-wing power structure is not going to come down any time soon, so obama's not going to be able to accomplish much legislatively in a second term.

of course, even an ineffectual second term would be far better than a disastrous first term for romney or perry or any other republican for that matter.

if only for the potential impact on the supreme court (both offensively and defensively), we need obama to win.

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. If Obama does nothing more than use his veto powers to stop the onslaught...

of harcore rightwing legislation, I'll be satisfied. You're probably right, he probably won't get a lot done in terms of progressive legislation, but 2014 might be another wave election, and he can use his last two years to make a couple of judical appointments, and keep Israel from attacking Iran.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Gallup: Majority Rates Obama Same or Worse Compared With Bush

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149666/majority-sees-obama-performing-worse-bush.aspx">Majority Rates Obama Same or Worse Compared With Bush

PRINCETON, NJ -- Asked to compare Barack Obama with George W. Bush, Americans are more inclined to say Obama has been a better (43%) rather than a worse (34%) president, with 22% seeing no difference between the two. Obama compares much less favorably to Bill Clinton, with half saying Obama has been worse than Clinton and 12% saying better.

These results are based on a Sept. 15-18 USA Today/Gallup poll. Obama succeeded Bush as president during a down economy that is still struggling to recover. Thus, a key comparison voters will make is whether Obama is doing better than his predecessor, which would enhance his chances of re-election, or worse than Bush, which makes it less likely Americans would reward him with a second term.

It could be argued that saying Obama has been about the same as Bush is also a negative evaluation, given that Bush left office with low approval ratings and Americans generally did not judge his presidency to be very successful.

Indeed, those who say Obama has been about the same as Bush generally view Obama negatively, with 27% approving and 62% disapproving of the way Obama is handling his job as president.

It's in the bag.

[ClarkUSA]

11. LOL! "These results are based on a Sept. 15-18 USA Today/Gallup poll"

Got a primary candidate yet? Is Monica Crowley available?

[MannyGoldstein]

13. Three weeks changes everything. I apologize,

I just can't get anything past you.

[ClarkUSA]

36. Unfortunately, not "everything" has changed.

[Supersedeas]

39. That made me laugh.

[YellowCosmicSun]

45. you're not really sorry for anything, are you?

[ProSense]

12. I

"It's in the bag."

...said it will take a lot of work. From the poll:

"Majority Rates Obama Same or Worse Compared With Bush"

Don't just read the headline

"Obama has been a better (43%) rather than a worse (34%) president"

Democrats and a plurality of independents weigh in "better" and some believe he is better than Clinton.



Still, it's a single poll, likely bullshit.

[MannyGoldstein]

15. By "bullshit", do you mean the Gallup poll is likely unrepeatable?

I doubt it's unrepeatable. Very unlikely. Gallup does this for a living, they understand how to sample.

Approval polls show Obama's ratings are plummeting, too: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

You and yours don't seem to realize how badly fucked the 99% have gotten over the past few years. The 1% are doing better than ever. We need to turn that around.

[ProSense]

16. No

"By 'bullshit', do you mean the Gallup poll is likely unrepeatable?"

... I meant the poll, a single poll.

Here's a poll and another.

[MannyGoldstein]

17. So Americans dislike Obama less than they dislike Republicans

How does that disagree with the Gallup poll finding that most Americans think that Obama is no better than Bush?

I guess racing to the bottom is an overarching Third Way strategy, but it rarely ends well.

[ProSense]

20. Well,

"So Americans dislike Obama less than they dislike Republicans"

...one thing, it's causing you to employ a different spin.

[MannyGoldstein]

24. WTF are you talking about?

Jeez.

[ProSense]

25. Um

"WTF are you talking about?"

...I think you know.

[MannyGoldstein]

30. I guess it will be your little secret

Because I have no idea of what you're talking about.

[subterranean]

27. The headline directly contradicts the poll results.

The first paragraph says precisely the opposite of the headline.

[MannyGoldstein]

31. 34% think he's worse than Bush, 22% the same.

That's a total of 56%.

[Maraya1969]

55. That title makes no sense.

[NorthCarolina]

10. Maybe, if you can account for this

Progressive Notes: Stunning 5 Million Voters May be Unable to Vote in 2012 Due to GOP Supression

http://taylormarsh.com/blog/2011/10/team-h-stuning-5-million-voters-may-be-unable-to-vote-in-2012-due-to-gop-supression/

With Obama polling, among independents, even against Romney and the underdog against Perry, coupled with massive nation wide voter disenfranchisement by the GOP to the tune of as many as 5 million Dem voters....well, lets just say I don't share your enthusiasm. The Dems need to run someone plugged in to OWS, and they need to do it soon.

