At this point, assuming an Obama/Romney match, what do you see as the likely outcome?

[Skip Intro]

This doesn't take into account Romney's potential running mate (if Romney does get the nom). If that is a question you need answered in order to answer the poll question, just assume the strongest running mate in your opinion, and specify that in your reply).

[RoccoR5955]

1. Landslide Obama. Dems pick up 120+ seats in Congress, and

15+ in Senate.
My predictions. Help them come true!

[Ter]

9. You don't really believe that, do you?

120+ seats in Congress? 15 in the Senate? Do you even know how many Republicans are defending their seats in 2012 in the Senate? They have only 10 seats up for grabs (and two indies). So even if they swept all 10 Republican seats, and won the two indy seats, and defended all of their own seats (23 Democratic seats), that's still only a mathematical possibility of gaining 12 seats in the Senate. And that would be next to impossible.

[RoccoR5955]

12. I'm being optimistic.

People often fault me for being too much of a pessimist.
I do believe that more people will get out and vote in '12, than did in '08, due to the economy.
I believe that the RepubliCONs have made themselves look like a bunch of corporate clowns, and people all over are fed up.
I do not think that many will hold their seats in Senate, because of this. Same for Congress.

[teddy51]

2. I don't think that Romney is going to be the guy! My worry is that we will get a last

minute challenger into the Right side that may very well present a huge challenge to Obama.

[BlueIris]

13. Don't think so either. Romney is a fake out. Red herring.

Lieberman. Bush. Maybe Palin (yes, I know that last one is unlikely). Any one of those three would beat him handily, though.

[Mz Pip]

14. I don't see Palin beating Obama

She'd never get past her base of Palinistas.

[flamingdem]

23. It's too late due to needed filings, I believe nt

[BlueMTexpat]

24. Lieberbush?? Jeb or any other Bush?? Palin-the-Quitter???

"beat him handily" ... in what parallel universe?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Nice try, though.

[begin_within]

3. The upper class wins in a landslide.

[gkhouston]

5. +1000. n/t

[OHdem10]

4. A nonth ago, I would have said Romney has a good chance.

However the Republicans just as they did in (94)
have overreached. I truly believe the Tea Party
has hurt them more than people in the Beltway Bubble
realize.

Tjhe Country has been saying for eons the country is
going in the wrong direction. Tea Party keeps pulling
the Republicans to right. Now they are over there on
the other side of Atilla the Hun. How do you think
the Indendents are enjoying here them sqawk about Abotion
Gay Marriage and Bash Immigrants. The Polls continue
to say we are off on the wrong tract. Believe me, i could
pull my hair out as those Advisors around Obama followed
the Tea Party right along. The WH seems to be making some
corrections. I digress. Republican Candidates are all
wanting to either cut or get rid of Social Safety Net.
Speaking of Political Tone Deafness in both parties.
Our Conservadems can be just as bad. Even Tea Party
supporters do not want SS Medicare messed with. When
the country is scared to death--just scare them some
more. Scared, are you, we are going to muss up the one
thing you counted on --SS. The Crass Republians--We do
not have the money for it. But we sure as hell find money
for other things.

Simply Put, the TEA PARTY wore out their welcome real fast.
They may still have a very small following but they have
turned off the Independents.

Gobbs and gobbs of money, yes. The Dems can pull this
out but they better start this week getting their messages
out. It is not going to be easy. Conservadems need to
work the hardest--their message right now is. We are
will do the same as the Republicans --we will just be
nicer.

[MADem]

6. Romney goes home. Obama stays in the WH.

A little travelling music for Mittsy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM7-PYtXtJM

[CakeGrrl]

7. "At this point" is pointless.

Where we are just around Election Day is all that matters.

Between now and then, much can and probably will happen, never mind the fact that the MSM has been chasing breathlessly after every GOP would-be contender while the President has yet to campaign in earnest.

[Anatos]

22. Not to mention

if I'm not mistaken, around Election Day next year, Osama Bin Laden will still be dead. Most people who pay attention to politics underestimate the importance of that, I think.

[Ter]

8. The same people who voted "landslide win for Obama" thought we would hold the House in 1994 and 2010

Not a chance in hell he approaches landslide status, unless you consider a landslide 300 Electoral Votes, which I'd be surprised if he got that many.

[BlueMTexpat]

25. And you know for a fact that the "same people thought"

that we would hold the House in 1994 and 2010?

Wow, you're good.

[cherokeeprogressive]

10. The only important likely outcome is the chance that evangelicals vote for a Mormon.

I'd put the odds against that happening at about 99:1

[AndyTiedye]

11. Massive, Blatant Voter Suppression and Election Fraud in All Red States

leading to a Repiglickin' "win" ala 2000.

[polichick]

15. Depends on which side of history the prez chooses - we'll see.

[Brother Buzz]

16. I'll pull a number out of my arse

Obama, 53 to 47.

[aaaaaa5a]

17. Here are the battle-ground states in question

Virginia-Lean Obama

North Carolina-Lean Obama

Florida-Tossup

Ohio-Tossup

New Hampshire-Lean Romney

Colorado-Lean Obama

Nevada-Obama

Iowa-Obama

Missouri-Romney (I'm not quite sure Missouri is a battle-ground state but I included it anyway.)

