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Sat Oct-15-11 10:06 PM
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Poll question: At this point, assuming an Obama/Romney match, what do you see as the likely outcome? |
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This doesn't take into account Romney's potential running mate (if Romney does get the nom). If that is a question you need answered in order to answer the poll question, just assume the strongest running mate in your opinion, and specify that in your reply).
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RoccoR5955
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Sat Oct-15-11 10:09 PM
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1. Landslide Obama. Dems pick up 120+ seats in Congress, and |
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15+ in Senate. My predictions. Help them come true!
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Ter
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Sun Oct-16-11 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
9. You don't really believe that, do you? |
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120+ seats in Congress? 15 in the Senate? Do you even know how many Republicans are defending their seats in 2012 in the Senate? They have only 10 seats up for grabs (and two indies). So even if they swept all 10 Republican seats, and won the two indy seats, and defended all of their own seats (23 Democratic seats), that's still only a mathematical possibility of gaining 12 seats in the Senate. And that would be next to impossible.
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RoccoR5955
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Sun Oct-16-11 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
12. I'm being optimistic. |
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People often fault me for being too much of a pessimist. I do believe that more people will get out and vote in '12, than did in '08, due to the economy. I believe that the RepubliCONs have made themselves look like a bunch of corporate clowns, and people all over are fed up. I do not think that many will hold their seats in Senate, because of this. Same for Congress.
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teddy51
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Sat Oct-15-11 10:10 PM
Response to Original message |
2. I don't think that Romney is going to be the guy! My worry is that we will get a last |
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Edited on Sat Oct-15-11 10:12 PM by teddy51
minute challenger into the Right side that may very well present a huge challenge to Obama.
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BlueIris
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Sun Oct-16-11 10:34 AM
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13. Don't think so either. Romney is a fake out. Red herring. |
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Lieberman. Bush. Maybe Palin (yes, I know that last one is unlikely). Any one of those three would beat him handily, though.
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Mz Pip
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Sun Oct-16-11 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
14. I don't see Palin beating Obama |
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She'd never get past her base of Palinistas.
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flamingdem
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Sun Oct-16-11 12:51 PM
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23. It's too late due to needed filings, I believe nt |
BlueMTexpat
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Sun Oct-16-11 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
24. Lieberbush?? Jeb or any other Bush?? Palin-the-Quitter??? |
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"beat him handily" ... in what parallel universe?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Nice try, though.
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begin_within
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Sat Oct-15-11 10:11 PM
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3. The upper class wins in a landslide. |
gkhouston
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Sat Oct-15-11 11:08 PM
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OHdem10
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Sat Oct-15-11 10:53 PM
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4. A nonth ago, I would have said Romney has a good chance. |
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However the Republicans just as they did in (94) have overreached. I truly believe the Tea Party has hurt them more than people in the Beltway Bubble realize.
Tjhe Country has been saying for eons the country is going in the wrong direction. Tea Party keeps pulling the Republicans to right. Now they are over there on the other side of Atilla the Hun. How do you think the Indendents are enjoying here them sqawk about Abotion Gay Marriage and Bash Immigrants. The Polls continue to say we are off on the wrong tract. Believe me, i could pull my hair out as those Advisors around Obama followed the Tea Party right along. The WH seems to be making some corrections. I digress. Republican Candidates are all wanting to either cut or get rid of Social Safety Net. Speaking of Political Tone Deafness in both parties. Our Conservadems can be just as bad. Even Tea Party supporters do not want SS Medicare messed with. When the country is scared to death--just scare them some more. Scared, are you, we are going to muss up the one thing you counted on --SS. The Crass Republians--We do not have the money for it. But we sure as hell find money for other things.
Simply Put, the TEA PARTY wore out their welcome real fast. They may still have a very small following but they have turned off the Independents.
Gobbs and gobbs of money, yes. The Dems can pull this out but they better start this week getting their messages out. It is not going to be easy. Conservadems need to work the hardest--their message right now is. We are will do the same as the Republicans --we will just be nicer.