[JohnnyRingo]

14. I believe you're especially right about one thing...

We read polls and hear opinions from Repubs about how they support this candidate or that one, but when it comes down to Obama vs the final contender, the contrast will be stark and dividing.

While so many like Romney, so many more will not be able to see past his religion. The group of supporters who find merit in Rick Perry's far right agenda are countered by masses of moderate Republicans who fear his Texas style of compassionless conservatism.

In the end, Obama is a case of "what you see is what you get", and the security in knowing nothing will radically change will bring in the narrow middle that decides every election. Still, voter turnout is key.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[unblock]

28. just who is delusional? romney's no reagan & there are no shortages, severe inflation, or hostages.

obama's already well out-fundraising the republicans despite not even having a primary opponent.

he's the incumbent, he bagged bin laden, passed some significant legislation, has zero scandals, there's no significant primary opponent, there's no significant third party candidate, and he's charismatic on the campaign trail and romney is not.

read up on lichtman's keys. the factors that have historically determined the outcome of presidential elections point to obama winning.


lichtman's research shows that people, the media, the pundits, and even the campaigns themselves dwell on factors that do NOT ultimately determine the outcome of the election. that's not to say that they don't matter and can be ignored, but it does say that those things come out in the wash. ultimately, things like polls this far out don't matter unless they cause one of lichtmans' keys to turn against obama, such as a notable primary challenge or a notable third party candidate. there's some noise about only because the media wants the drama, but there's VERY little likelihood of anything significant there.

and no, YOU most certainly do NOT have anything close to the chance obama has of winning next november.
talk about delusional!

[ProSense]

29. Well

"i have better chance than obame does."

...Nader is looking for a candidate or six.

[JohnnyRingo]

35. I disagree

I think your personal disdain for the man impairs your judgement.
I'm going to do everything possible to get Obama re-elected. You can take care of the foot dragging.

[YellowCosmicSun]

46. You don't have a better chance than Obama, though

You don't really give a damn about the Democratic Party. Tell the truth.

[totodeinhere]

19. I have stopped believing predictions like this at DU. If all of the predictions at DU

were accurate there would hardly be any elected Republicans left in the the whole country. I remember how many predictions at DU about the 2010 elections came out wrong, but very few of the those predictors came back after the election to apologize for being wrong.

It is too far out from the election and too many unpredictable things between now and then can happen. I agree that polls taken now are pretty much meaningless. But the voters have made many stupid decisions in the past, and I wouldn't put it past them to do it again. Personally, I rate Obama as a slight favorite at this point mostly because any incumbent president is always the favorite all things being equal. But he certainly is no shoe in and any half way objective observer should realize that.

And then we have the whole issue of Diebold, dirty tricks and voter suppression.

[YellowCosmicSun]

44. Most the predictions around here are made by blowhards who dislike Obama

Obama's gonna cut Social Security!!!!

[GSLevel9]

22. Rah, rah, rah...

If the election were tomorrow he'd lose and deservedly so. He's been a failure. If he were a coach of a baseball team and the team was losing games and attendance were dropping he'd be fired. I firmly believe SOME good Dem is gonna step up and primary him. Hillary may respond to the cries of a hurting country and take him on... There's MY hope.

[ProSense]

23. Well

"If the election were tomorrow he'd lose and deservedly so. He's been a failure. If he were a coach of a baseball team and the team was losing games and attendance were dropping he'd be fired. I firmly believe SOME good Dem is gonna step up and primary him. Hillary may respond to the cries of a hurting country and take him on... There's MY hope."

:rofl:

AFL-CIO: Labor will stand by Obama

[JohnnyRingo]

38. Where's the money?

Your suggestion that someone's going to throw up a primary with just over a year until election is baseless without a quarter billion in the bank right now. A candidate would be nice too. You know, the kind that will run as a proud liberal who will lure the greater majority of voters with promises to pull the country to the left.

Don't look to the Democratic Party for funding either. Them and corporations will put their money elsewhere. That means you and the small minority of malcontents who think you can stop Romney and Obama from occupying the White House had better have some very wealthy friends and a plan that doesn't involve hypnosis.