Every other state should be status quo in the red/blue format. The recent Survey USA result showing Obama with a double digit lead over Romney in Michigan (where Romney is suppose to be competitive) proves that. As strong as everyone claims Romney is, with the exception of New Hampshire, he really doesn't change the map all that much. And he could actually even be a little weaker in southern battleground states such as North Carolina and Virginia, where voter enthusiasm and turnout will likely determine the winner.

Looking at these key states, its hard to fathom Romney wining enough to get to 270.

[quiller4]

28. Ohio is lean Obama rather than toss-up at this point

New Mexico is probably a battleground state that is lean Obama at this point and Missouri should be considered a toss up.

[mikekohr]

18. President Obama will take 52.3% of the vote

The president will probably garner fewer electoral votes. This nation remains as divided as ever. Nothing much has changed since 2008 except the volume of verterpitude and bile from the right wing hate crowd.

We will regain the House and hold the Senate. But short of a wipeout of Tea Partiers in the House expect another 4 years of obstruction from the Republican minority.

[polichick]

20. That won't be enough with all the voter suppression - 5 million and counting.

[totodeinhere]

19. I would rate President Obama as a solid favorite at this point but by no means a shoe-in.

Too many things can happen between now and then, some of which might be out of Obama's control. We need to keep working hard and acting as if Obama is 20 points behind. We don't need any overconfidence. I think that overconfidence was part of the problem in the 2010 off year election. Too many Democrats refused to believe that what happened would happen until it was too late.

[Overseas]

21. Today it would be President Obama. Right wing PR will be searching for excuses to cover up

electronic election fraud and old-fashioned voter intimidation and reduction of likely Democratic voting populations with voter ID type programs, to make it seem like there is enough voter discontent to justify a squeaker in favor of whatever Republican they select.

They drummed up the Swift Boat crap to distract the public from the horrible record of GWB and make it seem like there was enough discontent to justify the amazing flip in vote tallies after midnight on election day.

But the TV pundits still had to engage in amazing peculiar discussions after that about how the exit polling in the USA had somehow gone wrong, even though exit polling has been used around the world to evaluate the fairness of their voting.

And our Democratic legislators didn't push for verifiable voting on paper ballots with results that could be audited, so strange things will probably continue to happen on the next vote.

Why did we win in 2008? Republicans knew there would be a great mess to clean up and they could obstruct everything because Harry Reid didn't use the nuclear option to filibuster the nomination of right wing judicial activist Sammy The Man Alito's to the Supreme Court. They knew they could use the filibuster to obstruct President Obama's most effective plans to make it look like Democrats are wimps and losers.

[JNelson6563]

26. @ the 4 votes "Romney in a landslide"~lolz

[Beacool]

27. It will depend on the economy.

If things are as bad as they are right now, it would be another 2008 (throw the bums out) election and Romney could win.

:shrug:

[quiller4]

29. You have to go back to the Roosevelt years to see a presidential

election in as bad an economy. Then FDR was re-elected and most of the obstructionist Republicans in both house and senate were defeated making it possible for Roosevelt to move forward with New Deal programs.

[Beacool]

32. Yeah, but Obama is no FDR.

I doubt that lightning will strike twice. It will also depend on who is the Republican nominee. If the Republicans are stupid enough to go with a Tea Partier (such as Perry or Cain), then Obama will have a better chance of being reelected. Although so much can happen in a year that it's too soon to handicap the results.

;-)

[mtnester]

30. So many states that went for him last time now have Repub Gov & SOS' this time

Ohio will be 2004 all over again. The suppression machine is already legislating even now, and Diebold et al will make up the difference. Provisional voting will be widespread, and no actual count of those votes is actually guaranteed by law.

[Douglas Carpenter]

31. I would have to go with too close to call

Given that incumbents almost always lose when the economy is down and that no president has won reelection with 9% or more unemployment in more than 75 years - by all rights Romney should be a show-in. But, there are other factors at work. Romney so recently governed Massachusetts as a pro-choice moderate Republican. But acquiring the Republican nomination requires Romney to represent himself as a right-wing nut-job. This flip-flopping might make him appear quite disingenuous and along with his Mormonism could weaken the enthusiasm factor among the GOP base enough to undermine efforts to mobilize and actually get their people to the poles. Also the recent wave of anti-Wall Street working class populism can only hurt Romney and help Obama. If the Obama campaign is successful at representing Romney as a return to the policies that got the country into the current mess that it is in and also define Romney - like Ted Kennedy's 1994 reelection campaign did as at an out-of-touch mega-financier whose record is about taking away jobs - not creating them - IF the Obama campaign is successful at that messaging - then he will likely win however unprecedented that may be - given the state of the economy.

[malthaussen]

33. Romney Will Get the Votes

... of the 33% of Americans who are apparently certifiably insane. Plus his mom.

-- Mal

[Mimosa]

34. Obama in a squeaker

It's too early to tell. Every year some catastrophe happens. The unespected could change people's perceptions.

The biggest factor is and always has been 'the economy'. If a lot of people are unemployed, hurting, and more are fearful of the future it is possible they will vote for changing the party in charge of the executive branch.