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MADem
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Sat Oct-15-11 11:15 PM
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6. Romney goes home. Obama stays in the WH. |
CakeGrrl
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Sat Oct-15-11 11:43 PM
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7. "At this point" is pointless. |
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Where we are just around Election Day is all that matters.
Between now and then, much can and probably will happen, never mind the fact that the MSM has been chasing breathlessly after every GOP would-be contender while the President has yet to campaign in earnest.
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Anatos
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Sun Oct-16-11 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
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if I'm not mistaken, around Election Day next year, Osama Bin Laden will still be dead. Most people who pay attention to politics underestimate the importance of that, I think.
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Ter
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Sun Oct-16-11 12:38 AM
Response to Original message |
8. The same people who voted "landslide win for Obama" thought we would hold the House in 1994 and 2010 |
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Not a chance in hell he approaches landslide status, unless you consider a landslide 300 Electoral Votes, which I'd be surprised if he got that many.
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BlueMTexpat
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Sun Oct-16-11 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
25. And you know for a fact that the "same people thought" |
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that we would hold the House in 1994 and 2010?
Wow, you're good.
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cherokeeprogressive
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Sun Oct-16-11 01:10 AM
Response to Original message |
10. The only important likely outcome is the chance that evangelicals vote for a Mormon. |
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Edited on Sun Oct-16-11 01:17 AM by cherokeeprogressive
I'd put the odds against that happening at about 99:1
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AndyTiedye
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Sun Oct-16-11 01:15 AM
Response to Original message |
11. Massive, Blatant Voter Suppression and Election Fraud in All Red States |
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leading to a Repiglickin' "win" ala 2000.
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polichick
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Sun Oct-16-11 10:41 AM
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15. Depends on which side of history the prez chooses - we'll see. |
Brother Buzz
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Sun Oct-16-11 10:48 AM
Response to Original message |
16. I'll pull a number out of my arse |
aaaaaa5a
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Sun Oct-16-11 11:01 AM
Response to Original message |
17. Here are the battle-ground states in question |
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Virginia-Lean Obama
North Carolina-Lean Obama
Florida-Tossup
Ohio-Tossup
New Hampshire-Lean Romney
Colorado-Lean Obama
Nevada-Obama
Iowa-Obama
Missouri-Romney (I'm not quite sure Missouri is a battle-ground state but I included it anyway.)
Every other state should be status quo in the red/blue format. The recent Survey USA result showing Obama with a double digit lead over Romney in Michigan (where Romney is suppose to be competitive) proves that. As strong as everyone claims Romney is, with the exception of New Hampshire, he really doesn't change the map all that much. And he could actually even be a little weaker in southern battleground states such as North Carolina and Virginia, where voter enthusiasm and turnout will likely determine the winner.
Looking at these key states, its hard to fathom Romney wining enough to get to 270.
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quiller4
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Mon Oct-17-11 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #17 |
28. Ohio is lean Obama rather than toss-up at this point |
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New Mexico is probably a battleground state that is lean Obama at this point and Missouri should be considered a toss up.
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mikekohr
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Sun Oct-16-11 11:08 AM
Response to Original message |
18. President Obama will take 52.3% of the vote |
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The president will probably garner fewer electoral votes. This nation remains as divided as ever. Nothing much has changed since 2008 except the volume of verterpitude and bile from the right wing hate crowd.
We will regain the House and hold the Senate. But short of a wipeout of Tea Partiers in the House expect another 4 years of obstruction from the Republican minority.
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polichick
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Sun Oct-16-11 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
20. That won't be enough with all the voter suppression - 5 million and counting. |
totodeinhere
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Sun Oct-16-11 11:18 AM
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19. I would rate President Obama as a solid favorite at this point but by no means a shoe-in. |
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Too many things can happen between now and then, some of which might be out of Obama's control. We need to keep working hard and acting as if Obama is 20 points behind. We don't need any overconfidence. I think that overconfidence was part of the problem in the 2010 off year election. Too many Democrats refused to believe that what happened would happen until it was too late.
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Overseas
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Sun Oct-16-11 11:24 AM
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21. Today it would be President Obama. Right wing PR will be searching for excuses to cover up |
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electronic election fraud and old-fashioned voter intimidation and reduction of likely Democratic voting populations with voter ID type programs, to make it seem like there is enough voter discontent to justify a squeaker in favor of whatever Republican they select.