I'm going to work this next year to keep the Obamas in the White House. You can take care of the foot dragging.

[YellowCosmicSun]

42. Your extreme bias disqualifies you as an objective judge of elections

[tropicanarose]

26. I completely agree......it is going to be a tough fight, but we will win.

[jaxx]

32. Bravo!

[BlueIris]

33. At this point, I think there's a better chance that I will be president in 2013.

Reading these OPs makes me laugh. And cry.

[ProSense]

34. Well

"At this point, I think there's a better chance that I will be president in 2013."

...there are at least seven GOP candidates who believe the same thing, including Bachmann and Cain.

[YellowCosmicSun]

43. You haven't been participating in US politics for too long, have you?

[Dr Fate]

37. I have no doubt about it. Nt

Nt

[Zorra]

40. I sure hope so. The alternative is unthinkable. nt

[YellowCosmicSun]

41. Damn right.

[Paka]

48. I would like to be optimistic.

But what about all the disenfranchised voters in the newly GOP controlled states? :scared:

[Upton]

49. Wishful thinking hasn't won an election yet..

unemployment is at 9.1%, Obama's approval as of yesterday, according to Gallup, 38%..53% disapprove. Neither of those numbers bode well for Obama's reelection chances..

[Mass]

50. We'll see. In the meantime, we need to work hard to make this happen, because the alternative is not

acceptable.

[flpoljunkie]

52. President Obama: 'Don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.'

Amen!

[mstinamotorcity]

51. Well while we know that the President Obama

is the best Candidate for the Job in the Current Field, We must not lose Sight of the Republican strategy to Shave The Points,in other words cut the Voting Numbers by Dis-enfranchise the Citizens right to Vote in a Free Society. They are Mad as Hell and they will do whatever they have to do to insure Victory. they are Working on Ohio, because they feel it is Corruptible. There are going to have to be more people at the Voting Booths Voting for the President than they can Deny with their Funny Mathematics!!!!

[Scuba]

53. I agree with all but one point....

...outside of DU, I can't find anyone who thinks he's the best President of their lifetime.

[indepat]

54. I plan to vote for President Obama if social security and Medicare

do not bear more than their fair share of the shared sacrifice needed to restore fiscal sanity during a period of time when the uber-wealthy and large corporations are allowed to continue to fervently suck at the public welfare teat. :patriot:

[truedelphi]

56. If the Powers that Want him to, yes, he will.

If he should fall out of their favor, no he won't.

The voting machinery is this nation it totally hackable, so it really is not about who anyone votes for.

[jimlup]

57. I do agree that Obama will win

However I have to say that my enthusiasm will be more than a little muted. Guess I was fooled into think there was actually "Hope!" back in '08. Now I'm just back to the normal cynicism.

Don't worry I'll vote for the ticket and work for the democrats on the ticket. But I won't work directly for Obama. I will keep my distance from them - thank you very much!

[Hutzpa]

58. That's a nice attitude to have

the 1% will love someone like you.

[jimlup]

60. Maybe but I think you've gotten it backwards actually

[Hutzpa]

61. I don't have anything back wards

I would gladly vote for Obama without prejudice, get it, without PREJUDICE.

None of this BS about how he did not pass my own personal bill therefore he
is not the hope I expected. That's the republic talking point you have
allowed to get to your head.

So, I'm very comfortable saying I WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA WITHOUT PREJUDICE, actually
I kind of like that, it has a swing to it.

"I will vote for Obama without prejudice."

Can you?

[jimlup]

62. No

[opihimoimoi]

59. He gonna kick ass....the GOPers got mush for ammo

[Scurrilous]

63. K & R

:thumbsup:

[paulk]

64. the Democrats are going to keep the House in 2010!

I don't find these DU predictions very reassuring, myself.

The economy will play a huge role in the 2012 election. And the economy sucks and will continue to suck.

The only thing on your list that you got right is - "Many people view the Republican candidates as dangerous."

Will enough feel that way? Will enough feel that way to bother voting?

I hope so...

[Number23]

65. Already rec'd. Here's a kick!

[Name removed]

66. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProSense]

67. Point

by point, with spacing.