They drummed up the Swift Boat crap to distract the public from the horrible record of GWB and make it seem like there was enough discontent to justify the amazing flip in vote tallies after midnight on election day.
But the TV pundits still had to engage in amazing peculiar discussions after that about how the exit polling in the USA had somehow gone wrong, even though exit polling has been used around the world to evaluate the fairness of their voting.
And our Democratic legislators didn't push for verifiable voting on paper ballots with results that could be audited, so strange things will probably continue to happen on the next vote.
Why did we win in 2008? Republicans knew there would be a great mess to clean up and they could obstruct everything because Harry Reid didn't use the nuclear option to filibuster the nomination of right wing judicial activist Sammy The Man Alito's to the Supreme Court. They knew they could use the filibuster to obstruct President Obama's most effective plans to make it look like Democrats are wimps and losers.
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JNelson6563
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Sun Oct-16-11 02:15 PM
Response to Original message |
26. @ the 4 votes "Romney in a landslide"~lolz |
Beacool
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Sun Oct-16-11 02:21 PM
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27. It will depend on the economy. |
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If things are as bad as they are right now, it would be another 2008 (throw the bums out) election and Romney could win.
:shrug:
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quiller4
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Mon Oct-17-11 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #27 |
29. You have to go back to the Roosevelt years to see a presidential |
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Edited on Mon Oct-17-11 01:39 AM by quiller4
election in as bad an economy. Then FDR was re-elected and most of the obstructionist Republicans in both house and senate were defeated making it possible for Roosevelt to move forward with New Deal programs.
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Beacool
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Mon Oct-17-11 01:28 PM
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32. Yeah, but Obama is no FDR. |
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I doubt that lightning will strike twice. It will also depend on who is the Republican nominee. If the Republicans are stupid enough to go with a Tea Partier (such as Perry or Cain), then Obama will have a better chance of being reelected. Although so much can happen in a year that it's too soon to handicap the results.
;-)
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mtnester
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Mon Oct-17-11 04:24 AM
Response to Original message |
30. So many states that went for him last time now have Repub Gov & SOS' this time |
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Ohio will be 2004 all over again. The suppression machine is already legislating even now, and Diebold et al will make up the difference. Provisional voting will be widespread, and no actual count of those votes is actually guaranteed by law.
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Douglas Carpenter
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Mon Oct-17-11 04:53 AM
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31. I would have to go with too close to call |
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Edited on Mon Oct-17-11 05:30 AM by Douglas Carpenter
Given that incumbents almost always lose when the economy is down and that no president has won reelection with 9% or more unemployment in more than 75 years - by all rights Romney should be a show-in. But, there are other factors at work. Romney so recently governed Massachusetts as a pro-choice moderate Republican. But acquiring the Republican nomination requires Romney to represent himself as a right-wing nut-job. This flip-flopping might make him appear quite disingenuous and along with his Mormonism could weaken the enthusiasm factor among the GOP base enough to undermine efforts to mobilize and actually get their people to the poles. Also the recent wave of anti-Wall Street working class populism can only hurt Romney and help Obama. If the Obama campaign is successful at representing Romney as a return to the policies that got the country into the current mess that it is in and also define Romney - like Ted Kennedy's 1994 reelection campaign did as at an out-of-touch mega-financier whose record is about taking away jobs - not creating them - IF the Obama campaign is successful at that messaging - then he will likely win however unprecedented that may be - given the state of the economy.
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malthaussen
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Mon Oct-17-11 01:37 PM
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33. Romney Will Get the Votes |
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... of the 33% of Americans who are apparently certifiably insane. Plus his mom.
-- Mal
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Mimosa
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Mon Oct-17-11 04:31 PM
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It's too early to tell. Every year some catastrophe happens. The unespected could change people's perceptions.
The biggest factor is and always has been 'the economy'. If a lot of people are unemployed, hurting, and more are fearful of the future it is possible they will vote for changing the party in charge of the executive branch.
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