He's led this country on an extremely dangerous path by (1) defending illegal, immoral and unconstitutional assassination of citizens without due process. denial of habeas-corpus-related rights (his defense - I have the clip - of "prolonged detention"), continuation of the process of rendition (it's just not called "extraordinary rendition" anymore), his defense of what I'd call torture, and by allowing Gitmo and the facility at Bagram to remain open.

Bullshit. Rendition was a Clinton policy initiated before 9/11:

December 6, 2005

Beginning in the early 1990s and continuing to this day, the Central Intelligence Agency, together with other U.S. government agencies, has utilized an intelligence-gathering program involving the transfer of foreign nationals suspected of involvement in terrorism to detention and interrogation in countries where -- in the CIA's view -- federal and international legal safeguards do not apply. Suspects are detained and interrogated either by U.S. personnel at U.S.-run detention facilities outside U.S. sovereign territory or, alternatively, are handed over to the custody of foreign agents for interrogation. In both instances, interrogation methods are employed that do not comport with federal and internationally recognized standards. This program is commonly known as "extraordinary rendition."

The current policy traces its roots to the administration of former President Bill Clinton. Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, however, what had been a limited program expanded dramatically, with some experts estimating that 150 foreign nationals have been victims of rendition in the last few years alone. Foreign nationals suspected of terrorism have been transported to detention and interrogation facilities in Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Diego Garcia, Afghanistan, Guantánamo, and elsewhere. In the words of former CIA agent Robert Baer: "If you want a serious interrogation, you send a prisoner to Jordan. If you want them to be tortured, you send them to Syria. If you want someone to disappear -- never to see them again -- you send them to Egypt."

<...>

This is another policy the President is working to correct. He reversed Bush's expansion of a Clinton program. Get the facts straight.

The ACLU praised the Obama administration for ending Bush's torture policies

WH fact sheet on Guantanamo Executive Order and ACLU response

Reid is finally aligning the legislation with the President's goal for Guantanamo.

He added to the notorious banker bailout, while failing to compel the Fed to build up manufacturing in this country through credit policy.

What utter nonsense. Last year, manufacturing added net jobs for the first time since 1997 and has been the bright spot of this recovery.

The notorious federalization of our food supply (see the topic of the Food Safety Modernization Act) happened under his watch.

Interesting: using drivel to oppose food safety.

Boehner’s District Suffers From E. Coli Outbreak As House Republicans Try To Gut Food Safety

FDA: Regulatory science plan positions agency to foster innovation through better science

The U.S. government has supported the illegal deposition of foreign leaders, so that Big Energy and Big Finance can get in there and engage in major exploitation (Libya, etc.). Obama supported this. Illegal and unconstiutional invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq have occurred, and Obama has continued these illegal occupations. Support of countries like Israel has continued at a level that continues to crush the American middle class, at a time when Israel commits regular and frequent war crimes on the Palestinians, turning what little territory they have left into prison camps. Israel illegally uses white phosphorus in its attacks (saw it on Amy Goodman's video - Hubby is a chemical engineer and knows it when he sees it) - one on the U.N. Right Works agency, on a warehouse packed with food resources. Obama has been all for this. Recognition of civil liberties is at an all-time low. Federal, local and state police uses S.W.A.T.-like teams more than ever. There's been an extension of the notorious Patriot act. Data on U.S. citizens is collected illegal by the N.S.A. There are federal fusion centers that obliterate the privacy of U.S. citizens. You can be denied the right to own a firearm if you use medical marijuana (unconstitutionally). Obama has blessed all of this. Obama claims the right to assassinate U.S. citizens without due process. He is every bit as bad as any Republican could be.

More drivel. Unless you been asleep for the last decade, Obama did not support the invasion of Iraq. Also, if you didn't sleep through the last two and a half years, you'd realize that the Iraq withdrawal is proceeding on schedule, and a drawdown is underway in Afghnistan.

He's shown himself to be a complete tool of Wall Street, and has failed to use his bully pulpit to drive through legislation making certain kind of derivatives illegal, pass a Wall Street sales transaction tax, or to raise the limit on social security taxes. He has gutted Medicare by cutting payments to providers. I could go on and on ... thanks for the laugh ... greatest president indeed (hahahaha).

More fact-free nonsense, which is likely what the lack of spacing was to designed to conceal.

More facts for you:

ACLU: Justice Is Served (Fair Sentencing Act made retroactive)

A Win for Free Speech: ACLU Recommendations Adopted by DHS!

[secondwind]

68. GREAT POST! K&R